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The NFL offseason is a time of significant player movements that can dramatically alter our draft strategies. This year, we've seen several high-profile players change teams, leading to a reevaluation of their values. These players, once considered top picks, are now slipping down draft boards due to various factors such as a dip in production, new offensive schemes, increased competition, or the uncertainty of a new environment.
But it's not all despair for these players. Consider the case of D'Andre Swift in 2023. With an ADP of 62 last season, many in the fantasy community had written him off after a less-than-productive 2022 season with the Detroit Lions. His move to the Philadelphia Eagles saw him start low on the depth chart, seemingly destined for a timeshare role at best. Yet, he defied all odds, emerging as the undisputed No. 1 for the Eagles. With 1,262 total yards and six touchdowns, he became a dependable RB2 for fantasy managers.
We’ll dive into five players whose draft positions have fallen and explore the reasons behind their descent. Is there a glimmer of hope (can someone say sleeper?), or are they destined to disappoint?
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Austin Ekeler, RB, Washington Commanders
Austin Ekeler's ADP has fallen faster than his yards per carry average in 2023. He was drafted as a top-five overall player last season and is now staring down a bleak ADP of 62. What gives? Well, for starters, his efficiency took a nosedive (3.5 yards per carry), and his touchdown dependency hurt managers all season.
Adding insult to injury, Ekeler swapped powder blue for burgundy, landing in Washington with a backfield already occupied by Brian Robinson Jr. Gone are the days of Ekeler feasting on dump passes and checkdowns from Justin Herbert. Washington's offense is a work in progress, and Robinson figures to vulture short-yardage and goal-line work.
While there are still reasons to be optimistic about Ekeler's potential, it's crucial to acknowledge the challenges he now faces. His elite receiving skills could still make him a valuable asset, particularly in PPR leagues. However, his value is tempered by the crowded backfield and the potential for a low-scoring offense. As a result, drafting Ekeler in the middle rounds is a risky proposition. He could be a potential flex option, but he's no longer the consistent game-changer he once was.
Love seeing Austin Ekeler in the Burgundy & Gold.
I think he's going to be a tremendous weapon/safety blanket for rookie QB Jayden Daniels.
Welcome to Washington, @AustinEkeler! pic.twitter.com/7tcE3jSDVV
— Scott Abraham (@Scott7news) May 14, 2024
Stefon Diggs, WR, Houston Texans
While Diggs' descent on the draft boards is not huge, falling from an ADP of 10 in 2023 to an ADP of 23 for the upcoming season, there are numerous concerns to consider. First, the positive. He is moving to a high-powered offense with solid coaching, a young stud at quarterback in C.J. Stroud, and the talent around him should free him up from double teams.
What gives with the drop, then? For starters, he may not be the best receiver on his team. Houston has an emerging young receiving corps with Nico Collins and Tank Dell who have an obvious connection with Stroud, boasting a combined 2,009 receiving yards in 2023 (even with Dell missing six games).
It creates target competition that Diggs, at 31 years old, has yet to face in years. His elite route running can still be a weapon, but his fantasy ceiling is undeniably lower. While still impressive, the 1,183 yards he totaled in 2023 were the lowest numbers he had since playing with the Minnesota Vikings. He only averaged 9.2 fantasy points a week over his final five weeks of the season.
Diggs could still be a solid WR2 option, especially if he maintains his red-zone presence. But managers should temper expectations. This is a gamble on a veteran adapting to a new situation, not the surefire stud of seasons past.
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Jacobs is rocking the green and gold now, swapping the Raiders' pass-challenged offense for a fresh start with the rising Packers offense and a Jordan Love connection. The not-so-rosy side? The Packers also have a crowded backfield with A.J. Dillon still on the roster and the drafting of USC RB MarShawn Lloyd in the third round.
Jacobs' workload, once a reliable 17.9 carries per game, is suddenly up for grabs. Green Bay loves the run, but with a crowded backfield at the helm, it might not need Jacobs to shoulder the entire rushing attack.
However, there's a silver lining. He replaces Aaron Jones, a back with a similar skill set but less of a touchdown prowess. Jacobs boasts a career touchdown average of 9.2 a season, making him a potential red-zone vulture in a run-heavy offense.
The verdict? Jacobs' fantasy value hinges on his workload. His efficiency will likely rebound if he carves out a true bell-cow role, and Love could unlock his receiving potential. However, with a committee approach looming, Jacobs might be a riskier pick in the early rounds. Keep an eye on training-camp reports and the Packers' offensive scheme developments before drafting him.
Josh Jacobs 😤😤💪💪 #GoPackGo
— GBP Daily - Rob Westerman lll (@GBPdaily) May 29, 2024
Tony Pollard, RB, Tennessee Titans
Tony Pollard was a fantasy darling in 2022 with the Dallas Cowboys, gaining over 1,378 total yards and 12 touchdowns as a backup to Ezekiel Elliott. Before the 2023 season, he became the hot pick to take, as he had the backfield to himself as the lone starter. The season was a disaster for him. His efficiency dropped as the lead guy, posting only four yards a carry and six total touchdowns.
Pollard moves on to Tennessee, and the disappointment of 2023 has made managers cautious, as he now finds himself languishing at an ADP of 80 in 2024 drafts. Despite these red flags, Pollard isn’t completely washed up. His 2023 performance still showed glimpses of his versatility and explosiveness. If the Titans can focus on his strengths, he might find some fantasy relevance.
The change of scenery to the Titans and a porous offensive line means fantasy managers should temper their expectations. But, if you’re feeling lucky, he could be a steal at his current ADP.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Calvin Ridley’s move to the Tennessee Titans has created a lot of uncertainty about his fantasy value. He showed flashes of brilliance in Jacksonville, but the quarterback situation with a young Will Levis is less stable in Tennessee, adding another layer of risk to Ridley’s fantasy outlook.
In 2023, Ridley’s return from suspension and his pairing with Trevor Lawrence was solid, as he posted 1,016 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. His weekly fantasy points were a virtual roller coaster, posting above 13 points over six games and putting up less than five points a game on eight separate occasions, reflecting a season where he struggled to regain his pre-suspension form.
The verdict? Ridley is a gamble. There is potential for a high-efficiency, touchdown-dependent season, but consistency might be a concern. If you crave a safe WR2, look elsewhere. But for fantasy managers seeking a boom-or-bust option with an upside, Ridley could be your guy, especially at his current discounted price.
#Titans WR Calvin Ridley pic.twitter.com/Fqon6eGnJm
— Kayla Anderson ✨ (@KaylaAndersonTV) May 29, 2024
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