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Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions
Between Sunday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's hour-long podcast with Byron (currently posted on our Twitter page), we've given y'all every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible in the opening week of the 2024 PGA Season. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Sentry outright betting card.
The six names on this betting card are aimed at returning ~6.5 times our investment in a given week. Because of the inflated odds associated with this market, it is even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of bad decisions.
In the two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 21 outright winners (a 22.3% hit rate), for a profit of over $16,000 (betting roughly $350 per week), and an aggregate ROI of 48.3%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament, but if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, the outright golf betting market has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable), betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Sentry Tournament of Champions!
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The Sentry Betting Card
Xander Schauffele (+1650)
GolfChannel: Xander Schauffele set a then-course record 62 on Sunday at the 2019 @Sentry_TOC for his fourth career @PGATOUR victory. 🏆
The best in golf return to Kapalua January 5-8.
(via @PGATOUR) pic.twitter.com/L6F6BkrQO0 #GolfChannel #GrowTheGame
— MySport101 (@MySport101) December 21, 2022
We're not always going to end up with the prices we want on all three of our pre-week leans, but at least to start the year, oddsmakers have offered us a gentle handshake on each of our Sunday Shortlist candidates. When isolating for putting and iron play, it's difficult to find a player more in-form than the 30-year-old Californian, as Schauffele rates out 2nd in the field on Approach and 6th in Putting over his last 50 rounds.
With finishes of 1st, 2nd, 5th, and 12th over his last four starts at Kapalua, nobody in this field has been a more constant threat at this venue since 2019, so it's curious that we're getting a bit of a discount on Xander when compared to the rest of his tier (Morikawa, Homa, Aberg, etc.). I'll gladly buy the dip on a player coming off the best statistical season of his career (+1.87 SG: Total/Round). This feels like as good a spot as any for Schauffele to finally pay off his stellar recent play with a trip to victory lane.
Tom Kim (+3750)
Tom Kim's ball striking is PURE 😮💨#CazooOpenDeFrance pic.twitter.com/C3ixQI1huN
— DP World Tour (@DPWorldTour) September 22, 2023
I mentioned in my Sunday preview piece that I'd be comfortable betting Tom Kim at any price over 25-1, so the 37.5 opener on BookMaker this week was a particularly appealing sight to open my 2024 portfolio. In full disclosure, the best number on market is sitting a few points lower than the price posted above, but even at the 30-1 currently on BookMaker, I'm perfectly comfortable going to war with perhaps the most metronomic entity in the sport.
Kim has finished inside the top 25 on ten consecutive occasions dating back to July 2023. He's gained strokes putting in all ten of those events (averaging a whopping 0.9 SG/Round in the process), and captured his third PGA Tour title last fall in Vegas on the back of the second-best iron week of his entire career (+7.4 Strokes Gained).
Now the 21-year-old sensation returns to a venue where he finished T5 in his first appearance last year (at a course that is notoriously tough on debutants), and has continually proven he's gaining comfort playing on the game's biggest stages (T8 at the U.S. Open, T2 at The Open, T10 at the BMW Championship, etc). As enamored as we are with the 2024 prospects of Ludvig Aberg, at an event like this, there is no reason to be pricing fellow wunderkind Tom Kim at 2.5-3x the outright number.
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Tony Finau (+3850)
That time Tony Finau hit a 407-yard drive with 198mph ball speed. 😳
(📹: @tonyfinaugolf) pic.twitter.com/kx2gTiQn1I
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) June 28, 2023
After a three-month post-Mexico hangover that saw his statistical baselines dip dramatically, it seems as if Tony Finau is well on his way back to being one of the best ball-strikers on the planet. Since the Open Championship last July, Finau has gained strokes in each ball-striking category over five straight starts, including the fourth and fifth-best approach weeks of his year at the TOUR Championship and Hero World Challenge.
Tony was very vocal in Albany about his struggles with injury over the last two years (particularly with the knee), but a healthy, renewed Finau is now looking to regain his status as one of the game's preeminent power players. He was routinely reaching ball speeds in the mid/high 180s at times last time out at Hero, and the forgiving confines of Kapalua make the perfect venue to test his end ranges even further. If Finau can truly return to the elite driving levels we saw in his early years on Tour, the elite ceiling we've all projected for the Utah native could finally be fulfilled at age 34.
