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Ian McNeill's free PGA betting picks. Ian provides analysis and an introductory guide to golf live betting on the PGA Tour by making selections both before and during the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open.
Between Monday's Course Preview piece (found right here on RotoBaller), and last night's podcast (currently posted on our X page), we've given all of you every possible trend, key stat, and player take needed to make the most educated betting decisions possible this week at the Renaissance Club. This Wednesday article will now serve as a final bow to wrap up a jam-packed week of PGA content at Flag Hunting. No fluff, no rants or superfluous soliloquies, just the entirety of our 2024 Scottish Open outright betting card.
The four names on this betting card are aimed at returning about 6.5 times our investment. Because of the inflated odds associated with the outright market, it becomes even more imperative to remain disciplined when setting your unit allocations from this article's picks. Golf outright betting is a notoriously fickle beast, and multiple month-long droughts are very much within the range of outcomes. However, at these prices, one single hit can pay off many weeks of poor decision-making.
In the over two-year history at Flag Hunting, we've been fortunate enough to cash a total of 24 outright winners (a 20.0% hit rate) for a profit of over $14,000 (betting roughly $350 per week) and an aggregate ROI of 33.8%. The volatility of the sport means I can't promise you a winner in any given tournament. But if you're willing to bet methodically and stick with the process, outright golf betting has the potential to be one of the most profitable (and enjoyable) betting sweats in the business. But I suppose I'd better keep my word about the necessary rants, so with no further ado, here's every bet I've made for the 2024 Genesis Scottish Open!
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Scottish Open Betting Card
Ludvig Aberg (17-1)
We asked Ludvig Aberg about *that* 292-yard 7 wood shot from the U.S. Open. 😂 pic.twitter.com/taOK56NAfX
— Golf Digest (@GolfDigest) June 21, 2024
I know he hasn't quite cashed in for his outright backers at these lofty price points in 2024, but with each passing week, I cannot help but grow more and more fond of Ludvig’s weekly prospects. He’s found himself in legitimate contention in both his Masters and U.S. Open debuts: Both driver heavy courses that play exceedingly firm and fast, came fifth at his debut at Muirfield Village, and if not for the worst putting performance of his young career at the Travelers, would have assuredly logged yet another top finish in an elevated event (5th in SG: Tee-to-Green; -7.2 strokes putting).
I’m not at all worried about this minor blip on the greens one week after an exhausting four days at Pinehurst. And now, he heads to a venue that has not only been very friendly to elite drivers through the years (Rory, Xander, Min Woo, Kitayama, Detry, Fitz, etc.), but also one that should suit his current long-iron form like a glove (2nd in this field in Weighted Proximity over the last five months, 3rd in GIR Percentage, 8th in SG: Approach).
Ludvig's stock also rises on a golf course that features the easiest around the green complexes on the PGA Tour: a facet of the game that cost him dearly around the treacherous chipping confines of Augusta National and Pinehurst No. 2, and Aberg has also happened to find two of his best putting weeks on coastal tracks where greens need to be slowed down for threat of winds (Pebble Beach; Sea Island). I've been hesitant to buy into the 2023 Texas Tech Grad in some of his more high profile debuts, but he's consistently exceeded my expectations on the game's biggest (and most demanding) stages. At this point, I'm comfortable enough deploying his services regardless of the venue -- and if he continues to be priced anywhere near the 20-1 range going forward, you can bet he’ll at least find a way on my weekly shortlist.
Tommy Fleetwood (25-1)
Tommy Fleetwood. Birdie to finish. T2. pic.twitter.com/e8NOKJpMQM
— Fore Play (@ForePlayPod) July 15, 2023
If Ludvig's write-up was all about a projection on sheer ability, Tommy Fleetwood’s place in this piece is all about his fit in this unique environment. The Englishman has been the most consistent links player on the planet over the last five years: recording ten top-twelve finishes in 14 starts at the Open Championship, Scottish Open, and Alfred Dunhill Links Championship since 2018.
Fleetwood's proficiency not only in the wind but also on and around the traditionally slower green complexes on the links makes him an ever-present threat in the British Isles. And this season, Fleetwood comes into his homecoming with some added momentum: ranking fifth in SG: Total over the last three months, and inside the top 30 in each of the four Strokes Gained categories.
