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Bust is such a nasty term. It's especially brutal to label a player a bust after just one season in the NFL, as so many different factors can play a role in a young player's success - or failure - early in their professional career.
However, bust is the go-to label that gets slapped on any young player who's drafted high and fails to meet lofty expectations. That's just the way it is in the high-stakes world of the NFL.
On the eve of the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft, we'll take a look back at five 2023 first-rounders who failed to live up to the hype in their rookie campaigns. It should be noted that these players are just scratching the surface of their pro careers and can still turn things around, but in many ways, their rookie seasons left lots to be desired.
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Bryce Young - No. 1 Overall Pick, Carolina Panthers
We want to give Bryce Young the benefit of the doubt, as he just recently finished his rookie season in what's a terrible situation in Carolina. However, things aren't looking great for the diminutive signal-caller who the Panthers traded the farm to draft at No. 1 last year.
Carolina sent stud WR D.J. Moore, two first-round picks, and two second-round picks to Chicago in exchange for the top pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, which they used to select the Heisman Trophy winner out of Alabama. Playing for first-year Panthers head coach Frank Reich (who was ultimately fired after the team's 1-10 start) behind an abysmal offensive line with few weapons at the skill positions, Young struggled mightily. He averaged a paltry 5.3 yards per attempt, which was the lowest in the NFL among regular starters.
In addition to Young's underwhelming play, the QB drafted right behind him - Houston's C.J. Stroud - looked like an honest-to-goodness superstar while leading the Texans to an AFC South title and playoff berth. It all adds up to the Panthers very likely feeling a sense of buyer's remorse with their decision to select Young over Stroud. We won't write him off yet, as we've often seen rookie QBs struggle, but if things don't improve, Young could skyrocket to the top of draft bust lists in the coming years.
“Houston has a better situation,” an executive from another team said. “If you drop Stroud in Carolina, would he have the same success? No way in hell.”
✍️: @jeffphowe https://t.co/MzpmKQ2UmC
— Panthers On Tap (@PanthersOnTap) January 18, 2024
Tyree Wilson - No. 7 Overall Pick, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders selected Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson with the seventh pick of the 2023 NFL Draft in an effort to add a defensive line compliment to Maxx Crosby. Playing in a division with Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, Las Vegas needs effective pass rushers who can put pressure on the quarterback position and take attention away from Crosby. Unfortunately, Wilson rarely looked up to the task during his rookie season.
Raiders' Maxx Crosby Wants to Bring out the Best in Fellow DL Tyree Wilson https://t.co/qDeoGw9ESz via @SInow
— Hondo Carpenter (@HondoCarpenter) April 18, 2024
In fairness to Wilson, he started the season at a disadvantage. A foot injury while at Texas Tech required surgery and forced him to miss the last several games of his college career, the pre-draft process, and a large portion of offseason workouts. The Raiders activated Wilson from the non-football injury list in August, but the rookie looked behind for the vast majority of 2023.
He suited up for 17 games last year but didn't record a sack until Week 7. Wilson ended the year with just 3.5 sacks while sporting a meager pressure rate. The rookie closed 2023 ranked 105th by Pro Football Focus out of 112 graded EDGE rushers. New Raiders head coach Antonio Pierce will look to get more out of him in 2024, as the now-healthy Wilson should be able to get a full offseason worth of work under his belt.
Emmanuel Forbes - No. 16 Overall Pick, Washington Commanders
One of the top-rated cornerbacks in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Washington Commanders snagged Emmanuel Forbes with the 16th overall pick in last year's draft with the hopes of solidifying a leaky secondary. It's fair to say that plan failed miserably, as the Commanders were routinely shredded through the air and finished the season ranked dead last in the NFL in points (30.5) and yards (388.9) allowed per game.
WR1s seeing "Emmanuel Forbes" line up on them pic.twitter.com/FitKArLa9N
— Quez (@QuezIsGodly) April 19, 2024
Individually, Forbes struggled mightily to acclimate to the professional level despite putting together an impressive collegiate resume while at Mississippi State. One of the best ball hawks in school history, he set an FBS record with six interceptions returned for TDs while in Starkville.
Despite that track record of success in the SEC, his rookie campaign was plagued with ineffectiveness and injury. Forbes missed two games in 2023 with an elbow issue and was benched at one point due to his inability to cover or tackle anyone. He finished the season with just one interception and an abysmal PFF Grade of 50.9, a mark that ranked 112th out of 127 graded cornerbacks in 2023. Forbes will look to reboot in 2024 under the eye of new Washington head coach and defensive guru Dan Quinn.
Quentin Johnston - No. 21 Overall Pick, Los Angeles Chargers
Fantasy managers might still get angry just at the mention of Quentin Johnston's name after what was a disastrous rookie season with the Chargers. Many pegged Johnston as a first-round steal when L.A. scooped him up with the 21st overall pick last year. An impressive physical specimen out of TCU who possesses prototypical size and speed, to say the rookie's first NFL season was hugely disappointing would be a vast understatement.
Quentin Johnston with one of the worst drops with the game on the line pic.twitter.com/xO752WkSQa
— Complex Sports (@ComplexSports) November 19, 2023
Despite being put in a dream scenario for production with an elite quarterback in Justin Herbert and a season-ending injury to wideout Mike Williams that all but guaranteed playing time, Johnston struggled in every facet of the game. Poor route-running and drops plagued the 22-year-old throughout the season. His production was nearly nil, as he totaled just 481 yards and two TDs on 38 catches while playing in a pass-heavy Chargers offense.
Per RotoBaller's Andrew Ball, Johnston's average yards per route run output of 0.92 looks eerily similar to recent wide receiver busts such as Jaelon Raegor (1.27) and N'Keal Harry (0.90), while fellow 2023 first-round WRs Jordan Addison (1.56), Zay Flowers (1.51), and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (1.25) all easily eclipsed Johnston in that metric and in traditional statistical output.
With the departure of Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, as well as a retooled offensive scheme under new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh, Johnston will again have every opportunity to succeed in 2024. He'll need to drastically improve in multiple areas in order to do so.
Nolan Smith - No. 30 Overall Pick, Philadelphia Eagles
It's tough to be extremely critical of the Philadelphia Eagles' decisions in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft, as it looks as though they came away with one of the gems of the entire class with the ninth overall pick in defensive tackle Jalen Carter. Many experts thought Philly GM Howie Roseman pulled off a coup when he snagged Carter's Georgia Bulldogs teammate Nolan Smith at the tail-end of the first round with the 30th overall pick.
“The confidence. You can see his confidence growing, knowing that it’s more on him this year…
I think he’s letting the doubts fuel him. I want to get him to where he want to go. Like I told him, take it one day at a time. You can’t worry about what people saying because when… pic.twitter.com/ciGBs0HK7M
— Word On The Birds (@WordOnTheBirds) April 20, 2024
However, Smith's impact paled in comparison to that of Carter, as he struggled to find playing time at an EDGE/LB position where the Eagles were very deep. Smith's paltry rookie output - 18 tackles and a single sack - can largely be attributed to a lack of opportunity. He didn't log more than eight defensive snaps in a game until Week 12 and finished the regular season with just 188 snaps to his credit, well behind incumbent Philly stars Haason Reddick (862 snaps), Josh Sweat (828), and Brandon Graham (395).
With Reddick now a member of the New York Jets and Graham turning 36-years-old earlier this month, Smith should see a noticeable uptick in playing time in 2024 which will give us a better idea of what he's capable of at the NFL level.
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