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Mike's CFB betting picks against the spread for Week 12 (11/19/22). Every FBS college football game analyzed with his top wagers and NCAA best bets.
We have a monster Saturday this week with 53 games going on. We originally had 55, but Snowmageddon has caused the postponement of the Buffalo/Akron game. Virginia has elected to cancel the final home game in the wake of the tragedy last Sunday. 53 is still plenty enough to get excited about!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top 10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. Here are this year's results so far. What I learned from looking at this is that I really need to leave Eastern Michigan the hell alone and most of the Pac-12 is not my friend.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for Week 12 (11/19)
Navy at (20)Central Florida(-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Navy busts spreads because of their ball-control offense, but the defense has played well enough lately to make me feel a little better about this. I'm taking the Middies again even though they nearly gave me a heart attack against the Irish last week.
Illinois at (3)Michigan(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Chase Brown was hurt on the last play of the game against Purdue last week and Pat Bryant is in concussion protocol. If Brown can't go, the Illini have no chance, even against this spread. If Brown plays, they have an ever-so-slight chance. Even if Michigan is looking ahead, this Illinois team isn't good enough to beat them. Give me Michigan.
(4)TCU(-2.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
If I hadn't set my limit at five I would bet ten. TCU by double digits!
Louisiana at (19)Florida State(-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Ouch, that's a lot of points. FSU has been strong on both sides of the ball since the loss to Clemson. They have won the last three games by a combined 102 points. Maybe it's not so high after all. Give me the Seminoles.
Massachusetts at Texas A&M(-33.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This has to be too high. The A&M offense is a mess right now. Give me UMass.
Florida(-14.5) at Vanderbilt
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There is very little juice on the Gators even though they just throttled a South Carolina team that beat Vandy in Nashville the week before. I don't like the half and I don't really like betting on the Florida offense, but they are playing well right now. Vandy hangs around for a while, but Florida eventually pulls away. I'll take the Gators.
Connecticut at Army(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
One team needs to win out to make a bowl. HINT: It's not UConn. There's no way they should be a double-digit dog in this one. Army has scored just 16 points in the last two games combined. UConn's defense is good enough to hold them down. They may not win outright, but Army is not winning this by double digits either.
Virginia Tech at Liberty(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I must admit that I'm a little surprised by this line considering Liberty will be without Dae Dae Hunter. This offense doesn't run as smoothly without him. I don't trust Tech at all, but I have a hard time seeing Liberty winning this by double figures without Hunter. Give me Tech.
Wisconsin(-10.5) at Nebraska
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Casey Thompson will be back for Nebraska, so they might be able to play keep-away long enough to not lose by double figures. Graham Mertz had his one good game. Now he's back to being a glorified Spencer Petras. Give me Nebraska. This team is different with Thompson in there.
Northwestern at Purdue(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a ton of points, but Northwestern seems to be somehow getting worse. I know...I didn't think it was possible either. Give me Purdue.
Indiana at Michigan State(-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Given the state of the Indiana offense, this feels low. Give me Sparty.
Duke at Pittsburgh(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Duke's run defense has been surprisingly good lately. They haven't allowed a touchdown on the ground in over a month. They also haven't faced a back anywhere near as talented as Israel Abanikanda. Kedon Slovis can't throw well enough to beat Duke, but he may not have to. I'll take Pitt at home.
UTSA(-12.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
That's not nearly enough. Rice can't score to keep up with the Roadrunners. Meep meep!
(15)Kansas State(-7.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
K-State doesn't miss a beat with Will Howard back there. He is familiar with the system and has made huge improvements over the last two years. The offense is different with him back there, but not necessarily worse. K-State by double digits!
Washington State(-3.5) at Arizona
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We have seen the Washington State offense morph from the remnants of an air-raid system into more of a power run game. That transition is almost complete. They get to face one of the remnants here in Jayden de Laura. UCLA's defense has had holes all season, so I wasn't shocked by the upset. Washington State's seems a little more sound. I'll take the Cougars.