Eric Cole (+7050)
Eric Cole nearly aces the 17th, making birdie to go 18-under atop the @ShrinersOpen leaderboard. 👏
📺: @peacock & @NBCSports app | via @PGATOURpic.twitter.com/AP2LNlDuet
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) October 15, 2023
He's become known as a bit of a heartbreaker for outright bettors in his short PGA Tour stint, but at 70-1, there's no way I can stay away from Eric Cole at Kapalua. When you couple a golf course that necessitates prolific birdie making, wedge play, and putting acumen with some of the widest fairways on the entire PGA schedule, the compatibility of Eric Cole's skillset with the Plantation Course becomes one of the most obvious in the field.
Simply put, particularly in this section of the odds board, you won't find a better combination of iron play and putting. Cole ranks sixth in SG: Approach, third in Birdie Chances Created, seventh in Weighted Proximity, and second in Birdie Conversion Rate. With the notorious struggles he's had off the tee, Cole's path to victory may seem a bit unorthodox compared to some of the modern power players we've seen triumph here in years past (Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Xander Schauffele, etc.), but keep in mind that we've also seen the likes of Harris English, Cameron Smith, Patrick Reed, and Zach Johnson make their way into the winner's circle around Kapalua over the last ten years.
I think there's a much more open path to a longshot victory than you'd initially expect out of a tournament featuring 21 of the top 25 golfers in the world, and among these lesser-known names down the board, Cole certainly possesses some of the most elite toolkits.
Sepp Straka (+8050)
Sepp Straka to solo 2nd and 17-under with a nice birdie putt from distance on the 17th. 🐤
📺: NBC & @peacock | #HeroWorldChallenge pic.twitter.com/mJYu3gw4M3
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 3, 2023
After the year Sepp Straka put together in 2023, I figured it would be some time before we had the opportunity to bet the UGA alum at a reasonable price. Instead, it took just one week for my numbers to show significant value on the Austrian International. There's clearly a sizable difference of opinion between myself and the bookmakers here, and given the fact that Sepp comes into the week on the back of two Top 25 finishes in DP World Tour Rolex Series Events and a second-place finish at the star-studded Hero World Challenge, I can't make a legitimate argument not to take a shot at another chance at 80-1.
Straka's struggles in a middling finish here last year could well be painted as a red flag in the overall ledger, however, when you put his performance in context, it becomes one of the more impressive 21st-place finishes of the season. Somehow, at a venue that routinely ranks as one of the easier driving courses on the PGA Tour, Straka put together the worst off-the-tee week of his entire career. Sepp lost a whopping 5.9 strokes with his driver over four days at Kapalua - racking up three penalty strokes over his first 31 holes and hitting just 66% of the nearly 50-yard wide fairways for the week.
Things have gotten a lot better for Sepp since that debacle, as he now comes into 2024 having gained strokes driving in 14 of his last 16 worldwide starts, and when you isolate for putting and iron play in last year's Sentry, Straka's mark of +6.9 ranked third in the field behind Tom Hoge and Collin Morikawa. The 30-year-old Austrian has continually shown a proclivity for popping up at some of the game's marquee venues: notching runner-up finishes at Royal Liverpool, TPC Southwind, and Albany, plus seventh-place finishes at the East Lake and Oak Hill all within the last 18 months. I think there's far more upside in Straka than the opening prices of 2024 would indicate.
Sahith Theegala (+8250)
Sahith Theegala has birdied five of his last six holes at the @FortinetChamp! 🔥
📺: Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/m5ZsFsIsl7
— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 15, 2023
Another player coming off of a landmark moment last fall, Theegala enters the 2024 season hungry to build on his first PGA Tour victory. Given how many big moments Theegala has found himself at the center of in his career, it's easy to forget the fact that he's only played 76 professional events in his career, but in that short time on the big stage, Theegala has proven that his best is more than capable of mixing it up with the best in the game. He's already registered six top-ten finishes in elevated fields, including a ninth-place finish at last year's Masters, a fifth at the RBC Heritage, and a sixth at the Genesis Invitational.
His ceiling is once again being disrespected this week at 80-1, especially so when you consider the fact that his greatest historic weakness (driving accuracy), will be largely mitigated by Kapalua's generosity off the tee. Once he hits the fairway, however, Theegala is more than capable of holding his own in any field, as he ranks 2nd in SG: Putting, 8th in Birdie Conversion Rate, and 10th in Birdie or Better Percentage. Until he straightens out the driver, I have questions about his week-to-week consistency, but around a venue like Kapalua, Sahith is more than capable of showcasing that elite upside.
Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!
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