This elite all-around skillset has allowed Tommy to record just one finish worse than 26th through a nine-start stretch since the start of April, and in the month of June, Tommy finally put his traditionally elite ball-striking back on display. In four starts from Canada to Muirfield Village, Pinehurst, and the Travelers, Fleetwood gained an average of 4.27 strokes with his driving and approach play: a mark that sits behind only Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, Ludvig Aberg, and Rory McIlroy in that time.
I know 25-1 outright bets on Fleetwood have't exactly returned positive value over the course of his career, but with his history around links tracks and his incoming form, I do believe he represents the safest entity in this field outside of the last two defending champions. He famously won his first-ever pro tournament as a fresh-faced 22-year-old at Gleneagles, and, I think he's got a great chance of repeating the trick for his first PGA Tour title just a couple hours down the Scottish coastline.
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Final 2023 Golf Betting Results:
(Individual breakdowns of all sections in thread) @RotoBaller2023 (+16.634 Units)
2022 (+67.485 Units)
2021 (+68.846 Units)
2020 (+37.015 Units)
2019 (+27.743 Units)
2018 (+55.88 Units)
2017 (+54.26 Units)Overall: (+327.863 Units) pic.twitter.com/tuaDfwFXlo
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) November 21, 2023
Tom Kim (30-1)
NEARLY JARS IT!
Trailing by one, Tom Kim will have 10 feet for birdie at the last. pic.twitter.com/RJWO0Qd7uS
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) June 23, 2024
We alluded to his elite incoming ball-striking form in the previous write-up, and perhaps nowhere on the planet is a trending Tom Kim more exciting than on the British links. Despite spending many of his developmental years traveling around Asia, the 22-year-old Korean has looked right at home in his introduction to golf in the British Isles: logging finishes of third and sixth through two starts here at Renaissance and recording his best ever Major finish (T2), in last year's Open Championship at Royal Liverpool.
Kim also comes into the week as one of the hottest golfers on the planet: gaining nearly five strokes per start with his ball-striking in the month of June and coming just one poor wedge shot short of besting World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler at the Travelers Championship three weeks ago. The 22-year-old phenom displayed tremendous poise throughout the week: logging weekend rounds of 65-66 despite entering the third round with the task of fending off three of the game's top five players.
Tom has plenty left to prove on the sport's longest tracks, but those weekend rounds in Cromwell proved to me that he's more than capable of taking down top titles on venues that suit his style of play. There are no questions about his fit here in Scotland, and with the confidence he's currently playing with, Tom Kim is incredibly live not only this week but perhaps to capture his first-ever Major title on Scotland's western coast.
Matt Fitzpatrick (40-1)
Matt Fitzpatrick hits his tee shot close on Golden Bell, No. 12. #themasters pic.twitter.com/mRVfqszN3g
— The Masters (@TheMasters) April 11, 2024
Fleetwood and Kim might have more extensive track records in the British Isles in the last two seasons, but priced 10-plus points behind them on the odds board is a Major Champion who also happened to win in the last top-level links event contested on Scottish soil. Last October, Matthew Fitzpatrick fired rounds of 67-64-66 around Carnoustie, Kingsbarn, and St. Andrews to capture a weather-shortened Alfred Dunhill Links Championship -- defeating the likes of Tommy Fleetwood, Ryan Fox, Billy Horschel, and a selection of the DP World Tour's biggest names in his eighth career triumph in Europe.
This season, Fitzpatrick has had trouble establishing weekly consistency, but there have been intermittent signs of the player that reached a career high of sixth in the Official World Golf Rankings. Matt ranks ninth on the PGA Tour this season in Total Driving, he's a top 15 entity in this field in Proximity from >150 yards (a range for which ~2/3s of approach shots are expected to come this week), and he's logged finishes of second, sixth, and fourteenth over his last four starts at the Scottish Open.
With top five finishes already to his name at TPC Sawgrass and Muirfield Village this season, Fitzpatrick's already proven more than capable of contending on the Tour's biggest stages. At 40-1 this week, I'll gladly take a shot at a well-documented comfort course. After all, we're not so far removed from Fitzy being touted as one of the clearest breakout candidates in world golf.
Best of luck, guys, and happy hunting!
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