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Five Fantasy Football Sleepers Who Will Stay Asleep in 2016

Ah, the sleeper. The very word invokes hope among fantasy football players and sometimes drives pre-draft rankings to take ill-advised turns for the worst. Of course, those middle to late round picks are the stuff that fantasy championships are made of. Knowing which player will have a breakout season or serve as a valuable backup when a starter goes down can make the difference between winning and losing. Not all sleepers are created equal, however. Some simply stay asleep all season long. Here at RotoBaller, we do our best to advise which players to target on draft day. Likewise, we need to point out some names to avoid so that you don't waste valuable draft choices on a sleeper that doesn't pan out. Here are five sleepers that aren't poised to wake up in 2016.

ADP data is taken from FantasyFootballCalculator.com and is current as of July 13th

Editor's Note: Purchase a full season NFL Premium Pass (including Draft Kit + DFS Premium), and also get MLB Premium + DFS for free through October. Premium DFS lineup picks, expert lineups, tools and more - seven days a week. You can see screenshots of our NFL Premium and MLB Premium and DFS tools. What are you waiting for?

 

Five Players Who Will Not Wake Up in 2016

Melvin Gordon (RB, SD): ADP 6.07

Montee Ball, James White, John Clay, Anthony Davis, Brian Calhoun... what do these names have in common? That's right, they are all former Wisconsin Badgers who put up big rushing numbers playing under the same scheme in college and promptly flopped in the NFL. Even Heisman winner Ron Dayne wasn't exactly a rousing success with a 3.8 YPC over a seven year career in which he amassed 3,722 yards. After a disappointing rookie season, Melvin Gordon looks like he will be next in the long line of unsuccessful Wisconsin running backs.

Gordon had every chance to produce as a rookie with Ryan Mathews gone and a veteran quarterback in Philip Rivers handing off the ball. Gordon responded with 641 yards in 184 carries, good for an average of 3.5 yards per carry. He also failed to cross the end zone even once and wound up as one of the bigger fantasy busts at the RB position. He did show good hands, with an 89.8% catch rate, hauling in 33 receptions. The problem is, Danny Woodhead still looms as one of the top pass-catching backs in the league and leaves no need for Gordon on passing downs. The smart pick in San Diego's backfield, even in non-PPR leagues, is Woodhead, not another former Badger who may have seen his best days on a college campus.

Isaiah Crowell (RB, CLE): ADP 9.01

It seems that every season, starters on the Browns are on everyone's list of favorite sleepers, and year after year, those players disappoint. The law of averages dictates that the Browns can't be bad forever, but don't tell them that. This is the same franchise that drafted Johnny Manziel as a solution to their decades-long quarterback problem. They did nothing in the draft or free agency to bolster the running back position, which somehow has translated as a vote of confidence to the tandem of Isaiah Crowell and Duke Johnson. The truth is they had so many more glaring needs in other positions, they are forced to settle for what they already had.

Despite getting the opportunity to be a feature back last season, Crowell was the 27th ranked RB in fantasy points. His yards per carry dropped to 3.8 last season and he was eventually out-snapped by rookie Duke Johnson, who possesses a higher skill set both with his speed and pass-catching ability. Johnson's size and durability issues will limit him to a part-time role, which means Crowell will still tote the rock on 1st and 2nd down on at least half of the Browns' offensive series and on short-yardage downs. There's only so much a mediocre back like Crowell will produce in that time on a team that doesn't project to be one of the top scoring teams in the NFL.

Kamar Aiken (WR, BAL): ADP 11.07

A quick glance at Aiken's 2015 season shows a young receiver who nearly put up 1,000 yards (944) and was targeted 127 times in his first chance to be a full-time player. The underlying reasons behind those numbers tell the full story, however, as a repeat is not bound to happen. Aiken became the top target in Baltimore because there was nobody else worth targeting. Top receiver Steve Smith missed the entire second half of the season with a ruptured Achilles and first-round pick Breshad Perriman didn't play a single down for the Ravens due to knee surgery. This year will be a different story.

Despite a recent scare, Perriman avoided knee surgery and is reportedly on his way to participating in training camp. There isn't a clear timetable for Smith's return, but he will be back at some point early in the season as a starter for Baltimore. The Ravens also added Mike Wallace to provide depth at wide receiver. Before you roll your eyes, keep in mind that Wallace is only 29 and will at least get his share of deep passes. With three tight ends and a stable of running backs also capable of catching passes, Aiken's targets may get cut in half. If anything, I foresee a big dip in production from a receiver who was let go by Buffalo and New England before catching on with a Ravens team desperate for receiving help. At this point, Baltimore's entire receiving corps might be best avoided altogether by fantasy football players.

Stefon Diggs (WR, MIN): ADP 9.08

Stefon Diggs, meet Laquon Treadwell. The first-round pick will be expected to make an immediate impact on a team that ranked 31st in passing yards per game last season. Stefon Diggs, like the above-mentioned Kamar Aiken, led the team in receptions with 52 in large part due to a lack of viable options. It didn't take much for Diggs to leapfrog former fantasy sleepers-turned-busts Charles Johnson and Cordarelle Patterson. Although the Vikings aren't boasting a significantly better group of receivers this year, Treadwell will at least give them a potential star to build around.

In terms of production, Diggs caught 52 passes for 720 yards and four touchdowns in only 13 games, which leads to optimism about his sophomore campaign. However, a majority of Diggs' production came between weeks 4-8, when he accumulated 419 receiving yards in four games. After week 8, he fell off the fantasy map, only recording more than four receptions in a game once the rest of the way. Don't pay a WR3 price for a player who may wind up as the WR3 on a team that is one of the lowest passing volume offenses in the league.

Mohamed Sanu (WR, ATL): ADP 11.09

The Falcons paid a hefty $32 million over five years for a receiver who has never eclipsed 800 receiving yards or caught more than five touchdowns in a season. Sanu comes over from Cincinnati after a disappointing season in which he didn't score once and finished with 33 catches. However, he landed a starting job opposite All-Pro Wide Receiver Julio Jones for a team desperate to find a replacement for former star Roddy White. Don't expect a few years of youth to make a big difference. The problem may not have been White at all, but the offense in which he played.

White has indirectly pointed the finger at OC Kyle Shanahan's offense as the culprit for his sudden drop-off in production. He may have a point. Shanahan has had a habit of funneling targets to one primary receiver, leaving precious few receptions for the secondary receivers. While Jones is bound to put up huge numbers again, just like Andre Johnson and Pierre Garcon did in Shanahan's previous stints, Sanu may be left frustrated along with fantasy owners who take a chance on him. A Jones injury could turn Sanu into fantasy gold, but more than likely he will be best left on fantasy benches throughout the season.

 

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