RADIO
The first five rounds of a fantasy football draft are crucial in determining your team's success for the upcoming season. While hitting on late-round fliers and breakout players is beneficial, the core of your team is built at the top of the draft. Missing early picks in a fantasy draft can leave you behind the rest of your league mates, so for this article, we are going to look at five players who are risky bets at their current ADP.
Unfortunately, not every early-round pick will live up to expectations. By analyzing the data, we can identify players who are more likely to disappoint in the upcoming season and why you should strategize accordingly.
This analysis is based on a standard 10-team fantasy football league. Some players listed here may contribute to your team, but they might not justify their high average draft position (ADP). Let's dive into this exciting part of the draft process and identify five players to avoid in each of the first five rounds.
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Puka Nacua, Round 1, WR - Los Angeles Rams
Current ADP: 10.69
Okay, I will admit that there is not a player to avoid in the first round of fantasy drafts. First-round picks do bust, but this year feels like most players are relatively safe.
Nacua makes this list because of how truly special his rookie season was. That may seem counterintuitive, but Nacua's rookie season could be difficult to replicate. Just ask Ja'Marr Chase. Nacua finished 2024 with a rookie-record 1,486 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2023. The Rams have been the Cooper Kupp show for the last several years, but Nacua took that mantle last season. Kupp appears to be aging out of elite status, but he still displayed a high skill level in the 12 games played in 2023, going for 59 receptions with 737 yards and five touchdowns.
This is why I’m targeting Cooper Kupp over Puka Nacua in fantasy football drafts this summer:
pic.twitter.com/IwMZYtr48u— Moody (@EricNMoody) June 21, 2024
Part of Nacua's success was due to his constant attention from quarterback Matthew Stafford. With Kupp missing five full games during the season due to a hamstring injury, Stafford had to throw the ball to someone. Nacua will continue to be a solid NFL player. However, with a presumably healthy Kupp in the fold, it is hard to envision Nacua replicating his WR4 overall finish in 2024. Nacua may still very well finish inside the top-10 wide receivers in fantasy but someone has to be the odd man out in the first round.
Garrett Wilson, Round 2, WR - New York Jets
Current ADP: 12.55
Wilson is a highly talented wide receiver who has been dealt a difficult hand so far in his two-year career. Due to poor quarterback play from Zach Wilson and others, he has never truly broken out. With QB Aaron Rodgers expected to be back healthy to start the season, many fantasy analysts are projecting the breakout to finally come for Wilson in 2024.
However, we went through the very same song and dance last year. Wilson was a high second-round pick in 2023 fantasy drafts as well. Rodgers lasted four plays before going down to injury and Wilson's value evaporated. Wilson has the talent as well as the traits to be an elite fantasy wide receiver, but banking on a 40-year-old Rodgers coming off a torn Achilles tendon to support Wilson as an elite fantasy asset feels like a less-than-ideal bet to make.
We seem to forget that the last time we saw Rodgers play a full season was in 2022 when he only managed to throw for 3,695 yards and 26 touchdowns. Rodgers also threw double-digit interceptions for the first time since 2010. Rodgers' QBR of 41.3 was good for 26th in the league that year. In other words, Rodgers was certifiably not good in 2022. The stats certainly back that up, but Rodgers also did not pass the eye test, either.
If the 2022 version of Rodgers shows up in 2024, Wilson is not going to live up to his ADP. Rodgers' 2022 receiving corps may have been an inexperienced one, but Rodgers himself showed signs of decline that year. I would rather bet on an established presence to be my No. 1 wide receiver in fantasy this year or draft an elite running back instead of Wilson at his current ADP.
Garrett Wilson is extremely FRUSTRATED with the #Jets.
