Free Agency Fantasy Football Analysis: Fallers On New Teams (2025)

With the first wave of NFL free agency coming to an end, several fantasy-relevant players have signed on to new teams. The quarterback carousel still has several dominoes to fall, but Sam Darnold, Geno Smith, and Kenny Pickett have found new homes within the first few days of the new league year.

The running back carousel has also taken off with the likes of Najee Harris, Javonte Williams, Rico Dowdle, and Elijah Mitchell finding new homes. With such an influx of talent coming into the league during the draft, the running back landscape will look a lot more clear at the end of April than it does right now.

Changing teams can always affect fantasy performance. These five players saw their fantasy football stocks take a hit with their new landing spots.

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Sam Darnold, QB, Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold’s career resurgence with the Minnesota Vikings in 2024 saw him finish as the QB9 in fantasy football. He earned himself a payday, signing a three-year, $100.5 million deal to be the new franchise quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks.

Seattle has been busy this offseason, most notably trading star receiver DK Metcalf to Pittsburgh and releasing longtime veteran Tyler Lockett. While it will add more weapons, the receiving corps looks very bleak behind star Jaxon Smith-Njigba. As things stand right now, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Jake Bobo are the next layer of weapons for Darnold.

Even if it adds a first-round receiver, Seattle’s offensive environment is a big step down from the situation Darnold was in in Minnesota. Finishing as a top-12 quarterback in fantasy this season seems like a tall task.

Geno Smith, QB, Las Vegas Raiders

Geno Smith finished as the QB5, QB19, and QB13 over his three seasons as the starter for the Seattle Seahawks. After turning down a deal to remain in Seattle, he was shipped to Las Vegas for a third-round pick to reunite with head coach Pete Carroll. 

While he has experience playing for Carroll, the situation got a lot tougher. Smith will go from throwing to DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Tyler Lockett to Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and not much of anyone else -- along with no ground game to support him.

While the lack of offensive firepower can still be addressed through the draft and later stages of free agency, the Raiders are not likely to create as exuberant of an offensive environment as Smith was in last year in Seattle. Not to mention, this team could easily draft a quarterback. Smith is only on a one-year deal and could very well be a bridge quarterback. There is no guarantee he is the starter by the end of the season in Las Vegas.

Rico Dowdle, RB, Carolina Panthers

After breaking out for his first career 1,000-yard rushing season, Rico Dowdle cashed in on a one-year, $6 million deal with the Carolina Panthers. The former Dallas Cowboy is no longer in a situation where he will be the workhorse back like he was this previous season, as he joins Chuba Hubbard in Carolina’s backfield.

Dowdle will go from a situation where he was touching the ball 22.7 times per game (over the last seven games of the season) to a situation where he is likely a handcuff to Hubbard and may only see five to 10 touches a game. Hubbard signed a four-year, $33.2 million extension last season, suggesting that he is the clear-cut lead back in this offense.

DK Metcalf, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

DK Metcalf was dealt to Pittsburgh, where he signed a mega $150 million contract. The problem: the Steelers do not currently have a quarterback under contract.

Pittsburgh will bring in a signal-caller, but top options are quickly deteriorating. It looks more and more likely that Aaron Rodgers may be under center for the Steelers in 2025. Rodgers mixed with Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith would surely call for a slow-paced offense focused on the ground game, leading to little opportunity for Metcalf to be a consistent contributor. His fantasy stock likely takes a hit while in Pittsburgh.

Dyami Brown, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars

Dyami Brown caught on fire during the Commanders’ playoff run, recording 14 catches for 229 yards and a touchdown through three games. His stretch of strong play earned him a $10 million deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, who moved on from Christian Kirk and Evan Engram this offseason.

Even with those two veterans departing, Brown will likely not be as high in the pecking order for Trevor Lawrence as he was for Jayden Daniels last season. Before last year, he had never eclipsed 168 receiving yards in a season -- and he only had 308 during the regular season. Brown will be behind Brian Thomas Jr., Gabe Davis, Brenton Strange, and potentially Parker Washington along with any new weapons brought in during the draft. His playoff run was nice, but it does not mean it will translate into sustained fantasy success.

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