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We are just weeks away from the All-Star break and just over a month away from the trade deadline. This is typically the time of year when things start to get a little wild -- in the most fun way possible. The hot stove is usually burning as trade rumors get thrown around. No position is typically more impacted than relievers.
Every team that is a contender could use a boost to their bullpen. It is why every year without fail relievers are the most dealt position. Some closers will be dealt and open up a path for a new reliever to emerge as the closer for the second half of the season. It has a great impact on fantasy baseball and is the last opportunity to spend heavily and secure a closer for the stretch run. After that, you rely on injuries or poor performances opening an opportunity.
However, things are so jumbled this year that it is nearly impossible to get out in front right now. There are two teams out of the race in the NL and just a couple more than that in the AL. Even teams that are trending toward being sellers, such as the Astros and Rangers, are going to wait until the very last minute to decide. This year, I would expect trades to still happen as usual, but expect most of the activity to happen in late July.
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Changing Bullpens for Fantasy Baseball
The Mets bullpen had finally settled down. Edwin Diaz was back, getting all the save chances, and looked like his dominant self once again. Then on Sunday night, he was ejected for sticky stuff on his hands, and that comes with an automatic 10-game suspension. The good thing is we have seen the Mets operate without Diaz recently. In his absence, expect Reed Garrett and Jake Diekman to split save chances. I prefer Garrett of the two, but either is worth taking a shot on while Diaz is suspended. If you are in a deep league and neither is available but you need saves, you can take a shot on Drew Smith and Adam Ottavino, in that order.
Fantasy wise it's hard to identify any one guy right now to add with Diaz out. Will likely be full on committee again
— Scott Engel (@scotteTheKing) June 24, 2024
Pirates closer David Bednar was placed on the IL with an oblique injury. While they are saying the injury is minor, oblique is always tricky in baseball. Still, the hope is that Bednar returns when first eligible. In his absence, expect Aroldis Chapman to see the bulk of save opportunities. He picked up a save in the last week, his second of the season. Chapman may not be the elite option he once was, but he has a ton of closer experience and can still miss bats at a high rate. Plus, this is a way for him to increase his trade value if the Pirates decide to become sellers. He is the top add from this bullpen, but if you miss out, Colin Holderman is a deeper name you can take a shot on.
David Bednar is now on the IL. What will the #Pirates pitching staff look like while he's gone? This injury report brought to you by @98TwinsLaw
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WATCH: https://t.co/oVsylvSkDp > 93.7 The Fan pic.twitter.com/nPnrU1qXw7— 93.7 The Fan (@937theFan) June 24, 2024
Hector Neris has been largely reliable for the Cubs, but as discussed often in this article, the possibility of him getting blown up is always in play. And unfortunately, it has been coming to fruition. In June, he has an 8.22 ERA and a .432 wOBA against, with walks once again becoming an issue. In the last week for the Cubs, Colten Brewer and Keegan Thompson have converted the two saves. Brewer blew a save on Monday night. This is looking like a closer committee in the making and the Cubs are one of those teams that could go either way as buyers or sellers. Either way, it would likely be bad for Neris and Co. I would not give up on Neris yet, but understand he is losing value quickly at the moment. Thompson and Brewer are both worth taking as a speculative add-on if you are in need of saves.
"I wouldn't anticipate doing that."
Craig Counsell on removing Héctor Neris from the closer role. pic.twitter.com/ODyLQK5xS1
— Marquee Sports Network (@WatchMarquee) June 18, 2024
Yimi Garcia, who has long been a favorite of this article, was placed on the IL last week with elbow ulnar neuritis. He had been closing games for the Blue Jays, and while he is working his way back, they will need to find another option with him and Jordan Romano both currently sidelined. Toronto has not had a save in the last week. Still, we can use context clues. Earlier in the season, Chad Green and Nate Pearson were given save chances when Romano was sidelined. I would expect this duo to see the bulk of the opportunities moving forward. Green is my preferred option and I would be more aggressive in my FAAB bidding to land him, but both should be rostered at this point. I would anticipate this bullpen changing a lot in the second half of the season.
Speculative Saves for Fantasy Baseball
Last week, I advised the readers to add Alex Vesia of the Dodgers. On Monday, he picked up the save as Evan Phillips, the typical closer, was used to face the heart of the order in the eighth inning. Phillips gives you amazing ratios and strikeouts and has seen the bulk of the save chances that he has been active for, so do not freak out just yet. But it does seem clear that at times, they will not shy away from using him in non-save situations. Vesia, who is now second on the team in saves, provides even more elite ratios and the occasional save. He is someone worth rostering in roto formats.
Alex Vesia on his focus when he's on the mound: "One pitch at a time. One out at a time. One inning at a time. Just staying competitive day in and day out."
Catch all the action with #DodgersTV, on us!
