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Antonio Losada identifies four NFL free agents on new teams in 2020 that could be fantasy football fallers and overvalued draft targets based on ADP.
There is no way to describe the average NFL front office. Each franchise has its own set of rules, follows different parameters when evaluating players, and builds its roster in a very particular way. Even with a clear mindset, an organization's principles might be tweaked in order to accommodate players into the salary cap, for example, which makes decisions even harder to take and for us to understand in some cases.
No matter what, every offseason we see the same musical chairs game. As the title of this column says, old and known faces always move to new places, whether because they find no love in their last team anymore, or because they're truly coveted by every other team around the league and paid big bucks to go play for other franchise. This doesn't mean those changes are always good, or bad, as each move is a case to study on its own with multiple potential ramifications.
For fantasy football purposes, it is easy to try and predict whether those moves fall in the "positive" or "negative" side of things. That is what I'll be writing about next, highlighting four players that had great seasons in 2019 but that, after changing teams during the past few weeks, are poised to regress and worsen their fantasy football production in their new surroundings.
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Austin Hooper, Cleveland Browns
Hooper's 97 targets in 2019 ranked sixth among tight ends. I'm very serious when I say that he should have been given even more looks because he excelled at football. He was a monster during the time he was on the field (he missed three games entirely) and in the 13 games he played, he went to average 14.7 PPG good for TE3 only behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle.
Will this version of Hooper be the one on the gridiron come next season? Let me doubt it. The Browns signed hooper to a very sweet deal while already featuring David Njoku at the position. Sure, Njoku has missed time and just in 2019, he could only make it to the field four times. Instead of bringing some backup for a potential Njoku injury, Cleveland has signed a TE1 and made Njoku his backup. Or has it?
I don't have any idea how this pair will operate, but I know the pieces surrounding both tights ends are far from few. Cleveland has two impossibly-good WRs in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, and two more great players in RBs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. At this very moment, I'd bet all four of them finish the year with more PPR points than Hooper, and that Hooper doesn't beat Njoku by many targets over the year (assuming both play 16 games). Not only was it going to be hard for Hooper to replicate such an efficient season as his 2019 was, but now he finds himself in a super crowded offense. Tough times ahead.
Peyton Barber, Washington Redskins
Barber was half of the one-two punch Tampa Bay used last season as its backfield sharing duties with Ronald Jones. Barber carried the ball 154 times to Jones' 172 attempts and was targeted 24 times to Jones' 40. He was the RB2 on that offense by opportunities and touches, produced a tad less than Jones (7.3 PPG compared to 10.4), but he was somehow a good asset for some fantasy GMs even in his diminished/shared role. On a much more prominent position in 2018 (234 rushing attempts, 29 targets), Barber reached 150.3 PPR good for RB3 levels.
The problem Barber's facing in 2020, though, is that if last season he was part of an RBBC in Tampa Bay then I don't even know how to describe what he'll be part of this year in Washington. The Redskins (whatever is they're aiming for) have five rushers in their roster and any and every one of them could very capably lead the backfield.
Derrius Guice is the ever-expected savior and he's healthy he should be the RB1. If he falls down, then Adrian Peterson should be the next in line. If age catches up to AP, then Bryce Love pencils in as the replacement. And then you find Barber and J.D. McKissic fighting for that last spot. Even if Barber becomes the ultimate rushing machine, it'd be virtually impossible for him to beat his 2019 numbers. I'm afraid Barber would go from borderline-fantasy-player to a complete afterthought in 2020.
Nelson Agholor, Las Vegas Raiders
Poor Agholor can't catch a break, nor a pass. See, Agholor played for a depleted Eagles offense last season, was targeted 69 times, caught 39 of those passes (not bad!), and racked up 363 yards with three touchdowns to finish the year with 94 PPR (not good!) and as the WR76. That's nice if you look at his ADP of 75 before the start of the year, but that's not that nice all-things-considered.
Nelson Agholor is now a member of the relocated Raiders and he will be looking to regain his mojo from the 2017 (187.5 PPR) and 2018 (165.4) seasons. Truth be told, Agholor missed time last season and could only play 10 full games. Even with that, his production was putrid with two career-lows in yards per reception (9.31) and yards per target (5.26). Those marks ranked 3th-worst and absolute-worst among WRs with 65+targets on the season...
It is hard to regress from that, as it was already bad, but there are no limits for Agholor. If you think the change of teams will help Agholor, you can forget about it. While Las Vegas doesn't have a single stud on their receiving corps, there are at least three WRs over Agholor in the pecking order (Henry Ruggs, Hunter Renfrow, and Tyrell Williams) not to mention TE Darren Waller. The opportunities will go down and Agholor's efficiency is horrific. His days as a 100-PPR threat (whatever good that is...) are over.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers
To my eyes, going from playing under QB Sam Darnold to do so under veteran Teddy Bridgewater in Carolina is definitely an upgrade. Robby Anderson must have thought the same when he signed with the Panthers earlier this offseason. The problem with this change, though, is that he was one of the best offensive options of the Jets in 2019 while he'll be just another guy in Carolina.
There is no doubt Christian McCaffrey will lead the team in opportunities and touches next season, whether on the ground or throw the air. After CMC, there are a pair of wide receivers in DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel, who should both finish the season over Robby Anderson in fantasy points (because they are better players) and targets (because they are probably seen are better players by Carolina and Bridgewater, and thus will get more looks).
Even with a deep-threat and burner profile, Anderson saw 96 targets in New York last season and caught 52 of them for 779 yards and five touchdowns. I have a lot of doubts he will reach--let alone break--those marks once again next season in such an already-defined offense as the Panthers'. Anderson could only be the WR40 in 2019, but I don't see him even getting there in 2020.
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