RADIO
Last year I had the best late-round run of my fantasy playing career. In one league, I drafted Rashee Rice, Raheem Mostert, Sam LaPorta, and Puka Nacua all in a row, from rounds 13 through 16. Don’t believe me? I have the picture to prove it!
I understand I may never have a run that good again. While luck certainly played a factor in allowing me to get all those players, there was no luck in the reason I was targeting them. All of them brought one thing: upside and opportunity. That is exactly what the later rounds of drafts should be used to target. Draft upside shots in good situations and if they hit, they are league-altering.
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If a veteran is going in the later rounds it is often because we know what that player is. That is why three of those four breakout picks of mine were rookies. Once again, there are a lot of rookies on my list. They are the ultimate lottery ticket. You can also identify veterans in good situations like Mostert, who knew the system and did not have a ton of proven backfield competition. Upside is the name of the game and to be a late-round target of mine, you have to possess that. Every player in this article has an ADP in the double-digit rounds.
Fantasy Football Late Round Targets - Quarterback
Will Levis can be had as a low-end QB2 or high-end QB3, but the upside is certainly there. Last season Levis led the league (by far) in deep throws (21 percent), hero throws (9 percent), and first-read throws (73 percent). Now he has an improved receiving core, with a new playcaller in Brian Callahan who plans on throwing a whole bunch more. It may not always be pretty but deep throws lead to big chunk plays. Levis may not be the best for real-life purposes, but he certainly brings fantasy upside.
Will Levis has Jameis Winston (in a good way) appeal in fantasy football.
2023’s leader in:
+ Deep ball attempt rate (20.8%)
+ Hero Throw rate (9.0%)Throw him into pass-heavy Brian Callahan’s system and… 🎇🎆
Via @fball_insights, @ScottBarrettDFB and @FantasyPtsData https://t.co/YKKYjzAFHo pic.twitter.com/luEDeWQRgk
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) July 25, 2024
Justin Fields is perhaps the only backup QB ever that we know if and when he steps on the field as the starter, he is a must-play fantasy QB. He was the QB5 in fantasy PPG two seasons ago and from Week 4 of last year. Whether it comes from an injury or poor performance from Russell Wilson, if Fields gets the chance to play, he is back to being a must-start fantasy option.
Fantasy Football Late Round Targets - Running Backs
Austin Ekeler is going later than ever in drafts. I get it, he had a very disappointing 2023. Don't forget that he suffered a high ankle sprain in Week 1 that landed him on the IR. Once he returned, he sprained his other ankle. He then had to play on an offense that was barren of most of their key players. Ekeler is still an elite pass catcher out of the backfield. Plus, while everyone thinks Brian Robinson Jr. will see the goal line work, Ekeler has actually been more efficient at turning those carries into touchdowns. Last year he converted 45 percent of his goal-line carries into touchdowns, compared to Robinson’s 20 percent. Over the last two years, it is 61 percent for Ekeler, compared to 30 percent for Robinson. Ekeler goes two full rounds later though. Take advantage of the discount as Ekeler could have another year left at a high level.
“You’ve seem what it looks like when I produce. You’re going to want me on your team.”
You heard the man! Get ready to draft @AustinEkeler for your @NFLFantasy team 👀 pic.twitter.com/g7DRPAQ9EK
— NFL Network (@nflnetwork) June 26, 2024
Jaleel McLaughlin was top five last year in the percentage of runs to go for 10-plus yards (16 percent), 20-plus yards (five percent), missed tackles forced per attempt (0.29), and yards after contact per attempt (3.5). I have said all offseason that the key to this backfield is figuring out who will be the pass catcher. McLaughlin could shine there as he was better than Javonte Williams in that regard. With Samaje Perine now in Kansas City there is a clear opportunity for McLaughlin. He brings a lot of upside if he can run with this opportunity.
Kimani Vidal is a rookie to take a shot on late in your drafts. Last year in college he received the third-highest PFF run grade among draft-eligible backs (93.2). He also had the most missed tackles forced (98) and was 12th on a per-touch basis. What I really love is that he had the second-most explosive runs. He also led the group in carries, rushing yards, and yards after contact, so he can clearly handle a large workload. He will be on a team that is expected to run a ton and his competition is Gus Edwards, a 29-year-old who had offseason surgery, and J.K. Dobbins, who is returning from a torn Achilles and has a torn ACL in his past. There is a path for a lot of work for the rookie.
Ray Davis was drafted by the Bills in the fourth round. He is a bruising back who can be a nice complimentary piece to James Cook. Davis is a three-down back that can be used in the passing game. He is more of a threat to eat into Cook’s workload than anyone last year. We could see him take full drives away in an attempt to keep Cook fresh for later in the season. Davis could potentially carve out his own role, but he would be an immediate RB2 if Cook misses any time.
