X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Five Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers To Target In 2024 Drafts

Tanner Bibee - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Prospects

Jamie Steed looks at five starting pitchers going after pick 100 in fantasy baseball drafts. Despite being drafted in the middle to late rounds, they can outperform their ADP and provide value on your fantasy rosters.

The starting pitcher climate continues to evolve and fantasy baseball managers have to adapt. Gone are the days when starters routinely throw over 100 pitches in a start while getting through seven or more innings of work. While that does represent new challenges, it also opens up more pitching strategies.

Regardless of how you plan your draft when it comes to pitching, getting later-round starters who perform better than their ADP can be the biggest difference-maker in your fantasy leagues. To help you on your way to a fantasy title, we're looking at five starting pitchers who are all going outside the top 100 picks but are all in great positions to outperform their ADP.

While there are many starting pitchers who tick that box, these are five who stand out early in draft season. Don't forget to keep up to date with all your preseason fantasy baseball needs by following RotoBaller on X . Without further ado, here are five later-round starting pitchers who are primed to outperform their ADP.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Tanner Bibee, Cleveland Guardians

It's easy to look at Bibee's numbers last year and think he'll be an SP1 in 2024. In 25 starts (142.0 IP), the rookie had a 10-4 W-L record, 2.98 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 141 Ks. He's generally being drafted just outside the top 30 starting pitchers and has an ADP of ~115. However, Bibee is someone I see ending the year comfortably as a top-20 starter and even pushing for SP1 status.

The runner-up for the AL Rookie of the Year award does have a couple of red flags. He ended the year on the IL with a hip injury but is expected to be a full go for spring training. Then there's the 4.22 xFIP and 4.19 SIERA, making Bibee's sub-3.00 ERA look like a mirage. While I do agree that we'll see some regression in 2024, I'm not too concerned by his ERA ballooning.

In a limited sample, Bibee outperformed his xFIP in the minors. His .286 BABIP last year suggests he can put up a low ERA. The fact he had a 6.1% Barrel% (80th percentile) should help with that. Bibee has a four-pitch arsenal, and unlike some starters, they are all above average pitches. Just look at the run value for his repertoire last year, courtesy of Baseball Savant.

One of the biggest reasons I'm in on Bibee this year is how he improved as the season went on. Comparing his first-half and second-half numbers will show us that Bibee increased the strikeouts (from 23.7% K% to 24.5% K%) and lowered his walks (from 9.0% BB% to 6.3% BB%). A large part of that was Bibee getting more swings and misses, as evidenced by a 12.8% SwStr% in the second half (9.6% SwStr% in the first half).

Bibee's slider (.227 xwOBA) and changeup (.236 xwOBA) will continue to rack up strikeouts. With an increased workload, he could reach 175 Ks if the quality of those pitches remains. Only 13 pitchers managed a 3.50 ERA or better with 175 Ks last year. Both these stats are well within Bibee's capability. That kind of season would leave him as a borderline SP1 and would mean Bibee considerably outperforms his ADP.

 

Bryan Woo, Seattle Mariners

There are currently 50 starting pitchers being drafted before Woo, according to his ADP (~189). As of this writing, there are only around 30 starting pitchers I'd rather have on my fantasy roster than Woo. In his rookie season, Woo made 18 starts (87.2 IP) with a 4-5 W-L record, 4.21 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and 93 Ks.

Woo got called up to the majors after posting a 2.05 ERA in nine starts at Double-A, skipping Triple-A completely. That may mean he starts the year in the minors and it's unlikely Woo has a huge workload this year. But he totaled 131.2 IP across the two levels last year, so 160 IP in 2024 is far from unreasonable.

Woo largely relies on three pitches, a four-seam fastball, a sinker, and a cutter. All of them had a sub-.300 xwOBA with the fastball (30.3% Whiff%) and cutter (33.0% Whiff%) picking up plenty of strikeouts. Woo also limited hard contact, with a 6.3% Barrel% (77th percentile) and 33.8% hard-hit% (83rd percentile).

