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Mike Marteny's CFB bettings pick for the Army-Navy game and the week 14 results. We take a look back before getting to the last regular season game!
Championship Week once again proved that college football just has a knack for sorting itself out. When the dust cleared, there was no doubt and no real argument once again over who the four best teams were. Expanding the playoffs will destroy the regular season. How many more times does this have to be proven? Give me the random playoff games throughout the regular season and the couple during rivalry week and Championship week. There is still, and has never been, a reason to go beyond four teams.
Oklahoma State missed out on their best season since World War II ended by about a half yard. Alabama beat Georgia to make sure they get their invite. Michigan stomped Iowa because....they're Iowa. Cincinnati went out and beat a Houston team that had won 11 straight. As far as Notre Dame, it's not really their fault. A look through their schedule at the beginning of the season made it look like they would have a legit argument if they ran the table. Instead, they struggled with a Florida State team that lost to Jacksonville State the next week and lost their one big game with Cincinnati. Virginia, North Carolina, Purdue, Virginia Tech, USC, Navy, Stanford, and even Wisconsin underachieved at best and fell apart at worst. The Irish made a schedule that should have been tough enough, but it wasn't this year with their opponents struggling.
We had 11 games last weekend and all of them played. The Cowboys ruled Jaylen Warren out to the public at about halftime, so there goes my Okie State bet. There's no thinking that this may be a bad week. I watched all 11 games. I know it was a bad week. The Army-Navy game still needs picking, so we'll get to that first before the standings heading into the last 44 games of the season.
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CFB Betting Picks Overview
As we all know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only. I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I am a simple man. I can't have that on my conscience.
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
No matter how mismatched this game may look, it rarely ends up that way on the field. Seven of the games in the last decade have been decided by one score. Of course, Army blanked the Middies 15-0 last year. Army is the better team this year, but they aren't clearly better like they were last year. This Navy team has hung tough with most opponents this year. This feels like another one-score game. Give me Navy. They may not win, but this stays close.
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CFB Betting Picks Week 14 Results:
I promised transparency this year, and you will get it, warts and all. I went heavy on Utah and Oklahoma State, so I think I lost some of the bank I've made up over the last couple of weeks. I should still be in the black heading into Bowl season.
Western Kentucky(-3.5) at UTSA: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
As expected, this was a great game. If you like scoring, that is. The 90 combined points was short of what the first meeting produced, but it still allowed me to cash on the over and the spread pick. That's a successful game. It's just a bonus that it was fun to watch. I'm going to miss this group of Roadrunners. I've been keeping an eye on Frank Jackson, Zakhari Franklin, and Sincere McCormick for around four years now. I hope they finish it off strong in a bowl game. We are seeing something incredible from Bailey Zappe as well. He needs four touchdown passes in the Boca Raton Bowl to tie Joe Burrow's record of 60. Tune in for that one!
(10)Oregon vs. (17)Utah(-2.5) at Las Vegas: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 5
There was never a doubt in my mind that this was the easiest bet of the weekend. If only Utah has started Cameron Rising from the beginning instead of a washed-up Charlie Brewer. What could have been!
(9)Baylor vs. (5)Oklahoma State(-5.5) at Jerry World: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Not having (and not announcing that they didn't have...I'm still bitter) Jaylen Warren hurt, but the four interceptions thrown by Spencer Sanders hurt much worse. Honestly, I'm glad Oklahoma State lost this game. One of my biggest pet peeves is when teams sit on the ball and quit trying to move it. Field goals are never a given. Neither is scoring a touchdown, even when you have six plays from inside the eight yard line. The Cowboys were more concerned with not leaving Baylor any time on the clock than actually scoring the touchdown to take the lead. With the way the defense had played in that game, I'll score the touchdown and trust my defense to hold serve for another 45 seconds. If I lose that way, so be it. It's better than playing like you have a lead and squandering a playoff chance.
Kent State(-3.5) vs. Northern Illinois at Detroit: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
I'm not entirely sure that the Huskies needed Rocky Lombardi at all! Jay Ducker plowed through the Kent defense and the NIU defense turned in their best performance in months. Congratulations, Huskies. You earned this one.
Utah State vs. (19)San Diego State(-5.5) at Carson, CA: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What is it with Utah teams and what-ifs? What if the Aggies hadn't insisted on splitting snaps between Andrew Peasley and Logan Bonner over the first month of the season? It wouldn't have helped them when Wyoming wiped the field with them, but it presents an interesting case for the BYU and Boise games in September.
Appalachian State(-2.5) at (24)Louisiana: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I knew this would be a closer game. However, it still felt like the Cajuns were in control of this game the entire time. App State hung with them, but their inability to stop the Cajuns run game cost them dearly.
(1)Georgia(-6.5) vs. (3)Alabama at Atlanta: MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Well, we can thank Bama for us not having a playoff controversy. You can argue against them at number 1 if you want, but honestly, it's a bit of a hollow argument. Michigan dismantling a painfully average 10-win Iowa team was nowhere near as impressive as this comeback by the Tide. Alabama owned the final three quarters of this game. Oh, and just give Bryce Young the Heisman. He was my favorite before this game, and what he did to the vaunted Georgia defense makes him the runaway winner for me right now.
(21)Houston at (4)Cincinnati(-10.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Houston collapsed in the third quarter after a strong first half. That's the Cincinnati defense at work. Make no mistake about it. This is the fourth-best team in the country. I don't normally put much stock into last year's bowl games, but I do in this case since the Bearcats brought back all but two starters from the team that beat Georgia last year. They're going to throw a scare into the Tide.
(2)Michigan(-10.5) vs. (13)Iowa at Indianapolis: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I'm an idiot. I took my "Harbaugh chokes" narrative way too far with this one. It should have been another five-pointer. Iowa didn't belong on the same field with Michigan on this night.....
(15)Pittsburgh(-3.5) vs. (15)Wake Forest at Charlotte: HIT!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I feel sorry for those of you that haven't watched Jordan Addison much. He's so good that he sometimes makes the veteran Kenny Pickett look good. Of course, most look good against this Wake "defense."
USC at California(-4.5): MISS!
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That's what I get for picking USC. Honestly, the offense played well enough to win this game. The two fumbles really hurt though.
College Football Betting Season Results:
5-6 is not what I had in mind for Championship Week, but so it goes. I am still above water at 368-363 heading into the Bowls. Army-Navy may as well be a bowl game! My goal of 55% seems a ways off now. My more realistic goal is to keep it above 50%. That's pretty hard picking every game!
Now it's time to tally up the points. The weekly totals follow the bet. Season totals are in parentheses.
1. 0-0 (60-72) = -12
2. 3-2 (141-149) = -16
3. 1-3 (120-84) = 108
4. 0-1 (28-37) = -36
5. 1-0 (19-21) = -10
I only lost three points, which isn't bad all things considered. If only I would have put another five on Michigan! I am still up 34 points on the season and up 58 points in nearly five years of doing this. I plan on having a strong bowl season. I've done pretty well in the bowls the last couple of years, and we have some good ones this year! Stay tuned for the Capital One Bowl Mania picks where you can join the group of Rotoballer readers for bragging rights!
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