Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2023 PGA Championship

Following Jason Day's emotional win on Mother's Day at the Byron Nelson, 155 of his contemporaries will be looking for their very own storybook ending this week in Rochester.

Between Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler's battle at the top of the world rankings, Jordan Spieth embarking on the final leg of his career grand slam quest, and LIV Golf looking to build on a stellar performance at last month's Masters, there will be no shortage of storylines in play at the year's second major championship.

But before we give our predictions for who will lift the Wanamaker at week's end, we need to access the venue that these players will need to conquer. Here's all you need to know about Oak Hill Country Club and the 2023 PGA Championship.

The Golf Course

The historic Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York has already been the site of 3 U.S. Opens, 3 PGA Championships, 2 U.S. Amateurs, 2 Senior PGA Championships, and the 1995 Ryder Cup. However, 2023’s iteration of the PGA Championship features the debut of a new era at Oak Hill, headlined by Andrew Greene’s complete remodel that took place in 2019.

Greene most notably cleared hundreds of trees that had cluttered the property and taken away from Ross’s strategic vision back in 1921, and both the bunkering and iconic green complexes have also been restored using sketches from Ross's own hand over 100 years ago. Smarter men than me can dig deeper into the minutiae of Greene's work, but the long and short of it is this:

Oak Hill is far from the claustrophobic, tree-lined venue that saw precision players like Jason Dufner, Jim Furyk, and Henrik Stenson fighting for the Wanamaker ten years ago. Instead, many players have likened Oak Hill version 2.0 to a Winged Foot or Bethpage Black. Both are long, driver-heavy golf courses in the northeast with thick, uniform rough, and elevated greens that tend to slope back to front.

I’d also throw in Aronimink (host of the 2018 BMW as well as the 2010 and 2011 AT&T National), and Plainfield (host of the 2011 and 2015 Barclays), as other corollary courses to reference for this week. Both are Ross designs in the northeast we’ve seen recently with similar agronomy.

Another key storyline heading into the week revolves around the weather. With the PGA Championship’s move to May in 2019, venues like Oak Hill in the northeast suddenly come under threat of being stripped of the opportunity to host this Championship. 

Morning waves will be going out in 40-50 degree temperatures all week, and given that winter only ended ~2 months ago in Upstate New York, we cannot expect the course to have had the same ability to firm up as we saw at Southern Hills last year. 

As a result, carry distance will be a very important marker this week, as softer fairways will mitigate much of the rollout we see on tee shots, and players who traditionally rely on the added distance that firm fairways provide will have that strategy largely nullified around Oak Hill.

Another point in favor of the bombers this week is in the fairway bunkering at Oak Hill. For one of the first times all year, fairway bunkers will act as true hazards for those that find them, and any tee shots lodged anywhere near their steep faces will be forced to pitch out sideways. 

For the longer hitters in the field, Oak Hill's bunkers situated at 280-295 yards from the tee box will be of no concern, and the recent clearing of much of the overgrowth will mean that wayward misses will not be nearly as penalized as they once were. I'd be very surprised if carry distance wasn't one of the most correlative stats to success by week's end.

Moving onto iron play, and given the cold temperatures and soft conditions, 7 Par 4’s >460, 2 Par 5’s >600, and 2 Par 3’s >230, it’s no surprise that players will be forced to lean on their long irons around Oak Hill. Oak Hill’s greens are the 4th smallest on the schedule this year, so precision from 200 yards and beyond will be crucial if you want to avoid some of the more treacherous parts of the course: specifically the greenside rough and bunkering.

If reports from the grounds are accurate, these are some of the most unforgiving greenside complexes we’ll be seeing all year. Dense rough or deep bunkers are basically your only two options if you miss these greens, and short-sided misses will result in almost guaranteed bogeys. As a result, I'll be weighing around the green metrics very heavily in my modeling. Sand Saves, SG: ARG and Bogey Avoidance are my three key metrics.

And finally, the putting surfaces at Oak Hill are made up of pure bentgrass for only the 3rd time in 2023 (after Augusta National and Craig Ranch). Bent tends to produce a bit less variance when compared to a bumpy poa annua or a grainy Bermuda, but I will certainly be favoring guys with documented success putting in the Northeast. Many of these New York/New England courses feature very similar agronomy (Muirfield Village, Winged Foot, Bethpage Black, Caves Valley, Wilmington, etc).

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be important to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside the holes he still has left to play. To be honest, though, Oak Hill doesn't have present many opportunities where players can escape the grind against par.

