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One of the best parts of playing fantasy football is finding potential gems in the later rounds of your draft. Whenever you hear a leaguemate exclaim “Who!?” immediately after your pick, you know you’ve done something right. That is the edge you want over the rest of your league.
Every year, there are sleepers in the draft, especially at the running back position. If you can identify a few, it can propel you to a fantasy football title. Today, we will examine several late-round running backs who could be on the verge of a breakout season. For our exercise, we will focus on players going outside of the top 100 picks in NFFC drafts.
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Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
NFFC ADP: 102.81, RB33
Robinson and free agent addition Austin Ekeler are currently expected to split touches in Washington’s backfield. Despite this, Ekeler is the preferred option among gamers and is going nearly 16 picks earlier than Robinson. This is happening despite Robinson finishing higher than Ekeler in the following metrics:
- Next Gen Stats Rush Yards Over Expected (RYOE)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt (MTF)
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s EXP Run %
- Fantasy Points Data Suite’s Yards After Contact Per Attempt (YACO/ATT).
- Pro Football Focus (PFF) Rushing Grade
- PFF’s Elusive Rating
So, we are drafting a 29-year-old back, coming off the worst year of his career, whose metrics all signal he’s in decline over a 25-year-old back coming off his best season as a professional? What are we doing here?
Ekeler traditionally has been a great pass-catching back, but he wasn’t really better than Robinson in that area either last year.
Ekeler:
- 8.5 yards per reception
- 5.9 yards per target
- 1.40 YPRR
- 1 receiving touchdown
Robinson:
- 10.2 yards per reception
- 8.6 yards per target
- 1.89 YPRR
- 4 receiving touchdowns
No, this does not suggest Robinson is going to morph into an elite pass-catching back. That’s just not his skill set. But it does mean these backs might not be that different as pass-catchers in terms of potential fantasy production.
There is really no good reason to draft Ekeler over Robinson other than name value. Robinson is not a perfect back, but he’s not terrible either. Robinson is Washington’s best option at the moment. He could also see a boost in efficiency playing alongside dual-threat rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels. Fresh off a PPR RB21 finish, Robinson should be considered the preferred pick from this backfield.
Devin Singletary, New York Giants
NFFC ADP: 106.25 Overall, RB34
Singletary enjoyed arguably his best season as a pro in 2023.
DEVIN SINGLETARY TOUCHDOWN pic.twitter.com/QS41BVyCeu
— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) November 19, 2023
He set a career-high in rushing yards and graded out fairly well in a few metrics. Among 49 backs with 90+ carries, he finished a respectable 23rd in RYOE and 19th in PFF Rushing Grade. Singletary isn’t the most talented back out there, but he’s a savvy veteran with good vision and a decisive running style.
His new situation with the Giants is not as good as it was with Houston last year. However, New York has seemingly pegged him as their Saquon Barkley replacement, and Singletary is in line for a starter's workload. He’s a fine option if you take a zero RB approach, as he should return backend RB2 production once again this year.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
NFFC ADP: 109.97 Overall, RB35
Chase Brown’s 2023 season got off to a rocky start. Missing time with a hamstring injury, he only received five touches during the season’s first eleven games. The Bengals coaching staff must have seen something they liked as Brown averaged nearly nine touches and 53 scrimmage yards per game from Weeks 13-18. That would equate to roughly 150 touches and 900 scrimmage yards over a 17-game season. This would be enough to warrant flex consideration in fantasy leagues. His final stats underwhelmed, but Brown displayed big-play ability during the year.
Chase Brown doing Chase Brown things.
📺: #INDvsCIN on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus#Illini // #HTTO // #famILLy pic.twitter.com/xVx1HjAaWy— Illinois Football (@IlliniFootball) December 10, 2023
Head Coach Zac Taylor has hinted at Brown receiving a bigger role this season. While Zack Moss was brought in to be the lead back, he has never handled more than 210 touches in a season nor has he ever been a significant pass-catching threat. Recent reports suggest that Brown is getting more work with the starters. He could be emerging as the lead back.
Either way, there is room for Brown to carve out a role in this offense. In the worst-case scenario, he will provide stand-alone value as a flex option in PPR leagues. In the best-case scenario, Brown overtakes Moss as the RB1 and is a massive value in drafts. However things shake out, he’s a talented player and will be a useful asset.
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings
NFFC ADP: 145.13 Overall, RB46
Chandler got a brief run as Minnesota’s starter to close the 2023 season. Ultimately it did not amount to a ton of production. Chandler only finished as the PPR RB29 in points per game from Weeks 14-18. However, he did flash potential in a Week 15 performance against the Cincinnati Bengals when he ran for 132 rushing yards to go along with a score on the ground.
Ty Chandler finds the endzone! #Skol
📺 Watch Vikings vs Bengals on NFL Game Pass on DAZN
(Via @NFL )
— NFL on DAZN (@NFLonDAZN) December 16, 2023
Veteran running back Aaron Jones was brought in as the team’s new starter this offseason. However, he turns 30 during the season, and the Vikings have made it known they intend to keep Chandler involved in the offense.
While Jones surged late in the regular season and playoffs for Green Bay (Jones closed with five straight games of 100+ yards rushing), he missed six games dealing with a nagging hamstring injury. Jones also saw some of his advanced metrics decline in 2023. His finishes in RYOE, MTF/ATT, and YAC/ATT were all down compared to 2022. These small chinks in the armor suggest Jones could be slowing down.
Chandler was not incredibly efficient during his brief run as a starter last year. However, the Vikings have spoken highly of him all offseason and want him involved. If Jones’ injuries continue or he falls off the running back age cliff, Chandler is primed for a lead role. He's a good bench stash and also offers some potential stand-alone value.
Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver Broncos
NFFC ADP: 163.95 Overall, RB52
McLaughlin flashed big-time upside in limited action as a rookie. PFF graded him as their 16th-highest rusher, and he also finished seventh in PFF’s Elusive Rating. Among backs with 65 attempts, McLaughlin finished fifth in MTF/ATT. There is a lot to like about the second year back heading into 2024.
Jaleel McLaughlin turns the bobble into a touchdown!pic.twitter.com/H6KulTU1aM
— DraftKings (@DraftKings) October 8, 2023
Running backs have always been heavily involved in head coach Sean Payton’s offense. After a disappointing season from Javonte Williams, McLaughlin may command more touches this year. If he can carve out a Reggie Bush/Darren Sproles-type role, he will be a huge asset in PPR leagues.
Much like last offseason, McLaughlin is impressing Denver’s coaching staff with his work ethic.
#Broncos HC Sean Payton on Jaleel McLaughlin:
“He’s here at 5:15, even in the offseason. First one here, running in the weight room, and by the time he’s at breakfast and most people are arriving, he’s put in a good hour and a half’s worth of work. It’s just the way he’s wired,… pic.twitter.com/qMk17cfd6h
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) June 5, 2024
He is the exact type of player who can help you win your league if he hits. Draft him and reap the rewards.
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