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This is the largest college football week of the season with 65 games going on. All FBS teams play this weekend and they feature some of the chief rivals for each team. Our great weekend begins in earnest on Friday with 16 games going on. We've already had four of them, so that still leaves 45 for Saturday. I could get used to this!
I will fill you in on what's going to happen this year. I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
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Boise State(-2.5) at (21)San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I understand that Boise is the trendy pick here, but it is worth noting that Boise hasn't won a game in which they haven't had a 100-yard rusher this year and San Diego State just doesn't give up 100-yard rushers. I'm not a big believer in the San Diego State offense, but I am in the defense. If Boise has to throw to win, I'm not sure they can do it. Give me the Aztecs.
Kansas State at Texas(-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Does the generation-worst losing streak stop here? Since Kansas State has to turn to Will Howard at quarterback, it's a lot more possible than it was a week ago. Still, Texas has issues stopping the run and Deuce Vaughn is a nightmare for defense. Wildcats straight up. I have no faith left in Texas. They're going 0-for-Kansas this year....both in Austin!
Eastern Michigan at Central Michigan(-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Eagles have not lost a game by more than eight points since Wisconsin in Week 2. Give me Eastern.
Ohio(-6.5) at Bowling Green
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
We know what Bowling Green is capable of. We just haven't seen it in the last month. Give me Ohio.
Utah State(-14.5) at New Mexico
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I know the Utah State defense got lit up like Danny DeVito's house in Deck The Halls last weekend, but it's not like New Mexico looked any better. This still feels low. Give me the Aggies.
(16)Iowa at Nebraska(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What does this say about Iowa that Nebraska is even or up to a two-point favorite in some spots with a backup quarterback and backup running backs? Nebraska is 5-19 in one-score games under Scott Frost and Iowa has won five in a row in this series even when they haven't had the better team. Nebraska is the trendy pick, and I'm sick of losing money on them. I'm lowering the bet, but I expect a loss in moderately spectacular fashion. Give me Iowa.
UTEP at UAB(-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Miners are still getting no respect, huh? This feels a little high. Give me UTEP. I don't expect an outright win, but I expect the margin to be no more than ten points.
(4)Cincinnati(-14.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bearcats certainly made a statement last week. Now that they cracked the top four, can they do it again? They better. The competition is picking up for teams behind them while the Bearcats get a spunky but not respected ECU team. Give me Cincy.
Missouri at (25)Arkansas(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's not often that a team jumps into the top 25 on the wings of a loss, but that's what happens when you hang around with Alabama. Arkansas has been had through the air, but Missouri's aerial attack is nothing to write home about. Meanwhile, their rush defense is the stuff of legend, but not in a good way. Arkansas rolls here.
South Florida at Central Florida(-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This line is creeping upwards, which makes me think that Vegas expects Dillon Gabriel back. If Gabriel is in, he's likely going to have to knock off some rust. South Florida's run game is good enough to limit possessions, Tulane game notwithstanding, so I think I'll go with the Bulls. I'm lowering the bet because of last week's disaster though.
Coastal Carolina(-15.5) at South Alabama
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line makes me think that Jake Bentley is still out. If he is, I'll take CCU. If not, I'm flipping to USA.
UNLV at Air Force(-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This is too many. UNLV looks like a different team with Justin Rogers running the offense. We all know how good Charles Williams is. I don't think the Rebels win outright, but they'll put a scare into Air Force.
Colorado at (19)Utah(-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Colorado has looked better of late, but Utah has looked unstoppable. They mauled Oregon and the line is still this low. I don't think it should be. Give me the Utes.
TCU at Iowa State(-14.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that half, but TCU hasn't really impressed me at all aside from the fluke against Baylor. Give me Iowa State. Another big game from Breece Hall incoming!
North Carolina at (20)North Carolina State(-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Weird things happen in rivalry games, but it would be really weird of the Tarheel defense could suddenly stop the run. Give me the Wolfpack.
Washington State at Washington(EVEN)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This opened with the Huskies as three point favorites, but the public is riding the Cougars hard. I get it. They have played well this year. I honestly don't know which way to go here either. This is Washington's bowl game, and what would be better for them than ruining the Cougars' shot a the Pac 12 North title? Nothing. Is that enough? The Huskies have lost three straight, so I honestly don't know. Give me the Cougars.
Stay tuned for the Saturday picks! I'll have the spread picks up by tomorrow morning and all of the DFS slates by Saturday morning. I'm not going to let this last full weekend of college football go quietly!
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