Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft Analysis for Round One Picks (2024)

The first round of fantasy baseball drafts is always the best part. Whoever fantasy managers select with their first pick is who they will rely on the most for the entire season. No matter where you pick in the first round, though, you will be selecting an elite player.

All fantasy drafts are stressful, and the first round might be the most stressful. However, your first-round pick won't make or break your season. They are the safest selections in the entire draft, hence their first-round average draft position.

So, let's dive in and analyze the first round of fantasy baseball drafts this year based on their average ADP. Who's going in the top 12? Who should fantasy managers pick first overall? These are the best players to pick in the first round in 2024.

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1. Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. is the unanimous top overall player in fantasy baseball drafts this year. Acuna is ranked No. 1 on every platform and is easily the best fantasy baseball player. After the season he had, this should come as no surprise. 

Players to lead MLB in SB & total bases in a season:

2023 Ronald Acuña Jr
1917 Ty Cobb
1914 Benny Kauff
1911 Ty Cobb
1909 Ty Cobb
1908 Honus Wagner

— Sarah Langs (@SlangsOnSports) March 7, 2024

Acuna is the most valuable fantasy asset because of his ability to do it all. Last year, he totaled 217 hits, 149 runs scored, 35 doubles, 41 home runs, 106 RBI, 73 stolen bases, and 80 walks. The 2023 National League MVP is a literal cheat code in fantasy, and there's no way you can pass on him if you have the No. 1 pick.

2. Bobby Witt Jr., Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. has quickly risen up draft boards since he made his debut in 2022. Now, entering his third full season, Witt is easily a top-three pick in fantasy baseball. His numbers won't be as dominant as Acuna's, but he can deliver in several different categories, making him an easy selection at second overall.

Witt upped his numbers across the board from his rookie season, and there's a strong chance his numbers can improve in 2024. Last year, he had 177 hits, 97 runs scored, 38 doubles, 11 triples, 30 HRs, 96 RBI, and 49 stolen bases. Even though he plays on a subpar Royals team, the sky's the limit for the 23-year-old.

3. Julio Rodriguez, Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners outfielder Julio Rodriguez might have gotten off to a poor start in 2023, but his end of the season shows why he's one of the best fantasy players. Rodriguez was hitting just .204 with seven HRs, 21 RBI, eight doubles, and eight stolen bases in the first 44 games of the year. However, if you remove his slow start, Rodriguez hit .302, 25 HRs, 82 RBI, and 29 doubles over the final 111 games.

It's hard not to ignore his slow starts, which have now occurred in both of his MLB seasons. If you can deal with the slow start for the first month, though, it's going to pay off big-time down the stretch. From August 16 to September 16 last year, Rodriguez hit an absurd .424 at the plate with 11 HRs and 28 RBI.

The 23-year-old totaled 180 hits, 37 doubles, 32 HRs, 103 RBI, and 37 stolen bases across 155 games. Rodriguez contributes strong numbers in several areas, which is why his ADP of 1.03 is an easy smash.

4. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers

Entering the 2023 season, Los Angeles Dodgers star Mookie Betts was one of the safest first-round picks. Then, Betts put together his best campaign in a Dodgers uniform. He had 179 hits, 126 runs scored, 40 doubles, 39 HRs, 107 RBI, and 14 stolen bases while hitting .307 at the plate.

Betts was a player who had an extremely high floor, but maybe not the highest ceiling. That has changed, though, after his strong 2023 season. The 31-year-old will be hitting at the top of a Dodgers lineup that also features Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. While that won't do much for his RBI, home run, or doubles numbers, it could help him surpass his 126 runs scored last year.

Mookie Betts' move to shortstop ahead of tonight's #SpringTraining game is "permanent, for now," according to Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. pic.twitter.com/eGDWXk3ewj

— MLB (@MLB) March 8, 2024

Picking Betts at four is an easy choice for any fantasy manager who holds this spot. His stolen bases are not as high compared to the others going in Round 1, but he makes up for it in other ways. He will hit over 35 HRs, drive in at least 100 runs, and score over 125 runs.

5. Corbin Carroll, Arizona Diamondbacks

If you rostered Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Corbin Carroll last year, you know how fun it is to have him on your team. In his first full season in the majors, he had 116 runs scored, 161 hits, 30 doubles, 10 triples, 25 HRs, 76 RBI, and 54 stolen bases. Now, in his second full season, Carroll could post even better numbers in 2024.

Carroll is one of the best up-and-coming stars in the league, and he can contribute solid stats in every fantasy category. He posted elite stolen base, double, and triple numbers in 2023 while still hitting over 25 HRs and driving in over 75 runs. The Diamondbacks' outfield has a high ceiling on a great offense.

6. Kyle Tucker, Houston Astros

Houston Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker might be the most underrated star in the game, but all he does is produce. He has made back-to-back All-Star appearances and has become an elite fantasy baseball option. Tucker's doubles, triples, home runs, RBI, and stolen base numbers are the reason he is a great pick at 1.06.