Only three holes on the property played below par in 2013, with the cumulative scoring average sitting just a tick above (+3). That was obviously before Andrew Greene's restoration, which brought with it the lengthening of eight different holes, including the two easiest holes on the golf course: the Par 5 4th and the Par 5 13th.

Each of those holes now measures over 615 yards, and will play as a three-shot hole for many in the field. Given that the birdie or better percentage on these holes only sat at 27 and 22% respectively ten years ago, that number only promises to go down with the added length in this year's edition.

Because there is a distinct lack of scoring stretches on the golf course, let's instead look at sections to be weary of when assessing a player's viability in the live market. In my numbers, two such examples jump out: first is a six-hole stretch from 6-11, and second is the four-hole finishing stretch from 14-18.

Holes 6-11 feature a run of Par 4's measuring 503, 461, and 482 yards (6, 7, and 9), as well as a ridiculous 245-yard Par 3 (11th). In 2013, this stretch accounted for nearly half of the dropped shots on the property, and even the "breather holes" at 8 and 10 featured bogey or worse rates of 20 and 24%.

Notably, the new sixth hole (changed from a 428-yard Par 4), has been lengthened by 75 yards and features an approach shot framed short and left by Allen Creek. Its scoring average of 4.27 in 2013 will assuredly jump up by at least another quarter of a shot given the added length and damp conditions.

Lastly, the four-hole finishing stretch starting on 15 will be pulling no punches either. The 155-yard Par 3 to start has been shortened by 25 yards for this week's tournament (the only hole on the course to have its yardage reduced), but in 2013, the shortest hole on the property actually played as the most difficult of all the Par 3's - logging a scoring average of 3.28, and dishing out bogeys or worse at a nearly 31% clip.

The final two holes at Oak Hill are more traditionally difficult Major Championship tests. Two par 4's that measure 502 and 497 on the scorecard, they played as the first and third toughest holes here in 2013. With a scoring average of 4.48 and 4.40, you'd better be sure that whoever you've got your eye on in the live market has already gotten these two holes in his back pocket.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Rory McIlroy (16-1)

Perhaps the most polarizing name on the odds board this week, Rory’s run of three missed cuts through three of the biggest events of the season to date (PLAYERS, Masters, Wells Fargo), has caused some to sound the alarm bells on McIlroy’s chances at Oak Hill.

I am not one of those people. Particularly when the opportunity emerges to get a player of his caliber at double the number of Rahm or Scheffler. Let’s dispel the lead-in form narrative first: as over the last five years, four of Rory’s nine wins have come directly on the back of a disappointing run of results.

• 2018 win at the Arnold Palmer Invitational: had missed the cut in two of his four previous starts, no finish better than 20th in over six months
• 2019 win at the Canadian Open: one week after a missed cut at Muirfield Village where he had his worst off-the-tee outing of the season (he won by seven).
• 2021 win at the Wells Fargo Championship: on the back of two ugly missed cuts at Sawgrass and Augusta (lost over 11 strokes to the field between those two starts)
• 2021 win at the CJ Cup: first start of the 2022 campaign following a lackluster run through the FedEx Cup Playoffs, culminating in a 14th place finish at Eastlake. Rory had also lost strokes on approach in each of the three playoff legs

Notably, two of those wins had come on golf courses he’d found previous success on. We all know about Rory’s storied past at Quail Hollow, but his 2018 win at Bay Hill came one year after putting together one of the best ball-striking weeks of his career at the 2017 API. 

Oak Hill isn’t a golf course we get to see much on the Tour level, but Rory might be as comfortable on these grounds as anyone in the field: not just as an honorary member with Rochester roots, but also given his T8 finish back in the 2013 PGA Championship (beating the field average by over 10 shots in the process).

Moving away from narratives and back into the numbers, there isn’t a metric I’m weighing in which Rory McIlroy doesn’t excel. Rory possesses the longest carry distance in the field, he’s fifth in weighted proximity to the hole, 10th in bentgrass putting since 2020, and 14th in my aggregated short-game model.

He’s consistently dominated similar, driver-heavy venues in the past, gaining four shots off-the-tee at Bethpage in 2019, +5.8 at Winged Foot (2020 U.S. Open), +5.2 at Aronimink (2018 BMW), +3.3 at Torrey Pines (2021 U.S. Open), +5.6 last year at Southern Hills and +3.6 at Brookline - placing no worse than T8 on any occasion.

