Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - John Deere Classic

Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2023 John Deere Classic from TPC Deer Run

After Rickie Fowler’s long-awaited triumph in Detroit, the PGA Tour shifts its focus away from the established stars of the game, and more on the “middle class” of professional golf. The John Deere Classic has long been a premier breakout spot for some of golf’s brightest up-and-comers, but for some of our most captivating starlets: Ludvig Aberg, Cameron Young, Gordon Sargent, etc., their task is far from straightforward. 

To capture that elusive first professional win, they will have to conquer a course that speaks to the older souls of the game. As past champions like Steve Stricker, Zach Johnson, and Brian Harman will tell you, TPC Deer Run isn’t a setup that can be conquered through brute strength. Instead, the winner this week will have to prove themselves superior in golf’s more mundane aspects. 

Apart from these toolsy wunderkinds, there is a batch of wily veterans that will be looking for life-changing breakthroughs of their own around TPC Deer Run. Denny McCarthy, Adam Hadwin, Adam Schenk, Eric Cole, and many others are looking to parlay their strong recent form into a victory they’ve chased for five-plus years as a professional. The competition will be fierce, and although Sunday’s victor isn’t likely to come with the same fanfare as we saw last Sunday in Detroit, you can bet that anyone lucky enough to lift the John Deere’s iconic trophy will feel a similar sense of triumph as Rickie did under rapturous applause at the Rocket Mortgage.

The Golf Course

TPC Deer Run - 7,289-yard, Par 71

For the third consecutive week on the PGA Tour, players will face a breakneck sprint to 20-under and beyond. TPC Deer Run has never ranked outside the top 10 in easiest scoring averages on Tour, despite some less than stellar fields in recent years. 

A primary reason behind these splits comes from the forgiveness players are allowed off the tee. At an average fairway width of 39 yards, TPC Deer Run features the 7th widest landing areas on the PGA Tour, and a historical driving accuracy percentage nearly ten percentage points higher than your average venue (71.2 vs 61.6%). 

With fairways as wide as Vidanta Vallarta (and its Par 4s/5s measuring 40 yards shorter on average), TPC Deer Run is about as nonstrenuous of a driving test we’ll see all year. Normally, landing areas as forgiving as this would point you in the direction of players looking to employ a bomb and gouge strategy (a la Vidanta, Detroit, Craig Ranch, etc). 

However, there is one key difference between these bomber-favored venues and TPC Deer Run: the penalty in play for off-line tee shots. Deer Run features the fifth-highest rough penalty on the PGA Tour schedule, as players who do miss in the 4” thick Kentucky Bluegrass will see their expected scores jump nearly a half a shot above players who keep the ball in the short grass. 

This stark dichotomy between drives in the fairway and those that are wayward has turned the screws on many of the Tour’s premier power players attempting to carpet bomb the midwestern countryside. Instead, players like Ryan Moore, Lucas Glover, Zach Johnson, and Steve Stricker have found the most consistent route to success around Deer Run: precision over power off the tee. Your scoring clubs will still have plenty of time to make up the difference in firepower out of the blocks. 

Speaking of scoring clubs, wedge play has proven to be the clearest throughline to success around TPC Deer Run through the years. Nearly two-thirds of historical approach shots have come from inside 175 yards, and one look at the list of past champions through the years should give a clear indication of the importance of a strong wedge game.

Steve Stricker completed the JDC three-peat from 2009-2011 and led the PGA Tour in proximity from inside 125 yards on five separate occasions. Zach Johnson won two Major Championships on the back of his elite driving accuracy and acumen from inside 150 yards, and Jordan Spieth, while not as reliable as Stricker or ZJ with the driver, remains unquestionably one of the best wedge players of his generation. 

Another throughline you’ll notice between these three iconic champions is the ability to get white-hot with the flat stick. Top five finishers on average here have gained over a stroke per round on the greens, and 4 of the last 5 winners at Deer Run have gained at least 8 shots with their chipping and putting. 

The greens this week are pure bentgrass, and routinely rank as some of the easiest surfaces to putt on all year. There isn’t a severe amount of undulation around Deer Run, and the pure bentgrass will put no trepidation in players' minds as we’ve seen on the poa annua of River Highlands and Detroit GC.

I do believe the ease of these complexes has the chance to level the playing field between the top and bottom ranks of putters on Tour, and we have seen some poor putters find success on these greens in the past (Lucas Glover, Emiliano Grillo, Jhonattan Vegas to names a few), but I would still prefer to see at least a hint of positive trends on the greens as the Tour has made the switch to bentgrass over the last few months. 

