Flag Hunting: PGA Betting Picks - 2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions

Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller) and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stats, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at Kapalua's Plantation Course. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2025 Sentry outright betting card.

The six names on this betting card are aimed at returning about six times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.

In the over three-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 26 outright winners (a 19.2% hit rate) for a profit of over $14,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 29.8%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2025 Sentry Tournament of Champions!

Sentry Tournament of Champions Betting Card

Collin Morikawa (14-1)

Collin Morikawa is bringing the fire early! 🔥

He converts the LONG birdie as play resumes at Royal Montreal.

📺 Golf Channel & NBC Sports App | #PresidentsCup pic.twitter.com/VE5JGcq21S

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) September 28, 2024

He may not have fully capitalized on a stellar 2024 season with a trip to victory lane, but in a field devoid of World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, at a venue he's dominated like few else in this field, Collin Morikawa's debut appearance in 2025 has all the makings of a drought-breaking week.

In five starts at the Plantation Course, Morikawa has accrued finishes of seventh, seventh, fifth, second, and fifth, leading this field in SG: Total over his last 20 rounds and ranking inside the top three in each ball-striking category.

Collin also boasts a vastly improved short game from the player we knew 12 months ago: gaining 86 spots in the PGA Tour's year-long Strokes Gained rankings around the greens and 41 spots with his putter.

If these developments translate into the New Year, Morikawa will be a hard man to beat around Kapalua -- as the 28-year-old La Canada native has gained an average of 5.84 strokes to the field with his ball-striking over the course of his five-start career on Maui (even losing strokes with his short game in three of his five top-seven results).

We may not have seen as much of Collin as we're used to in the 2024 Fall Swing, but in one of his two appearances since the TOUR Championship, Morikawa gained over six and a half shots between his driving and iron play on route to a 4-1 record in September's President's Cup.

Despite a nearly 15-month winless spell, I have all the confidence in the world in Collin Morikawa's trajectory.

He came runner-up twice to Scottie Scheffler on established comfort courses last year (Muirfield Village and Eastlake) in the midst of what was a truly historic season for the World No. 1. This week, he'll have a perfect opportunity to once again establish himself as one of the top contenders for Scottie's throne.

Ludvig Åberg (20-1)

A birdie on No. 1 gets Ludvig Aberg's day off to the perfect start. 🇸🇪#GenesisScottishOpen pic.twitter.com/q0HZswT7t1

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) July 13, 2024

Speaking of talented youngsters hungry for a statement win, Ludvig Åberg recorded three runner-up finishes in his sophomore campaign and gained 25 spots in the World Golf Rankings since his maiden Tour victory at the 2023 RSM Classic. Now at a career-high mark of fifth in the world, the 25-year-old from Eslöv, Sweden, enters the New Year with ambitions of superstardom.

He's certainly got the game to enter that stratosphere, as Åberg is the only player in this field to rank inside the top 10 in Driving Distance, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Birdie Chances Created. He also sits first in Proximity to the Hole from <100 yards and second from another of my key proximity ranges: 150-175.

He's putted very well historically on the slower coastal greens of Pebble Beach and Sea Island, and he led the field in Total Driving in his last start at Albany, beating the field average in driving distance by 14 yards while hitting 80.8% of his fairways.

The weapons are all there for Ludvig to win on any course on the planet, but it is worth noting that his only Stateside triumph to date came at a winning score of 29-under par.

It's clear that Åberg has no trouble keeping the peddle down when the game is clicking on all cylinders, and with the way he can separate from his peers off of the tee, Ludvig is sure to have a similar volume of attackable wedge shots this week -- just as he did at the RSM 14 months ago.

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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller

2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)

Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo

— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023

Sam Burns (28-1)

Sam Burns 👀👀👀👀

Birdie-Eagle-birdie

1 back of Denny at +750 live to win @FDSportsbook pic.twitter.com/1H0oG9YlSq

— Golfbet (@Golfbet) August 16, 2024

With the flurry of top results, he showcased to conclude the 2024 playoffs, it's a pity we didn't get to see Sam Burns in a meaningful capacity to end the calendar year.

He did come a half-point away from sharing top American honors with Xander Schafuffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Morikawa in September's President's Cup but put forth a rather lackluster 14th-place finish in his only stroke play showing at the Hero World Challenge.

On paper, however, Burns shines as one of the best course fits in the field at Kapalua.

His immense distance will play extremely well around these ultra-forgiving fairways, and among the top names in attendance, there is nobody who is likely to run the tables on these Bermudagrass greens. In fact, despite a rather pedestrian history at the Sentry over his first three starts, Burns has never lost strokes on the putting surfaces of Kapalua (even gaining a season-best 5.1 strokes putting here in 2023).

Burns also ranks inside the top 20 in my weighted proximity modeling (focused primarily on wedge/long-iron play); he ranks sixth in Total Birdie Chances Created and ended his 2024 season by gaining strokes on approach in five consecutive starts (including the Open Championship and all three legs of the FedEx Cup playoffs).

I always like Burns's chances best on easier Bermudagrass tracks with less emphasis placed on middle-iron play and driving accuracy. Kapalua checks every box in those regards, and given his recent run of results, I don't believe 28-1 fully encapsulates his upside this week.

Akshay Bhatia (90-1)

This was a ridiculous chip-in birdie by Akshay Bhatia. 🤯

📺 Golf Channel pic.twitter.com/lxG6hGZMqZ

— Golf Channel (@GolfChannel) December 6, 2024

Discretion is often the better part of valor in the betting streets, but in the case of DraftKings' Sentry futures board, which debuted in early December, there were many great prices to be had (particularly before the withdrawal of Scottie Scheffler). I myself looked at many numbers I'd gladly add to my portfolio at this point in the process, but we were able to secure a 90-1 position on Akshay Bhatia.

Now priced as low as 28-1 in some spots, I don't necessarily advise chasing him up the board to this extreme, but looking at 2025 as a whole, I definitely qualify the 22-year-old as one of the premier breakout candidates on Tour.

His historically temperamental putting splits were largely alleviated by a switch to a broomstick-style flat stick ahead of the 2023 Fall Swing and netted him five high-end performances on the greens (gaining at least four strokes to the field).

One such performance came right here at Kapalua 12 months ago: as Bhatia ranked third in the field in putting in his Sentry debut and entered the final round with a legitimate shot at his biggest-ever title (one behind eventual champion Chris Kirk).

Akshay would not have to wait much longer for his hard work to bear fruit; however, the first top-level win eventually came just three months later in San Antonio, and two more close calls at the Rocket Mortgage and the Travelers shortly followed.

With finishes of second and fourth over his last two starts to close 2024, it should come as no surprise if Akshay comes out of the gates just as hot in 2025.

His combination of precision driving, surgical approach play, and a much-improved feel on the greens makes him a threat virtually anywhere he tees it up, and I'll be looking for every opportunity to jump on the Bhatia wagon should the numbers continue to point his way.

Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!

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