Houston at East Carolina(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm more than a little surprised that ECU is favored. They should be. I'm far more comfortable betting the over 67.5, but we do spreads here. I'm taking ECU, but definitely hedging with an over bet.
Georgia State at James Madison(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is JMU that much better than the middle of the Fun Belt? They have been proving it all season! Give me the Dukes.
(23)Oregon State(7.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I feel bad for Xazavian Valladay. He was pretty much a waste at Wyoming. He still is in Tempe. Give me the Beavers.
Boston College at (18)Notre Dame(-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is WAY too many. The Eagles are a different team with Emmett Morehead running the show. BC might not win, but this stays within 10-14 points.
Old Dominion at Appalachian State(-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels a little on the high side. Georgia State is the only team with a pulse that App State has covered by this line. I'm taking the Monarchs. They won't win, but they should stay within two scores.
(1)Georgia(-22.5) at Kentucky
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels like a game where Kentucky should compete, but I'm not sure they can. Will Levis and Chris Rodriguez are both considered NFL prospects, but the offense has been putrid. Both can be true, but they aren't usually. We are going to see what a defense full of NFL prospects does to these guys. Give me Georgia.
(2)Ohio State(-27.5) at Maryland
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Buckeyes aren't going to push any of their stars a week before Michigan. That also means they aren't likely to cover this line. Give me Maryland, but I'm not touching this.
Miami(FL) at (9)Clemson(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't feel like Clemson can take the top off of this Miami defense. Their only real weakness is in the secondary. The same is true of Miami. Jacurri Brown is going to have problems with that Clemson defense, but Will Mallory is a nice safety net. I feel like this is a little too high. Miami won't win, but in a game that is more likely to be decided on the ground, it should stay closer to 14-17 points.
(11)Penn State(-19.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line has gone dark at many Vegas casinos. I don't like betting Penn State by that much either, but I can't say it's not warranted. However, Rutgers held a lead on Michigan at the half and was ahead of Ohio State very early in that game. Moral victories, people. Sean Clifford has put up a couple of miserable stat lines in a row now. Will Penn State try to get him some work, or are the going to let their backs go nuts? Therein lies the conundrum. Give me Penn State, but I don't feel good about it.
(24)North Carolina State at Louisville(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Cardinals insist that Malik Cunningham's shoulder is fine. They said that last week. The difference is that they can probably beat the Pack without him. Give me Louisville.
Texas(-9.5) at Kansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
It has been 1,127 days since Texas beat Kansas in football. That streak may end, but it won't end by double digits! Jalon Daniels is back! It's time to get rowdy in Lawrence! Give me Kansas!
South Alabama(-7.5) at Southern Mississippi
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know that Trey Lowe makes the Eagles a better team, but USA has been good for a while. Give me the Jags. This feels a bit low.
Louisiana-Monroe at Troy(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is too many. Don't they know what Monroe does to spreads? Give me the Warhawks!
Louisiana Tech(-2.5) at Charlotte
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line feels backwards. Give me Charlotte.
Florida Atlantic(-5.5) at Middle Tennessee State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Owls are the better team, but that doesn't mean they always play like it. However, their dominance of FIU last week in a rivalry game is hard to ignore. Give me FAU.
(25)Cincinnati(-16.5) at Temple
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This feels high. E.J. Warner is starting to feel it. Give me Temple.
Iowa at Minnesota(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Iowa is a lot better than they were earlier in the season, but Spencer Petras is still a liability. Give me Minnesota to take the Floyd!
Florida International at UTEP(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That seems high, but FIU is wearing normal uniforms. We all know that they can't play in those. Give me the Miners.
Western Kentucky at Auburn(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I know Auburn wants a name, but the enthusiasm of Carnell Williams is infectious. Auburn is looking better than they have in about two years. Give me the Tigers.