This golf course in its current condition is tailor-made for McIlroy, he’s under much less pressure than he faced at either Augusta National or St. Andrew’s, and we’re getting the best outright number we’ve seen on Rory in over 18 months. Don’t be surprised if he begins to look like the best player on the planet for the second time this season.

Patrick Cantlay (25-1)

By my count, this is the third Major in 18 months I’ve tried to call for Patrick Cantlay, but I don’t think I’ve ever been as confident as I am this week. Pat has taken a massive leap forward with his driving in 2023, rating out as the 2nd best Total Driver of the ball on the PGA Tour this season. 

Only Cantlay, Scheffler, and Keith Mitchell can say that they rank inside the Top 30 in both driving distance and driving accuracy, and over his last 5 starts, Cantlay has AVERAGED +4.8 SG: Off-the-tee. A run that only a select few of the world’s best drivers would be even capable of. 

Moving onto the iron play, where Cantlay has once again surpassed his already lofty baselines. Patrick has gained over a stroke per round on Approach in 6 of his last 7 starts, and over his last 50 rounds, he’s also one of the better long iron players in the field (6th in Proximity >200 yards). 

Finally, if you’ve followed Cantlay’s career at any level to this point, you’ll know how much he thrives in the Northeast, particularly on Bentgrass greens. A two-time winner at Muirfield Village, back-to-back champion of the BMW at Caves Valley and Wilmington, T14 at last year's U.S. Open at Brookline (gaining over 4 strokes putting), and T3 at the 2019 PGA Championship at Bethpage Black (gaining nearly 11 strokes ball-striking).

I know the narratives about Cantlay in Majors are what they are, but over his last 3 Major Championship starts: Cantlay has placed T14, T8, and T14. Pat’s playing the best golf he’s ever played on a week-in, week-out basis, and now we come to a course that should set up perfectly for him.

Having Joe LaCava on the bag won’t hurt his chances either (veteran caddie who has won Majors with both Tiger Woods and Fred Couples over his 30+ year career). Looking back through time, we’re 0/3 on our Cantlay Major predictions on FHP, but 25-1 is a price I’m more than happy to run it back with. He’s my favorite play outside of the top three.

Tony Finau (25-1)

We just went on and on about Cantlay’s 2023 progression, but Tony Finau might be one of the only guys on Tour to grow his stock more than the Long Beach native this year. From a tee-to-green perspective, only Scottie Scheffler has outpaced Tony Finau in 2023, and nobody has been able to keep pace with Finau’s torrid iron play.

Finau has gained a whopping 45.1 shots on approach in 48 recorded rounds so far this year, five shots better than his closest competitor. He also rates out 1st in GIR % from 200+ yards and 5th in Total Birdie Chances Created.

Couple this ball-striking breakout with his always reliable off-the-tee prowess (7th in my Total Driving model), and a vastly improved short game (19th in Sand Saves; 8th in Bogey Avoidance), and Finau’s game looks more than primed to contend for his first ever Major Title. 

The problem for Tony in 2023 has clearly been the putter, but on bentgrass greens since 2020, Finau’s gained nearly half a stroke per round. Three of his last five wins have come on this surface, and he finished third (behind just DeChambeau and Wolff) from tee-to-green at Winged Foot’s 2020 U.S. Open. 

It’s been a revolving door for spots 3-7 in the OWGR hierarchy to start the year, but statistically, Tony Finau is right there alongside the names we tout as favorites every single week. A win at Oak Hill would finally cement his place as one of the true elites in this game.

Max Homa (45-1)

Coming off of an 8th-place finish at Quail Hollow where Max had his best driving week in two months, I didn’t expect books to cut us this much of a break on the 6th-ranked golfer on the planet. 

Now admittedly, Homa’s Major Championship track record isn’t nearly as prodigious as his contemporaries at the top of the World Rankings, but Max has continually proven himself on Championship Calibre golf courses on the Tour level: (Winner at Torrey, Riviera, and Quail Hollow, and back–to–back top-six finishes at Muirfield Village).

Homa has also won at TPC Potomac, another northeastern bentgrass course played last year in cold, soggy conditions; probably our biggest recent corollary to the weather we’ll be seeing in Rochester this week.

Statistically, Max remains an elite long-iron player ( with a really underrated short game, two of the most important skills we talk about every year at events like this. It’s only a matter of time before Max breaks out on the biggest of stages. I’m willing to buy the dip >40-1 here. 

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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