😳
Not good.
pic.twitter.com/n5i2Ocf41R— MLFootball (@_MLFootball) December 29, 2023
DJ Moore, Round 3, WR - Chicago Bears
Current ADP: 27.99
The third round is chock-full of players who could make this list, but the presence of a rookie quarterback in Chicago places DJ Moore near the top of that group. If Caleb Williams is as advertised, then Moore would very well have an elite fantasy season. Unfortunately, trusting a rookie quarterback to ensure that your third-round pick is a top-15 wide receiver in fantasy is an ill-advised decision.
Williams' weaponry in Chicago includes Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, D'Andre Swift, and of course Moore. The plethora of players to throw to makes it difficult to project who will emerge as an excellent fantasy option as well as the team's overall top target- earner. Allen projects to be a steady producer as a slot receiver as well as a mid-range target. Moore is an athletic deep threat. Given Williams' lack of NFL experience, he may be more inclined to throw it short to the other targets in the offense, at least to start the season. Let's not forget rookie WR Rome Odunze, who was taken ninth overall in the 2024 NFL Draft and could very much be in the mix.
Moore finished as the WR6 in 2023. His numbers were boosted by a 49-point explosion in Week 5. Otherwise, Moore had 10 finishes outside of the top-24 wide receivers. Moore will have boom games, but with a rookie quarterback in town, his consistency could be lacking this year.
Deebo Samuel Sr., Round 4, WR - San Francisco 49ers
Current ADP: 36.61
49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel finished the 2023 season as the WR15. The road was often bumpy as Samuel's managers enjoyed six finishes inside the top 12 and seven outside the top 24. Samuel has also never played a full slate of games due to injuries, which rang true yet again in 2023.
When Samuel has a boom game, it is generally a week-winning performance for your fantasy team. Unfortunately, he does not seem to be able to string those games together consistently as Samuel's WR3 overall finish in 2021 appears to be the outlier. He has never finished higher than WR15 in any other year.
Samuel is currently being drafted as the WR19 in the fourth round. Players such as James Cook, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, and Cooper Kupp are being selected in Samuel's range. All four of those players have demonstrated a weekly ceiling similar to Samuel. Additionally, except for Kupp, all of those players have proven to be healthier than Samuel has for a full season. Samuel is a quality player, but it may be best to look elsewhere than his current draft position.
135 seconds of Deebo Samuel making dudes miss pic.twitter.com/HyaUIZaMJI
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) June 21, 2024
Malik Nabers, Round 5, WR - New York Giants
Current ADP: 49.03
The recent success of rookie wide receivers such as Justin Jefferson, Ja'Marr Chase, and Puka Nacua has continued to push rookie wide receivers up fantasy draft boards each year. Each of those three players landed in a good offense with a good quarterback and none of them were drafted higher than the fifth round of fantasy drafts in their respective rookie seasons.
Nabers is an absolute stud of a wide receiver. Similarly to Garrett Wilson, he has been dealt a tough hand. Daniel Jones is not a bad quarterback, but it is safe to say he is average at best and will be coming off a torn ACL suffered late in the 2023 season. Will their starting QB be healthy and ready for Week 1? Backup Drew Lock waits in the wings, but he has struggled mightily with consistency and accuracy so far in his NFL career. In Jones' defense, he has never been given a true weapon like Nabers, but this offense as a whole should take a step back with the loss of Saquon Barkley.
Nabers is being drafted as the WR24. This puts him as a high-end WR3 or low-end WR2 for the season. Given Nabers' level of talent, the boom games should come, but the consistency of Nabers could be frustrating in managed leagues.
Quarterbacks such as Jalen Hurts or Josh Allen had a receiving weapon like A.J. Brown or Stefon Diggs early in their careers who elevated their games immediately. This could happen for Jones with the addition of Nabers, but a fifth-round pick feels a little too rich to take on that kind of gamble for your fantasy teams.
Thanks for reading! Be sure to stay tuned here at RotoBaller all summer long to help you be prepared for the 2024 fantasy football season.
Malik Nabers’ talent is special pic.twitter.com/q1aXrhKZWn
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) June 12, 2024Thanks for reading!
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