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Mike Barner looks at five relief pitchers to target in 2024 fantasy baseball drafts. These pitchers could be values at their current ADP.
Drafting relief pitchers can be tricky for fantasy baseball, specifically closers. It’s a volatile job, with even the best of closers sometimes having a down season. For example, Josh Hader, who is considered one of the most dominant closers in the game, finished the 2022 season with a 5.22 ERA. He had a 1.23 ERA in 2021, then bounced back from his down 2022 campaign to record a 1.28 ERA last season.
As we dive into the position for fantasy drafts, let’s not focus on the top options like Hader and Emmanuel Clase. They are going to go earlier in drafts and both could finish with at least 40 saves this season.
Let’s dig into some of the mid-tier closer options to target as you work your way through your draft.
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Jordan Romano, Toronto Blue Jays
Romano has emerged as a reliable closer for the Blue Jays, posting exactly 36 saves in both of the last two seasons. He blew six saves in 2022 and just four saves last season. He also had a strikeout rate of at least 28.3 percent on both campaigns. While Romano couldn’t duplicate his 2.11 ERA and 2.82 FIP from 2022, he was still great with a 2.90 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in 2023.
There is a lot to like about Romano’s supporting stats. Last season, he had a 35.9 percent whiff rate and a 29.0 percent strikeout rate. After recording a 33.7 percent whiff rate on his slider in 2022, he had a 38.6 percent whiff rate on the pitch in 2023. The Blue Jays will field a competitive team again, which should afford Romano with plenty of save opportunities. Clase has an ADP of 55 in Yahoo leagues, while Hader is right behind him with an ADP of 56. Romano’s ADP is well behind them at 78, so he has the potential to provide significant value.
Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins
Looking at the Baseball Savant stat page for Duran is a sea of red, which is a great thing. He regularly throws over 100 mph, which helped him generate a 35.2 percent whiff rate and a 32.9 percent strikeout rate last season. With hitters having a hard time making contact against him, he gave up just 46 hits over 62.1 innings.
Last season marked Duran’s first opportunity to be a regular closer and he came away with 27 saves. He did have some command issues, posting a 9.8 percent walk rate. However, his ability to miss bats helped make up for that and left him with a 2.45 ERA and a 3.21 FIP. Combine his strikeout rate and job security with a reasonable 77 ADP and Duran is another excellent closer to target.
Paul Sewald, Arizona Diamondbacks
Sewald recorded 34 saves while splitting last season between the Mariners and the Diamondbacks. Unlike many of the top closer options in fantasy baseball, he has home run issues, giving up 1.3 HR/9 for his career. He has done a good job of limiting the damage on them, though, recording a 1.15 WHIP for his career.
Sewald induced a lot of weak contact last season, allowing a 5.6 percent barrel rate and a 29.9 percent hard-hit rate. He also missed plenty of bats on his way to a 32.1 percent strikeout rate. The Diamondbacks made it to the World Series last season and look to make another deep playoff run after adding Eduardo Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, and Joc Pederson during the winter. With plenty of save chances likely coming his way again, Sewald could be well worth his Yahoo ADP of 98.
Evan Phillips, Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers made themselves the most loaded team in baseball with their robust spending this offseason. One area that they didn’t make a ton of changes to is their bullpen. Phillips closed out the majority of games for them last season, converting 24 of his 27 attempts.
The only bit of caution that comes with drafting Phillips is that, because the Dodgers are so loaded, they might not be involved in a lot of close games. However, THE BAT and Steamer both have him projected to finish with 30 saves, while ATC has him projected for 27 saves.
Phillips can also help with ratios, finishing last season with a 2.05 ERA, 3.16 FIP, and a 0.83 WHIP. He showed excellent control, recording a 5.6 percent walk rate to go along with his 28.2 percent strikeout rate. With his ADP sitting at 100, he might be even more appealing than Sewald. Don’t be surprised if he passes Sewald’s ADP as we get closer to the start of the season.
Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Holmes has broken out in a big way since being traded to the Yankees. He was given his first chance at extensive save opportunities in 2022, converting 20 of his 25 chances. He gave up just two home runs over 63.2 innings that season, which has been an area of strength for him, given his 0.5 HR/9 allowed for his career.
Holmes had similar success in 2023, converting 24 of 27 save opportunities. His 2.86 ERA was supported by an even better 2.65 FIP. He also posted a career-high 27.1 percent strikeout rate. The Yankees upgraded their lineup and starting rotation during the offseason but didn’t add anyone to their bullpen who could take save opportunities away from Holmes. ATC has him projected to finish with 29 saves, while Steamer has him projected to record 31 of them. His ADP on Yahoo is all the way down to 138, making him a stellar option for fantasy managers who don’t want to use a top-100 pick on a closer.
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