Putting is my second most heavily weighed stat of the week - although it’s still some distance behind approach play. Whether it’s past success on these particular complexes or a steady drumbeat of positive putting performances in the recent Midwestern/Northeastern swing, I’d like something to take solace in when attempting to project a player’s putting performance this week. 

Scouting the Routing

For those looking to dabble in the live market this week, it will be imperative to contextualize a player’s position on the leaderboard alongside where he is on the golf course and which holes he still has left to play. 

Similarly to the other two bentgrass birdie fests we’ve seen in recent weeks, TPC Deer Run is sorely lacking in quantifiable hurdles it can place in front of the best players on the planet. Only four holes on the property have historically played over a tenth of a shot over par, and only the 9th and 18th are holes I would categorize as “Bogey Avoidance Opportunities,” where par would cut the average field by two-tenths of a shot.

With 9 and 18 being the biggest obstacles that players will face over the course of their rounds, there isn’t a distinct edge to be found on players starting on a particular side in Rounds 1 and 2. The back-nine does feature a few more clear-cut birdie opportunities (10, 14, 16, 17), but also comes with four of the six hardest holes on the golf course (11, 12, 15, 18). 

The front nine should allow players an easy entry point, as the first and second holes have played nearly a stroke under par by themselves. But from holes 3-8, players will face six holes that all play within a tenth of a stroke of par. By scoring average, the back-nine has played around two-tenths of a shot easier historically, but this is nowhere near a large enough discrepancy to tailor a strategy one way or another.

This, along with the lack of viable depth in the field, is one of the primary reasons I’ve decided to deploy my entire outright budget early in the week. There is always a chance that books can fall asleep on a player in the live market, but the routing of the golf course doesn’t project to provide the best environment to catch undervalued commodities. Birdies will be coming in thick and fast around this course, and slow starters could find themselves with a mountain to climb if they can’t turn their fortunes in quick order.

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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod

2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 Units

Total Winnings: +311.229 Units

Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36

H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022

The Betting Card

Adam Hadwin (30-1)

Although he came up one shot short to Rickie Fowler in last week’s Rocket Mortgage Playoff, Hadwin took a lot of solace in the two “perfect” shots he hit on 18 in sudden death (his words). His best drive of the day and a pin-seeking nine-iron that pitched right next to the flag (before spinning back to 20 feet), were indicative of just how dialed in the Canadian felt last weekend, and of the two players in the final group, it was Hadwin that looked the more likely to close the deal in regulation.

In the end, Rickie’s playoff magic from the right rough closed the book on the Saskatchewnian’s chances, but another golden opportunity comes this week for Hadwin to capture his first title in over six years. 

When you break TPC Deer Run down to its roots, wedge play, driving accuracy, and putting emerge as the three main keystones to success. Over the last two months, only Adam Hadwin ranks inside the top 25 in SG: APP, Opportunities Gained, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting, and Driving Accuracy. He also rates out as a top 15 wedge player in this field over his last 50 rounds and has scored top finishes at many other of these short, wedge-intensive birdie parties:

• 2nd and 4th in four starts at Detroit GC
• 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 6th in seven starts at the American Express (PGA West)
• 4th and 6th at the 3M Open
• 12th at Oakdale for the Canadian Open last month
• 2nd and 7th in seven starts at Silverado
• 8th and 18th in three starts here at TPC Deer Run

Adam Schenk (33-1)

Following the trend of positive history at Deer Run with a recent pop-up performance at a comp. course, Schenk gained an impressive 7.2 strokes ball-striking and 3.5 shots with the putter in a seventh-place finish at Detroit last week. He’s now gained strokes on Approach in seven consecutive starts and has just so happened to have had the best tee-to-green week and the second-best putting week of his entire career right here at Deer Run (+10.1 T2G in 2019, finished 6th; +7.8 Putting in 2021, finished 4th).

With two runner-up finishes already in 2023, and coming off of his best ball-striking week of the season in Detroit,” Schenk seems as due for a win of anyone in golf’s “middle-class.” I couldn’t leave him off of this card in a spot like this.

Emiliano Grillo (35-1)

We’re going back to the well with the Argentinian, as Grillo continues to present one of the safest combinations of iron play and putting we have in this field. Over his last 8 starts, Emi has gained an average of 3.4 shots on Approach and only lost strokes putting on two occasions.

