X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

First Basemen Set to Break Out in 2021

First base is typically one of the biggest sources of power in a fantasy lineup. First basemen hit more home runs than any other position in 2020, with their combined total of 342 homers accounting for nearly 15 percent of MLB's total.

Power comes aplenty at first base, which often means managers will look to wait on drafting a first baseman after the elite guys are off the board. For those who wait, it's important to figure out who to target that will provide the most bang for their buck this season. Depending on the format, in some leagues managers may want to target these guys for their first base slot, while others will look at them as solid corner infield options. Regardless of where they figure into your lineup, these four guys are set to break out in 2021 — and the numbers back that up.

These four guys are all going to be available late in drafts, with some not even being drafted in shallower leagues. But smart fantasy managers should try to target these guys and reap the value of these bargain-bin stars.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Jeimer Candelario, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 259

2020 stats: 52 G, .297/.369/.503, 7 HR, 23.8 K%

One could argue that Candelario already had a breakout season in 2020. He posted career-highs in average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, while also posting his best wOBA (.373) and wRC+ (136) since joining Detroit. His walk rate did drop down to the second-lowest mark of his career (9.7 percent), but he also saw his strikeout rate drop to 23.8 percent — his lowest rate since 2017. Candelario did get somewhat lucky at the plate last year, as his .372 BABIP was both a career-high and nearly 80 points higher than his career average. But even taking into account that "luckiness", his .275 xBA, .466 xSLG and .353 xwOBA suggest that his 2020 numbers were mostly legitimate.

Now, here's why you should target Candelario in drafts. While his launch angle dropped from 15.8 degrees in 2019 to 13.3 degrees in 2020, he was making much better contact at the plate with career-highs in barrel percentage (10.3%), sweet-spot percentage (37.5%) and hard-hit percentage (47.1%), while his 90.2 mph average exit velocity was his highest mark since his debut season in 2016. That may partially reflect a more aggressive stance at the plate, as he swung at the first pitch at a career-high 29.6 percent rate.

So with all those numbers out there, I pose to you this question: Would you rather draft Candelario at pick 258, or a player who had a lower average (.262), OPS (.800), launch angle (11.1 degrees), sweet-spot percentage (37.2%) and hard-hit rate (35%), and has a 138 ADP? If you chose Candelario, you would be passing on drafting reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis.

Yes, I know there are some flaws in that comparison, but my point is that Candelario is poised to have a big year in 2021, and he is being drafted quite a bit later in drafts than where he should be going.

 

Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox

ADP 290

2020 stats: 23 G, .263/.359/.600, 8 HR, 42.4 K%

Dalbec is already off to a hot start in 2021, as he has had the best spring so far of everyone on this list with a slash line of .333/.419/.926 with five home runs and 12 RBI in 12 games. He's picking up where he left off last year, where he was one of six rookies to hit eight or more home runs. However, unlike the other five guys, Dalbec was the only one to do so in fewer than 25 games. And this is what fantasy managers have been waiting to see from Dalbec, who averaged 20 home runs per year across his four seasons in the minors — including 32 homers between High-A and Double-A in 2018. But while the power looked great, some of his other numbers took a dive in 2020. His 42.4 percent strikeout rate and 21.2 percent swinging-strike rate were his worst marks at any level, and it appears he had some luck at the plate with a .394 BABIP — his highest mark since 2016 — while also posting a .197 xBA.

One fact that cannot be disputed though is that when Dalbec made contact in 2020, he was making solid contact at a high rate. Among batters with at least 90 plate appearances last year, Dalbec's 22 percent barrel rate was the second-highest mark in the majors behind Miguel Sano's 22.9 percent rate. And even with his top-tier power and quality contact, Dalbec is being left undrafted in most leagues with his 290 ADP. That places him behind guys like Rowdy Tellez (283), Carlos Santana (278) and Ryan McMahon (234). Yes, the average looks like a concern for Dalbec this year — which likely partly explains the lower ADP — but his .529 xSLG shows that the power is mostly legitimate. And even with concerns over the average, that power potential plus hitting in a pretty solid-looking Red Sox lineup makes him a great corner-infield option at the tail end of drafts. Mark my words, Dalbec will hit the most home runs in 2021 out of anyone in this column.

 

Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants

ADP: 425

2020 stats: 51 G, .309/.425/.591, 9 HR, 20.1 K%

OK, so when I first made my picks for the four guys on this list, I really liked Belt's potential this year even as he was coming off surgery to remove a bone spur in his heel. And then right around the time I started writing this article was when the news came out that Belt not only had a bout with COVID-19 this offseason, but also mononucleosis. So it's possible that all that could end up having a negative impact on Belt this year, but for the sake of this analysis I will assume no lingering after-effects from his illnesses.

Alright, disclaimer out of the way, I think Belt is going to finally break out this year. I feel like that's a phrase that has been repeated numerous times throughout Belt's career, but his 2020 campaign looks like the stepping stone to a breakout 2021 performance. He posted career-highs in all of his triple-slash line categories, while his 20.1 percent strikeout rate and 16.8 percent walk rate were also career-bests. That walk rate was good enough to rank him eighth in the majors among batters with at least 170 plate appearances, while his on-base percentage was fourth-highest behind only Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman and Marcell Ozuna.