James Cook through Week 15 (the big Dallas game) was averaging 5.2 yards per carry
From Week 16 on including playoffs he averaged 3.5 YPC and did not run for 80 yards in any of the 5 games
I think Ray Davis was brought in to take work and prevent Cook from hitting a wall again
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 25, 2024
Fantasy Football Late Round Targets - Wide Receivers
Jermaine Burton fell in the NFL Draft due to non-football reasons, but he is a playmaker who can stretch the field and could be the Bengals' third receiver this year. We have seen a healthy Joe Burrow sustain three top-40 fantasy WRs, with all three topping 800 yards. With Burton being a big play threat, he may not need a ton of volume to reach those heights. Plus, Ja’Marr Chase missed five games in 2022 and Tee Higgins did the same last year. Burton is an injury away from becoming a top-30 WR with more upside.
Malachi Corley is another favorite of mine. The YAC King can take a pass at the line of scrimmage and turn it into a big gain. He is a beast with the ball in his hands. With Aaron Rodgers coming off the torn Achilles I believe the Jets will have a lot of quick, short throws in the playbook. Corley should have a lot of generated touches this season. A bold prediction of mine is he could outperform Mike Williams.
Malachi Corley amongst NFL Draft Eligible WRs
- 6th best yards per route ran from slot
- 9th most missed tackles forced. 4th most from slot
- 2nd most YAC. 2nd most from slot too
- 9th best PFF grade from slotHoping Jets put him in slot and let him run wild
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) July 25, 2024
Both of the Patriots' rookie receivers Javon Baker and Ja’Lynn Polk are worth taking late-round shots on. I prefer Baker as a talent, who even before the draft I thought could be this year's Tank Dell. A player that put up numbers in college, stood out at the Senior Bowl but would fall in the draft and then surprise as a rookie. He fell into a spot that has all the opportunities for him to do so. Although I prefer Baker, Polk does have draft capital on his side and is clearly ahead of Baker in the pecking order to start the season. It seems the rookies may have to wait until Drake Maye starts to get a full opportunity but there is upside here.
Devontez Walker is a burner. He ran a 4.36 40-yard dash and his tape backs up that he is extremely explosive downfield. After Zay Flowers, the Ravens are thin at receiver. It might take some time but if Walker gets an opportunity and plays well, he could carve out an every week role in this offense. He just seems like a receiver that Lamar Jackson will have fun throwing too. He could be his value brand, Marquise Brown.
Fantasy Football Late Round Targets - Tight Ends
Isaiah Likely balled out when Mark Andrews was injured last season. He averaged 12.1 fantasy PPG in those games, which would have made him the TE8. He averaged 2.53 fantasy points per target, the most among tight ends. We know the upside he possesses if Andrews misses more time. With the Ravens thin at receiver perhaps they use more two tight end sets, or they could use one of their tight ends in the slot. There are ways for them to get creative and get Likely on the field more often.
Jonnu Smith is coming off a career year. He posted his career bests in targets (70), catches (50), and yards (582). He was a big play merchant for the Falcons and that is exactly what he could be for Miami. I know Miami has never heavily featured tight ends under Mike McDaniel, but you know what he loves? Speed. And Smith has plenty of that. In fact, the two fastest speeds reached by a tight end last year were Smith. There is a chance he could be the third target in this high-powered Miami offense.
🐬Mike McDaniel has never had a TE as talented as Jonnu Smith.
📈His ability after the catch makes this connection a perfect match, with/ MIA ranked 3rd in YAC 2023.
📌Since 2017
◽ 65% of his rec yards are after the catch (1st | TE)
◽ 51 broken tackles ranks 4th among TE
◽…— LaQuan Jones (@RealDealFantasy) July 1, 2024
Mike Gesicki is coming off a down year but that just makes him a complete afterthought in fantasy drafts! Gesicki is not really a tight end. He specializes as a slot receiver. And with Tyler Boyd no longer playing in Cincinnati, there is an opening in the slot. The Bengals could opt to use Gesicki as a big slot.
While I do not think there will be a Sam LaPorta in this year's rookie class, there are a few worth taking a shot on (not including Brock Bowers as he goes way too early). Ja’Tavion Sanders is my favorite. He is a huge target that can win after the catch and should be an immediate force in the red zone. Theo Johnson could become the Giants starter with Darren Waller out. He could be a factor in the red zone. Erick All, coming from Tight End U, could steal work away from Gesicki and become fantasy-relevant.
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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