Arkansas State at Texas State(-5.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Bobcats are money at home and the Red Wolves almost lost to UMass. Give me Texas State.
Georgia Tech at (13)North Carolina(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
That's a lot of points, especially for a defense like the Tarheels that bleeds them. Carolina has been really good at buckling down in the second half when they really need to. The close wins over Duke, Wake, Miami, and Virginia prove that. It also helps highlight the problem. Give me the Wreck, but I'm leaving this alone.
Stanford at California(-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Will Stanford be up for The Game? I think so, but that still doesn't mean they can win it. Give me Cal.
Marshall(-4.5) at Georgia Southern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low. Marshall beat App State outright and beat JMU and Old Dominion by more than this in their last two road games. Give me the Herd!
(5)Tennessee(-21.5) at South Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The only team that has been able to control the Tennessee offense is Georgia. South Carolina is NOT Georgia. Give me the Vols!
Texas Tech at Iowa State(-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yeah...I don't know. I really have no earthly idea. Texas Tech looked good with Tyler Shough in there and has three quarterbacks that can play at a high level. I'm not sure the Cyclones have one. Give me the Red Raiders.
Boise State(-13.5) at Wyoming
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low as bad as the Wyoming offense has been. Give me Boise.
(14)Mississippi(-2.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Arkansas defense is hanging tough with everyone. I think they keep this close as well, but I still like Ole Miss for the win. If this was above three, I would really have to think about it.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma(-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Both teams enter this game unranked for the first time since 2005. That year Oklahoma crushed the Cowboys in Norman. I don't see a repeat of that performance. If Spencer Sanders is healthy, this line is way out of whack. Give me Okie State.
New Mexico State at Missouri(-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is a huge line for possibly the worst FBS team against a struggling offense. What could possibly go wrong? I'm staying far away from this one. Give me Missouri, but by no means do I trust it.
(7)USC(-2.5) at (16)UCLA
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Bruins were caught napping by Arizona. My fear here is that USC fans turn this into a road game. Lord knows there are enough empty seats at the Rose Bowl to do that. The loss of Travis Dye is going to hurt the Trojans, but how much? Give me UCLA, but I don't trust it.
Syracuse at Wake Forest(-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Syracuse offense is a mess right now. I have to go with Wake. At some point, Sam Hartman will get that confidence back. I think it happens here.
UAB at (6)LSU(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Death Valley at night. This is normally a lock for LSU, but this really feels like a trap. UAB is a really good team. Give me the Blazers. I don't expect an outright win, but I do expect DeWayne McBride to make some new fans here.
Colorado at (17)Washington(-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
The Washington defense isn't really built to handle a spread like this, but I don't think they have faced an offense as bad as Colorado either. Give me Washington.
Colorado State at Air Force(-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These teams really don't like each other. The Colorado State defense has been outstanding for the last month or so. This feels high. Give me the Rams. They won't win, but this is too many.
San Jose State at Utah State(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is all over the place. The Aggies are now favored at most books by a point. The Spartans were favored by 2.5 to open. I still feel like that line is closer to the truth. Give me the Spartans.
(10)Utah(-2.5) at (12)Oregon
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't feel like the Utah offense is explosive enough to get to the Ducks as Washington did. I still like the Ducks outright at home.
Fresno State(-22.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too low. We all remember what Fresno did to Hawaii, right? Give me the Haeners.
UNLV(-10.5) at Hawaii
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Doug Brumfield has the Rebels offense working and this UNLV defense is better than advertised. I really don't like that half, but the Hawaii offense has really struggled of late. I have to go with UNLV.
As per usual, I have nine one-point bets. I ended up with 21 three-pointers, which is a little more than usual. 23 two-pointers is a little less than average. I went with five four-point bets and three max bets this week. I'm a little lighter at the top, but that's what happens when you get your ass handed to you every single week. Good luck out there! May your parlays be plentiful and fruitful.
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