🔗: https://t.co/i0HWddg9k0 pic.twitter.com/vgVMTQxqoJ— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) June 25, 2024
The Angels are one of three teams in the AL that look like clear-cut sellers at the deadline. Even worse than that is their bullpen is filled with veteran relievers on short-term deals. Those are the prime candidates to be traded. While Carlos Estevez is likely to be dealt, so are Matt Moore and Luis Garcia. This is one of those situations where the last man left standing with the team of that trio could be the closer. Or all three could be dealt. It is hard to get out in front of this situation, but just expect it to change and be ready to pounce on the waiver wire when it does. One thing you could do is attempt to sell Estevez now. People may expect him to be traded, but perhaps not. Or perhaps a team is desperate enough for saves that they will be willing to part with a piece for a month of save chances. It is at least worth shopping him.
#Angels Carlos Estévez has elite stretches every season it feels like. Right now he is on one of them.
He has thrown 8 straight scoreless outings since 5/28. Over those 8 appearances:
- 8K and no walks over 8IP
- 7 saves and 1 win
- 0.00 ERA/1.15 FIP/2,77 xFIP/1.91 SIERA
- 0.00… pic.twitter.com/0PKFJ8YYHn— Mike Kurland (@Mike_Kurland) June 25, 2024
Pete Fairbanks has the Rays gig pretty much on lockdown. In the last week, he has picked up two of their three saves, with Phil Maton getting the other. Fairbanks has received the bulk of opportunities he has been healthy for as well. But Tampa has hung around .500 all year and if it decides to sell, Fairbanks seems like one of its more in-demand pieces. If it went that route, that would leave save chances going to Jason Adam, Maton, and Colin Poche. I like those pitchers in that order. This is a scenario you could try to get out in front of by rostering Adam now if you have the bench space. The price to acquire him would shoot up if Fairbanks is traded.
The White Sox do not win many games and what's even more frustrating is when they do, they do not turn to just one closer. Michael Kopech is the one they turn to most often and he is the only pitcher I would classify as a must-roster in this bullpen. Still, they have three other pitchers with multiple saves, including John Brebbia, who picked up the lone Sox save in the past week. Kopech seems very likely to be dealt, which would leave Brebbia, Tanner Banks, and Jordan Leasure as the closer candidates. Brebbia is the top option, but a committee on a team that wins this little is best left for those desperate for saves.
Elite Strikeouts and Ratios for Fantasy Baseball
If you read this article often, you know I am a big fan of Hunter Harvey. On the year, he has a 3.49 ERA, 3.77 xERA, 1.22 WHIP, and a 27 percent strikeout rate to go with two wins. He has been the setup man for Kyle Finnegan. Now, the Nats find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card race, but this next month will determine a lot. If they fall out of the race, Finnegan could be a prime trade candidate. Harvey himself could be dealt, but if he stays, he would be the closer for the Nats for the final two months of the season. If you are looking to add a reliever who can help with ratios and strikeouts but also has a chance to get elevated to closer, Harvey is a bet worth taking.
These next two may take some galaxy-brain thinking, but stick with me. Jose Leclerc has been getting better results as of late, with a 2.79 ERA in the month of June. He has a 41 percent strikeout rate and 0.93 WHIP in the month as well. The Rangers currently sit under .500 and behind many teams in the Wild Card race. They may opt to still try to make a run and defend their title, but if they falter, veteran relievers like Kirby Yates and David Robertson would be valuable commodities on the trade block. If they opted to sell those two, they could also deal Leclerc, who is set to be a free agent at year's end. But the haul would be much less. They could opt to deal with the others and put Leclerc back in the closer gig for the final two months. Again, it takes a little galaxy brain, but if you see the vision, it is not a bad idea to take a flier on him if you need saves in a deep league.
Shelby Miller is a lot like Leclerc. He pitches on a team that is not quite out of the race but is quickly falling. Closer Jason Foley has years of team control left, but he is 28 years old, so it is not out of the question they could shop him. If they were to make a big splash, it is Miller that would likely close out games for the Tigers, as long as he is not traded. I like Leclerc more when going this route, but Miller is a deeper name to keep an eye on.
Devin Williams is a different type of inclusion in this article, as he is not an elite arm that does not get save chances. But I would be remiss if I did not include him. Williams is working his way back and is set to begin throwing bullpen sessions this week. The goal is for him to be back with the Brewers sometime in July. Now, it may take him a bit to regain his closer role, but Williams has been elite in the past. He picked up 36 saves last year with a 1.53 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 38 percent strikeout rate (which is kind of low for his standards). You will not find an elite closer like this on the waiver wire again, and he remains available in over a third of leagues. Check your waiver wire or even try to trade for him now if someone is stashing him. The price is only going to go up each day and week as he nears a return.
The Milwaukee Brewers should soon get pitching help with the return of Devin Williams. Manager Pat Murphy said he'll throw in the bullpen Wednesday. https://t.co/GcT5KmrzYF
— Journal Sentinel (@journalsentinel) June 24, 2024
Make sure to follow Michael on X, @MichaelFFlorio.
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