I always love Grillo on shorter courses where precision is at a premium, and a runner-up finish here last year in which he gained 7.4 shots ball-striking and 4.1 on the greens further emphasizes his fit around Deer Run. My model projects him as the best player in this field over the last 3 months, and for one of the few players teeing it up this week with recent proof of winning pedigree, 35/1 is a tough number to pass on.

Chris Kirk (35-1)

As a late addition to my card at 60-1 Thursday morning, I ended up watching a ton of Chris Kirk’s shots last week in Detroit. I can report he’s absolutely striping it. Kirk did not miss a single fairway in Sunday’s final round - finishing 10th in Driving Accuracy for the week. He was 5th in last week’s field in Birdie Chances Created, 5th in SG: T2G, and if it weren’t for two bad days on the greens (Friday and Sunday), he’d had had a legitimate chance at contending.

TPC Deer Run is a perfect venue for the UGA alum to keep that momentum going though, as Kirk has put together a staggering ball-striking resume around these friendly confines. In six starts since 2011, Kirk has never gained less than 2 strokes on approach in any JDC iteration and had the 8th best iron week of his career (311 starts), the last time he stepped foot on property (2018).

This track record makes a ton of sense when you consider that Kirk has ranked 7th and 9th on Tour in Proximity from <125 yards in each of the last two seasons and currently ranks 3rd behind Keegan Bradley and Tom Kim from 125-150. He’s as good of a wedge player as can be found in world golf right now, and should he keep driving the ball as well as he did on Sunday in Detroit, there isn’t another stop on Tour where he’ll get more opportunities from these golden yardages. 

Lucas Glover (70-1)

The 2021 Champion of the John Deere Classic is back to his sweet-swinging ways. Over his last 24 rounds, Glover rates out 2nd in Birdie Chances Created, 3rd in Frwys Gained, 8th in SG: APP, and 10th in Weighted Proximity. Although he has a win to his credit around Deer Run, it is his overall resume around this property that really draws my attention. Four of Glover’s best 23 tee-to-green weeks of his career have come right here in Silvis - keeping in mind that this is a career that spans over 19 years and nearly 500 starts. 

I could talk all day about Glovers’ ball-striking acumen, but the big news from the former Clemson Tiger has come on the greens in recent weeks. He put a broomstick-style putter in the bag last month and seems to finally getting a bit more comfortable on the greens. He’s gained strokes putting in 5 of his last 6 competitive rounds and just had the best putting week in over 2 ½ years in Detroit. He’s actually been an above-average putter over his last four starts here in Silvis (+2.3 SG in 14 rounds), and as evidenced by his 2021 triumph, Lucas doesn’t need an all-world type of putting week to find his way into contention. He’s striking the ball at an elite level in a field like this - if there’s any life left in the flat stick from Detroit, he’s very live to contend once again

Chez Reavie (70-1)

Chez continues to show out every time he tees it up, and books continue to treat him as an afterthought. He finally lost strokes putting at the Rocket Mortgage after gaining in ten consecutive events, but made up for it by putting together the second-best approach week of his entire career (+8.7). Combining APP/Putting over the last three months, only Grillo rates out better than Chez, and Reavie has been a net positive putter at Deer Run over his career (gaining strokes in 6/10 starts). I’m going to keep riding until he gives me a reason not to - especially in a field as devoid of top talent as this. Maybe the best value play on the board.

Callum Tarren (90-1)

After flashing some provocative ball-striking splits at River Highlands, Callum Tarren was another name I was keeping a close eye on in the live market last week. He did not disappoint. On the week, Tarren gained more strokes on Approach than Collin Morikawa, drove the ball better than Ludvig Aberg, and lapped the entire field from tee to green. Tarren’s +12.5 Strokes Gained from tee-to-green were the best of his career by 4.5 shots, and now we return to the venue where most golf fans were introduced to Callum in the second-to-last group in 2022’s Final Round.

With a sixth-place finish last year at the John Deere Classic, as well as a 7th place at the 3M Open and two phenomenal ball-striking displays this year at River Highlands and Detroit GC, it seems as though the Englishman has developed a certain comfort for these bentgrass birdie parties. The putter will have to heat up if he wants to improve on last year's result, but I take solace in the fact that Tarren recorded the second-best putting week of his short career here in his first start. 90-1 is just too enticing for a player swinging the club this well.

Best of luck guys, and Happy Hunting!

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