As things currently stand, Woo is slated to be part of the Mariners' Opening Day roster. Although he was set to miss the first half of the season, the fact they traded away Robbie Ray suggests the Mariners are happy with Woo and their young rotation for the 2024 season and beyond. Their faith in Woo should be rewarded and his fantasy managers will feel the same way.

 

Ryan Pepiot, Tampa Bay Rays

Pepiot figured to compete for a rotation spot with the Dodgers before he was sent to Tampa Bay as part of the Tyler Glasnow trade. He's now almost a lock to start the season in the majors. While fantasy managers have long been frustrated with the Rays' usage of their starters, it's difficult to question the results. Pepiot is set to be another breakout star in Tampa Bay.

With an ADP of ~202, Pepiot has plenty of room to outperform his perceived value. Pepiot has totaled 78.1 IP in the majors over the last two years and has an impressive 2.76 ERA. In what feels like an exception rather than the norm nowadays, Pepiot has 155.2 IP at Triple-A, with a 3.99 ERA to show for it. He struck out 186 batters at Triple-A and with a 25.1% K% in the majors, he should be a solid source of strikeouts.

Even with the Rays, Pepiot looks set to be a safer pick compared to many being taken around the 200th pick. Pepiot is set to have a solid ERA, a good number of strikeouts, and a decent number of wins, making him an ideal option to offset a riskier pick. He did miss four months last year with an oblique injury. There are few pitchers without question marks after pick 200, but Pepiot will still likely outperform his ADP.

 

Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies

Before the 2023 season began, Sánchez had a 5.47 ERA (52.2 IP) in the majors with most of his work coming out of the bullpen (four starts). He ended the year starting Game 4 of the NLCS. It was quite the turnaround for Sánchez and if we look at his numbers, it was completely justified. In 19 appearances (18 starts), Sánchez had a 3-5 W-L record, 3.44 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 96 Ks.

The one major slight on Sánchez before last year was the walks. After walking 24 batters in 52.2 IP before last year (10.2% BB%), Sánchez walked only 16 batters in 99.1 IP in 2023 (4.0% BB%). While it warrants believing Sánchez has improved his control, he had a 10.5% BB% in the minors (450.1 IP). That makes it difficult to fully get behind Sánchez and his 98th percentile walk rate.

Sánchez's improved control didn't come as a detriment to the strikeouts either. His 24.2% K% was up from the 20.3% K% he put up before 2023. Sánchez managed to maintain both marks throughout the season. Sánchez is 27 years old, so concerns about a rookie workload aren't necessary. With an ADP of ~253, it's certainly worth the risk of him regressing to his wilder early days. Even if he holds some gains in the control department, that will present fantasy value.

 

Logan Allen, Cleveland Guardians

This is the second Guardians pitcher on the list, but this one is going undrafted in most 12-team leagues. Allen has an ADP of ~471 in early NFBC drafts despite being locked into a rotation spot and on the back of an impressive rookie season. In 24 starts (125.1 IP), Allen had a 7-8 W-L record, 3.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 119 Ks.

The elevated WHIP wasn't just down to a high walk rate, with his 8.9% BB% ranking in the 42nd percentile. Allen had a .314 BABIP, which is partly down to being a 'soft-tossing leftie', but was still higher than you'd expect. That will also go toward explaining Allen's 4.28 xFIP and 4.49 SIERA. A look at Allen's Statcast profile doesn't paint a rosy picture, but it does show one very notable promising sign.

Allen's changeup was elite, with a .215 xBA, .285 xSLG, and .252 xwOBA. His sweeper wasn't far behind with a .266 xwOBA, but had a .305 wOBA compared to his changeup, which had a .219 wOBA. If they both normalize toward their expected numbers, both will be very good pitches. Given Allen threw his sweeper 22.0% of the time and his changeup 21.2%, he won't need to be too reliant on his so-so fastball, which averaged 91.4 mph.

I'm not expecting fireworks from Allen and he's not someone I'd draft ahead of anyone else on this list. But he showed more than enough promise in his rookie season and even if he only repeats last year's numbers, he'll still be much more worthy than just a last-round pick. It isn't a stretch to believe he'll improve in his sophomore season, especially on a team that's had a track record of developing pitching.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF