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The wide receiver position has quickly become a favorite of mine to scout and take gambles on. They're a ton of fun to predict and project, and I love to load up on them in fantasy football drafts -- particularly in dynasty formats. In recent seasons, I have regularly employed a "zero" or "hero-RB" strategy when drafting, and although it was terrifying at first, the rewards can be satiating. If you can get past the mental hurdle of leaving running backs for dead, you, too, might find this to be your preferred plan of attack.
Aside from WR options being plentiful, they tend to hold their value quite a bit longer than their running-back counterparts. In addition to the draw of their lengthier career spans, fantasy gamers aren't so quick to jump ship on a young wideout with a high NFL Draft capital when he underperforms early in his career. This is not to say it's all "roses," though. While compelling and impactful, wide receivers, including the position's elite options, can be. We can even look to as recent as last year for evidence of this. Stefon Diggs began 2023 as hot as just about any other WR. From Week 1 to Week 9, he was the WR3 behind only Tyreek Hill and A.J. Brown. However, from Week 10 on, Diggs was the WR44 in total scoring.
While the NFL landscape can change rapidly, I tend to place my bets on WRs due to the ongoing trend of running-back-by-committee and the overall fragility of the RB position. With new opportunities emerging for the 2024 season, I will present five risky wide-receiver buys for your strategic consideration. As the NFL season approaches, now is the perfect time to make some deals to strengthen your WR corps and your overall fantasy lineup. Let's dive in.
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Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
Since being drafted No. 11 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft, Chris Olave has been one of the better young wide receivers in the league. While he has yet to have his breakout season exactly, Olave has been a strong producer for us in fantasy. In 2023, he was the WR16 in PPR formats, a nice upgrade from the WR25 finish he produced as a rookie. He hasn't had a season with less than 1,000 yards, nor has he caught less than 72 balls. The only thing lacking for Olave has been the touchdowns, as he garners a career total of nine.
With a few more TDs, Olave might have cracked the top 12 at his position last season. Although he made a few bonehead mistakes of his own, I believe his average performance was more an indication of his offense and not his own skill set. He is a detailed route runner and held an above-average success rate on every route but the corner last year. Olave gets open at will and at all three levels of the field. With an upgrade on offense, 2024 could prove to be the breakout we've been waiting for.
The 2023 New Orleans Saints offense was bereft of creativity and, for lack of a better term, was relatively stagnant. They ran motion at the snap at one of the lowest rates in the league -- the seventh lowest, in fact (14.3%), but that is about to change in a big way this upcoming season.
The Saints fired Pete Carmichael Jr. this offseason and replaced him with one of last season's better candidates, Klint Kubiak. Kubiak spent 2023 as the passing game specialist for the San Francisco 49ers offense and stands to improve the Saints offense this season starkly. Last year, San Francisco ran motion at the snap nearly 38% of the time (37.7%) and ranked second in the NFL in total offense (398.4 yards per game).
Final motion report for the 2023 season!
In 2017 NFL teams put a man in motion at the snap 4% of the time, on average. In 2023 the average was 22%!
Data via @ESPNStatsInfo video tracking team. pic.twitter.com/Ar67rJ9yWE
— Seth Walder (@SethWalder) January 16, 2024
Kubiak played a critical role in the success of the 49ers in 2023, and I'm excited about what he will bring to the Saints this year. While Derek Carr isn't going anywhere, he wasn't as bad as you think. Per PlayerProfiler, Carr ranked fifth in true passer rating (103.6) and had the best completion percentage versus man coverage in the league (62.6%). He played better as the year went on, too, as Carr threw 15 of his 25 passing touchdowns from Week 13 on -- the QB6 in that span.
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
With the emergence of rookie phenom C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins had his full breakout in 2023. After a WR77 finish in 2022 where we saw him have a subpar 37 receptions/481 yards/two touchdowns line, Collins erupted last season -- doubling his receptions (80), quadrupling his TDs (eight), and nearly tripling his yards (1,297). He had two games with more than 190 receiving yards and looked like a true alpha out at the X WR spot.
The gamble here comes not from Collins' production but from the situation around him. Tank Dell was a weapon in his own right, and some might argue Collins would not have had the year he did if Dell had not gone down with a fractured fibula. Dell should be healthy this year, but even if he isn't early on, Collins now has Diggs to contend with along with Dalton Schultz not going anywhere. Schultz poses the most minor threat to Collins' target share, but this is a loaded offense with many mouths to feed. Despite all this, Collins was his team's best route runner, which is true even if we factor in Diggs.
After charting Collins' routes in 2023, Matt Harmon's Reception Perception confirms that he has entered elite territory. Collins garnered success-rate scores against man and press coverage in the 94th and 96th percentiles, respectively. To put this in context, his 82.5% success rate versus press puts him in the conversation with the likes of Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and A.J. Brown -- a highly touted group of pass-catchers.
While his output on a week-to-week basis could be inconsistent in 2024, you might also find a fantasy manager worried about his prospects because of the other talent around him. If he shows up early in the season, Collins could become a locked-in top-10 option, and at that point, it will be too late to acquire him.
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Speaking of full-on breakouts, Brandon Aiyuk also enjoyed one in the 2023 season. Aiyuk had three fewer receptions -- on nine fewer targets -- than he did in 2022, but his yards per catch skyrocketed from 13.01 to 17.89. He was uber-efficient and rewarded fantasy managers with a WR14 finish in half and full-point PPR formats. 2023 marked back-to-back seasons where Aiyuk finished as a top-15 fantasy performer at his position. He's trending in the right direction, and with a skosh more volume, he could easily crack the top 12 of fantasy scorers at wideout.