Last season, Tucker had 163 hits, 37 doubles, five triples, 29 HRs, 112 RBI, 30 stolen bases, and 80 walks. Those numbers aren't anything new for the left-handed slugger, who has totaled at least 29 HRs, 140 hits, and 90 RBI in three straight seasons. He also hits atop one of the best lineups in baseball. That gives him a high floor and ceiling in fantasy in 2024.

7. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman might be one of the most consistent hitters in the first round -- outside of Acuna. Freeman has finished top-four in NL MVP voting in two straight years while posting above-average numbers across the board.

The slugging first baseman had 211 hits, 131 runs scored, 59 doubles, 29 HRs, 102 RBI, and 23 stolen bases in 2023. He also hit .331 at the plate to go with a .410 on-base percentage and a .567 slugging percentage. Of all the players selected in the first round, Freeman is one of the safer options. He'll hit 50-plus doubles while totaling over 27 HRs, 100 RBI, and 130 runs scored. With Ohtani now in Los Angeles, the 34-year-old veteran could see his numbers improve, too.

8. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge likely wants to forget about the 2023 season after playing just 106 games. Judge dealt with a toe injury, which didn't help his year-long numbers. Still, he had 37 HRs, 75 RBI, 88 walks, and 16 doubles.

There should be no concerns about his toe injury heading into 2024, making him a great pick at this spot in the draft. The last time we saw Judge in a full season was in 2022. That season saw the right-handed slugger hit 62 HRs, 131 RBI, and 28 doubles. Now, the former AL MVP will be hitting behind Juan Soto, which could lead to more RBI chances in 2024.

9. Fernando Tatis Jr., San Diego Padres

It was hard to fully evaluate outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr. last year. When he made his season debut on April 20, it was his first game action in 564 days. So, of course, there was going to be plenty of ups and downs. However, he showed he can still hit at an elite level.

Fernando Tatis with a BOMB off Luis Castillo pic.twitter.com/07TDpAuata

— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) March 3, 2024

Tatis didn't post as strong of numbers as he did in his last full season in 2021, but he was consistent for the most part. He had 148 hits, 91 runs scored, 33 doubles, 25 HRs, 78 RBI, and 29 stolen bases. That was a nice floor campaign for the Gold Glove outfielder. Nevertheless, many expect the 25-year-old to post better numbers this year -- similar to what he did earlier in his career.

In 2021, Tatis had 42 HRs, 97 RBI, 31 doubles, and 25 stolen bases in his last season before his injury/suspension. The potential is there for the outfielder to reach those numbers once again.

10. Juan Soto, New York Yankees

Juan Soto and Tatis are going nearly back-to-back in most drafts, but Soto might be the safer pick. The left-handed slugger is guaranteed to hit over 30 HRs, 30 doubles, drive in 100 runs, and walk over 130 times. On top of that, he'll now be hitting in front of Judge, which should lead to more runs scored in 2024.

Soto is coming off one of his strongest seasons as a pro, totaling 156 hits, 32 doubles, 35 HRs, 109 RBI, and 132 walks across 162 games. There's also a strong chance he surpasses those home run and RBI numbers playing at Yankee Stadium for 81 games. With a short porch in right field, the left-handed slugger should be in for a monster season. He has a safe floor and a high ceiling at the back end of Round 1.

11. Spencer Strider, Atlanta Braves

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider should be the top pitcher off the board in drafts this year. His ADP is set around the 11th pick, but I've seen him go in the top eight in some drafts. Either way, though, he's the most valuable pitcher due to his high strikeout numbers.

Strider struck out 281 batters in 2023 and finished the year with a 13.5 strikeout per nine innings. The right-hander delivered nine strikeouts or more in 22 of his 32 starts in 2023, including double-digit strikeouts in 11 contests. His 3.86 ERA and 146 hits allowed are also solid enough for a pitcher who will total over 250 strikeouts. He's a strong pick at this spot. 

Spencer Strider, Fastball/Slider, Overlay. pic.twitter.com/xQx1MQwFG1

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2024

12. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani will round out the first round in most drafts. Ohtani might be going with the last pick in Round 1, but he might be the best value pick. He has hit at least 44 HRs in two of his last three seasons while totaling at least six triples, 25 doubles, 95 RBI, and 90 runs scored in three straight campaigns. 

Ohtani posted those elite numbers on an Angels team that lacked plenty of star power. Mike Trout only played in 237 of 486 games during those last three years, and Anthony Rendon played in 148 total contests. The Japanese native was really on his own and still drove in 95 runs last year with 44 HRs, 26 doubles, 102 runs scored, and 20 stolen bases.

Expect the home run numbers and doubles to stay around the same. However, there's a chance we could see him total over 115 RBI in the heart of the Dodgers lineup.

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