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The last great college football season is underway and Week 1 didn't disappoint! Prime Time showed up and lived up to the hype. The thin air in Laramie claimed another victim. There were a bunch of almosts with FCS teams, and the MAC nearly sniped another Big Ten(14) team. What does Week 2 have in store?
I will pick every college football bowl game. Not a top-five. Not a top-10. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. So a score of 1 means that I have little to no confidence, and a score of 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points from year to year. Here are the results so far. I gained six points last week, so that's a good start. Please excuse the mess on the right side of the sheet. I am trying to update it to include my cumulative total for as long as I have been doing this with the point betting system. I'm going back through years of past articles and updating as I go along. It will be worth it in the end!
CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
I will be going to the betting window with all of you as well. Most of these I won't actually wager on at the casinos, but I have been known to stagger around 50 games in a week at various online places just because I love the action. Whatever your betting limits or needs, I can at least give you which way I'm leaning.
CFB Betting Picks for 2023 Week 2 (September 9, 2023)
Vanderbilt at Wake Forest (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This opened at 10 and is creeping upward. I get it. Vandy looked bad against Alabama A&M and makes me wonder how good Hawaii really is. Give me Wake. I don't like the half, so I'm lowering the bet.
Ball State at (1) Georgia (-42.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Yuck! This is up to 44 in some spots. Want to know how many FBS teams covered their massive lines against other FBS foes in Week 1? Two out of seven. Alabama and USC covered. Ball State really isn't a bad team. I expect another methodical beatdown by Georgia with much the same score as last week...which still doesn't cover this line. Give me Ball State.
(10) Notre Dame (-7.5) at North Carolina State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Sam Hartman interceptions vs NC State pic.twitter.com/BAxNjd1Duy
— Wolfpack Stats (@ncstatestats) September 8, 2023
Trolling like this is why I hope the Irish join the ACC for football as well. A lot has changed for Sam Hartman, most notably the team around him. I don't know that the Irish have the receivers that Wake did, but the offensive line and tailback(s) are much better. Is it enough? Maybe, but I'm taking the Pack and the points in Raleigh. I don't see the Irish winning this by two scores on the road.
(12) Utah (-7.5) at Baylor
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
I expect Baylor to come out swinging, but it's still not enough. The entire Utah front seven might be in the NFL within two years. Utes win BIG!
Troy at (15) Kansas State (-16.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
That's a pretty big number against a solid Troy team. I don't think the Trojans take this outright, but I'll be surprised if they lose by more than two touchdowns.
Nebraska at (22) Colorado (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Wow...Nebraska fans must be bombarding Vegas. This line opened at -7. It's lines like this that make me want to raise my betting limit to 10. Seriously! This is about a touchdown too low. Give me the Ralphies!
Purdue at Virginia Tech (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
There's only one book at 2.5 right now and varying degrees of juice on -3, so shop around if you're betting Tech. I don't see much of a reason not to after what Fresno State did to the Purdue secondary. I'll take the Hokies at home.
James Madison (-5.5) at Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I wish I could say that I'm surprised by this line, but I'm not. The Dukes should have been allowed to go to a bowl last year. I'm probably leaving this one alone because of the emotions surrounding this game for Virginia. James Madison is better on paper, but I'm still not touching this. I just get the feeling that Virginia isn't losing this game.
On Friday, a memorial tree planting and plaque dedication honoring Lavel, Devin and D’Sean on the Arts Grounds on Culbreth Road. Jim Ryan will speak at the memorial along with Carla Williams and Rector Robert Hardie. The event will be streamed live. https://t.co/b8MxNoEGoH
— Virginia Cavaliers (@VirginiaSports) September 6, 2023
Now the bad news for the Hoos. James Madison has won 17 straight games against teams from the state of Virginia. The last time they lost to a Virginia team was against William and Mary on Halloween of 2015.
UNLV at (2) Michigan (-36.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This is too many. Michigan doesn't care about style points at this point of the season.
(20) Mississippi (-7.5) at (24) Tulane
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Update: 9:30 am ET - With Michael Pratt officially a game-time decision, I'm flipping to Ole Miss. Even if Pratt plays, he won't be full strength.
This tells you what bettors and Vegas alike think about top-25 polls. Ole Miss is more than a touchdown favorite on the road. I don't know about this one. I feel better about the under 66.5. I like Tulane to keep it within one score at home, but this is going to be a battle to do so.
(23) Texas A&M (-4.5) at Miami(FL)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I picked Miami outright in Pick Em and I'm sticking to it.
Iowa (-3.5) at Iowa State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
This line is slowly creeping upward...as it should. Give me Iowa for anything under a touchdown!
UTEP(-1.5) at Northwestern
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Well, this is fun! I never thought I would see UTEP a road favorite against a Big Ten(14) team. There is almost no juice on the UTEP side, which tells you what Vegas really thinks. This feels like a sucker bet, but I'm rolling with UTEP.
Western Michigan at Syracuse (-23.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Wow, this feels high. Give me the Broncos.
Miami(OH) (-7.5) at Massachusetts
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't know what to think about UMass. They looked good beating a solid New Mexico State team and couldn't do anything right against Auburn. I'm not getting anywhere near this one, but give me UMass. This is about a half-point too high.
Texas State at UTSA (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
These teams really don't like each other and one of them just beat a Big 12(14) team. One did not. Give me the Bobcats to not get covered.
Kent State at Arkansas (-37.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
This feels a bit high for the Arkansas defense. I'll take Kent, but this is another one that I want no part of.
Marshall (-2.5) at East Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If ECU's rush defense really is that good, this is going to be a long afternoon for Marshall. That said, the ECU offense still can't keep up. Give me the Herd.
Tulsa at (8) Washington (-34.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
The Huskies just covered this against a better Boise State team. Give me Washington.
Appalachian State at (17) North Carolina (-18.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is up thanks to the Tarheels making the Cocks not-so-cocky. If you like the Carolina side of this, shop around. I've seen it as low as 17 and as high as 19 if you're taking App State and the points. I expect this to be right around -17 at most places around kickoff. I feel a lot better getting the extra point or so. I'm taking Appalachian State. I feel this stays around 10-14 points.
My formula has Appalachian State as 17 point underdogs, so getting 18.5 I had to take them.
— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 7, 2023
SMU at (18) Oklahoma (-15.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm disappointed that Tanner Mordecai transferred out before this game. The SMU offense looked good last week. So did Oklahoma's. This one is DFS gold. I expect there to be a lot of offensive fireworks and I will be really shocked if Oklahoma won by more than two touchdowns. Give me SMU.
New Mexico State at Liberty (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Logic brain says that the Aggies lost at home to UMass, who got throttled by Auburn. There's that little bit of doubt sneaking in because Liberty didn't cover this line against Bowling Green last week. The Aggies were a bowl team last year. The Falcons were not. I'll still go with Liberty, but I don't like that half.
UAB at Georgia Southern (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Tulsa transfer Davis Brin looked good in his Georgia Southern debut. Does that mean that the Eagles should be favored by more than a touchdown here? Not to me. Give me UAB.
Ohio at Florida Atlantic (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Former Texas and Nebraska quarterback Casey Thompson threw for five touchdowns in his FAU debut. Ohio suffered a close loss in San Diego to open the season and picked up the win against LIU. I don't know...That Thompson performance in the opener was impressive and the Owls are at home. Give me FAU in a close one.
Louisiana (-5.5) at Old Dominion
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I didn't get to watch any of the Louisiana game from the opener, so I'm not really sure what to expect from them. I did watch Old Dominion in Blacksburg and they looked pretty good against a Virginia Tech team that might be better than most of us expect. I'll take the Monarchs outright at home.
North Texas (-12.5) at Florida International
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
It was all FIU could do to escape Maine. North Texas hung with Cal for a while. I guess that counts for something. I'm not really confident on either side of this. Give me the Mean Green, but I'm probably leaving this one alone.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Remember Emory Jones? Lost his job to Anthony Richardson at Florida, then spent a year at Arizona State. Now he's at Cincinnati and looked really good in the opener. He threw five touchdowns against Eastern Kentucky...which is just two less than he had in eight games last season for the Sun Devils. I feel like this is a half-point too high. Give me the Bearcats. This is a perfect offense for Jones.
(11) Texas at (3) Alabama (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
If you do some searching, you can find even odds on Texas at +7. This has bounced between 7 and 7.5 since it opened. I feel pretty good about that half. Good enough to take Texas. This feels like a one-score game to me.
(13) Oregon (-6.5) at Texas Tech
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough set to face former team in No. 13 Oregon. That wasn't his original plan https://t.co/q8APo2SqMS
— KGW News (@KGWNews) September 8, 2023
Tyler Shough gets a shot at his former team one week after Tech blew a big lead in Laramie and lost in double overtime. This feels low. It's easy to get excited about the 81 points that Oregon laid on Portland State. The Ducks are pulling a Joey Harrington on Bo Nix. They have done everything they did for Harrington for Nix aside from the Times Square billboard. Oregon is going to leave Nix in there to put up big-time Heisman numbers. I'll take the Ducks.
Jacksonville State at Coastal Carolina (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The darlings of 2020 take on the darlings of 2023. I liked what I saw from these Gamecocks against a UTEP team that is a road favorite against a Big Ten(14) team. CCU hung with the Bruins until they decided on a quarterback. This feels a touch high. Give me the Gamecocks.
Connecticut at Georgia State (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
UConn impressed in the opening week, but I'm a big Darren Grainger fan. Give me the Panthers.
Middle Tennessee State at Missouri (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Missouri is expected to cover by about half of what Alabama did. Seems legit. Give me the Tigers.
Central Florida (-3.5) at Boise State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The good news is that Boise isn't as bad as Washington made them look. The bad news is that John Rhys Plumlee is a less-talented version of Michael Penix. Give me the Knights.
Houston (-9.5) at Rice
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Keep the Bayou Bucket in 3rd Ward.
Game trailer vs. Rice#GoCoogs | #TEAM pic.twitter.com/sRTPo6M55b
— Houston Football (@UHCougarFB) September 8, 2023
The battle for the Bayou Bucket is always a heated game. That said, this feels pretty low. Houston rolls.
Memphis (-21.5) at Arkansas State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Man, the Red Wolves looked bad in the opener. Still...this feels high. Memphis isn't really built to blow teams out. Memphis by 14 or so. Give me Arkansas State.
(19) Wisconsin (-6.5) at Washington State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I like Cameron Ward in this offense. That said, Wisconsin's newfangled offense looked pretty good as well. The line is falling a bit and I don't know that I disagree. For the purposes of picking the Cougars, I would rather have this line at 7 or 7.5. I'll take Washington State anyway, but lower the bet.
Charlotte at Maryland (-24.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Is Charlotte really this bad? Probably. Give me Maryland.
Eastern Michigan at Minnesota (-20.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This Minnesota offense was kind of a mess in the opener. Is Nebraska's defense really that good? I don't know, but I know that Eastern Michigan's isn't. Give me Goldy.
Arizona at Mississippi State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Those cowbells can be super irritating, but are the new-look Bulldogs 10 points better than Arizona? I'm not sure. Give me Arizona.
Temple at Rutgers (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
E.J. Warner had his troubles with Akron. Gavin Wimsatt is similar to Akron's DJ Irons. I think the Temple defense can handle Wimsatt and Warner is the best passer Rutgers has faced in a while. I like the Owls here.
UCLA (-13.5) at San Diego State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is how the Aztecs are supposed to look. This is what they do. The offense isn't that explosive. They love to run the ball and play defense. That is Chip Kelly kryptonite. I don't see an outright loss for the Bruins, but I don't see a two-touchdown win either. Give me San Diego State.
Air Force (-13.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The defense for the Bearkats looked the part. The offense needs work. Again, two touchdowns is a difficult number for an option offense to cover. I'm a believer in the Sam Houston defense, especially at home. Give me the Bearkats.
Southern Mississippi at (4) Florida State (-30.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
7️⃣ straight 35+ point games - the nation’s LONGEST active streak #NoleFamily | #KeepCLIMBing pic.twitter.com/qHqgp3B86b
— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) September 8, 2023
The Seminoles nearly covered that against LSU. Give me FSU.
Stanford at (6) USC (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's a big number. I feel like it's too big. Stanford is not Nevada. I'll take the Cardinal to not get covered.
Auburn (-5.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Jaydn Ott is going to have a hard time finding room to run on the Auburn defense, Can Ben Finley win this game for Cal if he has to? I'm not sure he can. I like Cal here, but I still see Auburn winning by about a touchdown. Give me Auburn.
Oklahoma State (-3.5) at Arizona State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I just don't see it. The Sun Devils struggled with Southern Utah, but the Thunderbirds are better than some FBS teams. The Pokes didn't look great against Central Arkansas and now they hit the road. I like ASU outright.
We have 47 FBS vs. FBS games this week. I bet nearly half of those in the middle (22). I also had six one-point bets. These massive early-season spreads are hard to pick. I only have 13 three-pointers this week and just two four-pointers. I maxed out four bets this week, so I'm trying to add some more points to the bank.
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