The concerns with Aiyuk are obvious -- what if he is less efficient? Or worse, what if his volume goes down? There have also been talks of San Francisco trading one of him or Deebo Samuel Sr. I'm not too worried about Aiyuk being traded, as the 49ers coaching staff stated it was more likely to trade Deebo after the draft, so the more pressing concern is his volume.
Including Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle, four players accumulated 83 or more targets last season. Aiyuk led this bunch with 105, and I firmly believe this offense is at its best when it has a strong option running pristine routes on the outside. Aiyuk fits that bill, but he lined up all over the formation and should continue to be a vital part of this offense moving forward. If Samuel is traded, I'll be even more bullish on Aiyuk's outlook.
Brandon Aiyuk in Week 11: 5 catches for 156 yards including a 76-yard TD 👏@THE2ERA | @49ers pic.twitter.com/kJon4fEhCR
— NFL (@NFL) November 21, 2023
Most encouragingly, Aiyuk will continue to play with Brock Purdy. Purdy finished last season with the fifth-most passing yards (4,280) and the third-most passing touchdowns (31) despite the 20th-most passing attempts in the league (444). As McCaffrey ages and begins to see his efficiency wane, there should be more passing attempts to go around in San Francisco's offense. Aiyuk projects as the most likely candidate to receive the bulk of them, and we should see him thrive again in 2024 as a critical piece in Kyle Shanahan's offense.
Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers
The Green Bay Packers have one of the youngest wide receiver corps in the league, and aside from Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks might be the most intriguing option amongst them. Jordan Love has the propensity to spread the ball around, and Wicks still needs to become a full-time player. However, when one of the Packers wideouts couldn't make the field, Wicks filled in and was a solid option.
It's encouraging to see Wicks playing all over the field. He lined up outside on 64.6% of his routes and spent 30.2% in the slot. His season was a "slow burn," but he began to cook as the year progressed. I reference Reception Perception whenever I can when evaluating WRs, and Wicks' underlying data points to a player who can shine in Matt LaFleur's offense if he can capture a starting role.
Per his RP profile, Wicks was lethal on deep, out-breaking routes. He garnered a 90% success rate on the out-route, 83.3% on the corner, and an absurd 100% success rate on comebacks. The latter of which was just 1.1% of his routes, but it's clear he's got something going here when working the sidelines.
The biggest gripe about Wicks will be his playing time. It can be challenging to wrap your head around trading for a player who may need help seeing the field in a stacked Packers WR room. However, at his price -- Wicks is absolutely worth paying for. He's an afterthought right now in dynasty ADP on Sleeper, sitting at WR71 -- No. 163 overall. I find it hard to believe he can't outproduce that price, and I wouldn't be surprised if you could get him in a swap straight-up for a third-round rookie pick.
Rome Odunze (R), Chicago Bears
The 2024 wide receiver class is among the most hyped in recent history. Aside from incredible depth, three elite prospects sit atop this group -- Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze. Odunze is the consensus WR3 of that group, but there's reason to believe the gap between him and the first two is much smaller than you might think. In fact, after the NFL Combine, I officially moved Odunze up to No. 2 ahead of Nabers and did everything I could to grab him in every rookie draft I participated in.
Odunze exploded onto the scene in 2023 with the rest of the Washington Huskies offense, leading the NCAA in receiving yards (1,640) while tying for sixth in receptions (92) and touchdowns (13). He's been a bit overshadowed by his draft mates, but Odunze would be the first rookie wideout off the board in almost any other draft, and that's a deserved endorsement. Based on his combine and advanced metrics, PlayerProfiler has pegged Odunze's best comparable player as Justin Jefferson. Whoa.
His NFL Combine performance is really what tipped the scales in my evaluation of him, and then Reception Perception confirmed it. His 4.03 20-yard shuttle time was excellent, and at 6-foot-3, a 4.45 40-yard dash is uber-impressive. A 6.88 three-cone drill is fine, but this is where Odunze's work ethic shined.
Unhappy with his performance, he tried repeatedly to break 6.6, even lingering on the field after the cameras had turned off. They didn't stay off for long, though, as after everyone realized how determined he was to run a better time, he drew a large crowd. His stubbornness prompted NFL Network's Stacey Dales to say, "He's the last player out here doing anything. I've never seen anything like this."
Determination aside, Odunze's RP profile points to a player that exceeds anything we thought of him prior. His 76.2% success rate versus man coverage puts him in the conversation with the prospect profiles of DeVonta Smith and Chris Olave, while his 83.5% success against zone puts him smack in the middle of those two.
Perhaps most impressive was his work against the press. Odunze saw press coverage on 24.5% (!) of his routes and garnered an 80% success rate, putting him in the 92nd percentile of prospects -- that's better than both Nabers and Harrison Jr. He also worked his way to the most coveted of all RP honors -- a "full green" route tree.
If you want to go get him, it will cost you. While I'm very bullish on his long-term outlook, it won't be easy to trust him immediately in 2024. While Caleb Williams is regarded as one of the best quarterback prospects in recent history -- he's still a rookie.
Less encouraging for his 2024 output is that Odunze will now share the field with two superstar WRs -- DJ Moore and Keenan Allen. I expect 2025 and on to be much better in terms of production, but I am fine with buying him before his price skyrockets and letting him sit on my bench for a season while he works his way into the starting rotation.
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