Five Dark-Horse MVP Candidates - 2024 NFL Outlook

Dave Ventresca analyzes five dark-horse MVP candidates who could emerge during the 2024 NFL season. How could their team situations allow them to flourish?

The NFL MVP is an extremely prestigious award and one that has an impressive 66-year history. In recent years, however, the award has become synonymous with that season's top-performing quarterback. A quarterback has won the award for 11 straight seasons. The last non-quarterback to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012.

While MVP is undoubtedly a quarterback award, there are always dark-horse contenders who emerge. Could 2024 be the first time a position player wins the award in over a decade? For our exercise today, we will be looking at players with odds of 20-1 or greater at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Make sure you follow RotoBaller on X and check out RotoBaller.com for all your NFL and fantasy football needs. Here are five dark-horse MVP candidates for the 2024 NFL season.

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Justin Herbert - QB, Los Angeles Chargers

BetMGM MVP Odds: +2000

Herbert is coming off a lost season in 2023. He suffered an injury to his throwing hand that ultimately ended his season. As a result, Los Angeles cleaned house following a disappointing 5-12 season.

The Chargers made a splash move this offseason and hired former Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh as their new head coach. Harbaugh has proven himself as a winner at every stop. He has a .720 winning percentage in college and a .695 winning percentage in the NFL.

In the 2011 NFL season, Harbaugh took over a 49ers team that had not been to the playoffs in eight years and immediately took them to the NFC Championship Game. This man knows what he’s doing.

If Harbaugh can engineer another quick turnaround with the Chargers, you can bet Herbert will play a large part in things. He’s one of the game's best quarterbacks, but poor coaching has always held him back from reaching his ceiling.

Things will be very different under Harbaugh and he’s undoubtedly the best coach Herbert has ever had. If Los Angeles somehow dethrones the Chiefs as AFC West champions, that means the talented young signal-caller will be right in the thick of the MVP race.

Fun fact Justin Herbert’s longest career completion is a 72 yard touchdown to Jalen Guyton pic.twitter.com/IuLDQQMLJ0

— ChargersMuse (@ChargersMuse) April 17, 2023

Jared Goff - QB, Detroit Lions

BetMGM MVP Odds: +2500

Goff had a strong 2023 that saw him throw 30 touchdown passes for the first time since 2018. Luckily for Goff, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson turned down an offer to become head coach of the Washington Commanders and returned to Detroit for another season.

The ninth-year quarterback is surrounded by an abundance of talent on offense. Detroit also plays its first seven games inside to start the year. The Lions don’t play their first outdoor game until November and only play three outdoor games all year. Goff’s splits indoors/outdoors are drastic, and he’s undoubtedly been a better quarterback when playing inside the last few years.

Goff has continuity with his play-caller, elite offensive weapons, a very favorable schedule, and a team that should be an NFC contender. The ingredients for a potential MVP season are all here.

Aaron Rodgers - QB, New York Jets

BetMGM MVP Odds: +2500

Rodgers’ debut season with the Jets was cut short after a handful of snaps when he suffered a torn Achilles tendon. He is looking to come back with a vengeance in 2024.

GREAT touchdown catch by Breece Hall on a pass from Aaron Rodgers 🔥🔥#Jets | 🎥 @nyjets pic.twitter.com/CPf48fwWUu

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) August 13, 2024

The Jets have tried their best to improve their offensive line for this year. They’ve also added several new weapons to the offense. It’s worth pointing out that New York’s offensive coordinator is Nathaniel Hackett, with whom Rodgers has a close relationship.

While he’s become a popular punching bag following his disastrous stint as Denver Broncos head coach, Hackett was the offensive coordinator when Rodgers won back-to-back MVPs in 2020 and 2021 with the Green Bay Packers.

Rodgers is a four-time MVP with something to prove in 2024. He has familiarity with the offensive scheme, and it’s a great fit for him. The Jets are expected to be in play for a playoff spot thanks to their all-world defense.

If they emerge in the loaded AFC as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, that means Rodgers has probably returned to MVP form. Until we see the wheels completely fall off, we shouldn’t doubt the future Hall of Famer.

Anthony Richardson - QB, Indianapolis Colts

BetMGM MVP Odds: +3500

A popular fantasy football breakout candidate this year, Richardson enters his second season in the league. He flashed big-time potential in limited action as a rookie.

This touchdown throw by Anthony Richardson was a DART while falling down. 🎯pic.twitter.com/iVpMTJ72Um

— Indy SportsOne (@IndySportsOne) October 1, 2023

With this play, we’re banking on Richardson making the second-year leap we have seen several quarterbacks do over the last handful of years. He's got one of the best play-callers in the league in his ear.

Head coach Shane Steichen did a phenomenal job adjusting on the fly and constructing an offense around Gardner Minshew II’s strengths last year in Richardson’s absence. It will be exciting to see what he can do with a full year of Richardson.

Indianapolis has RotoBaller’s 10th-easiest projected strength of schedule. It’ll have an opportunity to emerge as a surprise contender in the AFC. Richardson just needs to stay on the field. If he does, he is a true dark-horse MVP candidate.

Tyreek Hill - WR, Miami Dolphins

BetMGM MVP Odds: +10000

First off, let’s acknowledge that it’s extremely unlikely that a wide receiver will win this award. A wide receiver has never won MVP in the entire 66-year history of the award. If there is a receiver who could get the job done, it might be Hill.

He's spoken multiple times about becoming the first receiver to crack 2,000 yards in a single season. That would be quite the feat. The Dolphins seemed determined to get Hill there last year. Before his Week 14 ankle injury, Hill was averaging over 123 receiving yards per game. At that pace, he would have eclipsed the 2K mark.

TYREEK HILL 42 YARD TOUCHDOWN 🐆 pic.twitter.com/vzl4RvXz2u

— NFL Fantasy Football (@NFLFantasy) October 29, 2023

If Hill eclipses 2,000 yards and no quarterbacks have a standout season, it would be very interesting to see where Hill would fall in the MVP conversation. We’ve seen a 2,000-yard running back win MVP, maybe a 2K receiver could finally get the job done.

The odds are what they are for a very good reason, but it might be worth the tiniest of sprinkles. Better still, throw a wager on him to win Offensive Player of the Year (+750).

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