Now, much like with Dalbec and Candelario, Belt was a little bit lucky at the plate, but at a much lesser extent than the others. His BABIP was a career-high .356, but it was only 23 points higher than his career average, and his .287 xBA and .597 xSLG suggest that his numbers were very close to being what they should have been.

And speaking of Statcast metrics, Belt's 2020 campaign saw him post some of his best numbers in the Statcast era, as his 16.8 percent barrel rate (ninth-best in the majors), 90.7 mph average exit velocity, 46.9 percent hard-hit rate and 19.4 percent chase rate were all career-highs. Long story short, Belt looked like a completely different hitter last year. Dalbec may have the highest power potential out of the guys on this list, but Belt has the best overall fantasy potential of this group.

You want a bold prediction? Here's one: Brandon Belt will be a top-15 fantasy first baseman in 2021. You heard it here first.

 

Evan White, Seattle Mariners

ADP 458

2020 stats: 54 G, .176/.252/.346, 8 HR, 26 RBI, 41.6 K%

Making his big league debut last season, White didn't make much noise with a .176 average and .598 OPS over 54 games. His 41.6 percent strikeout rate and 15.6 percent swinging-strike rate were his worst marks of any season in his professional career, as his 84 strikeouts were the third-most in the majors. Despite those struggles, White still managed to finish third on the team in home runs and RBI, and his 8.9 percent walk rate was his best mark since 2018. Obviously, the strikeouts are a big value killer, but according to his underlying numbers, if he can be a little more patient at the plate this year he'll be a solid asset in fantasy.

First and foremost, White appears to have been somewhat unlucky at the plate last year. Granted his .189 xBA and .384 xSLG don't suggest a lot of room for improvement, but it is worth noting that his .264 BABIP was 85 points lower than his career .349 BABIP over three years in the minors. On top of that, there were few first basemen last season that were making harder contact than White, who finished top five among qualified first basemen in barrel percentage (14.1%) and hard-hit rate (52.5%), while his 91.7 mph average exit velocity and his 13.7 degree launch angle had him ranked seventh and 16th respectively. Now I'm not saying he will have an MVP caliber season in 2021, but I'll leave this comparison for you to consider in regards to White's potential this year:

Exit Velocity Launch Angle Barrel% Hard-Hit%
Evan White 91.7 13.7 14.1 52.5
Jose Abreu 92.9 10.9 14.3 53.3

Again, don't expect White to get any MVP votes. But if White can cut down on the strikeouts, and if his performance corrects itself for 2020's "unluckiness" he can be a 25-homer threat. And at ADP 435, that makes him a very solid value pick.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Player Comparisons
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Rodgers2 hours ago

Could Be Placed On IR Or Benched
Jordan Eberle5 hours ago

To Miss At Least Three Months
Matthew Knies6 hours ago

Placed On Injured Reserve
Owen Power6 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Friday
John Gibson6 hours ago

Busy In Overtime Loss
Connor Hellebuyck6 hours ago

Sharp in Friday's Victory
Kyle Connor6 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Friday's Victory
Noah Fant14 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Update Coming On Saturday
Brock Purdy16 hours ago

Week 13 Status Uncertain
16 hours ago

Nationals Non-Tender Kyle Finnegan On Friday
16 hours ago

Rays Non-Tender Dylan Carlson
17 hours ago

Rockies Non-Tender Brendan Rodgers, Cal Quantrill
Mike Yastrzemski17 hours ago

Avoids Arbitration With Giants
17 hours ago

Blue Jays Non-Tender Closer Jordan Romano
Dustin May17 hours ago

Dodgers Sign Dustin May To One-Year Deal To Avoid Arbitration
Walker Kessler17 hours ago

Might Return To Action Saturday
Kyle Filipowski17 hours ago

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jordan Clarkson17 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Miles McBride17 hours ago

Questionable To Face Jazz
Joel Embiid17 hours ago

To Remain Out On Sunday
Nikola Jokic18 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope18 hours ago

No Longer On Injury Report
Wendell Carter Jr.18 hours ago

Considered Questionable For Saturday
Brady Singer18 hours ago

Shipped To Cincinnati
Jonathan India18 hours ago

Traded To Kansas City
Tre Mann18 hours ago

Listed As Out For Saturday
Torrey Craig18 hours ago

Available Versus Hawks
Nick Richards18 hours ago

Ruled Out For Saturday
Jarace Walker18 hours ago

Ready To Face Bucks
Ben Sheppard19 hours ago

Misses A Third Consecutive Game
Anfernee Simons19 hours ago

Returns To Action Friday
Ja Morant19 hours ago

Considered Doubtful For Saturday
Jerami Grant19 hours ago

Ready For Action Friday
Marcus Smart19 hours ago

Questionable For Saturday
Deandre Ayton19 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Yves Missi19 hours ago

Will Not Play On Friday
Stephen Curry19 hours ago

Available Versus Pelicans
Scoot Henderson19 hours ago

Absent On Friday
Rashod Bateman20 hours ago

Added To Week 12 Injury Report
Vince Dunn20 hours ago

Could Be An Option For Kraken Next Week
TOR20 hours ago

Alexander Nylander Joins Maple Leafs On One-Year Deal
George Kittle20 hours ago

Cleared For Week 12
Jason Dickinson20 hours ago

Expected To Play On Saturday
Cam York21 hours ago

Expected To Return Saturday
San Francisco 49ers21 hours ago

Nick Bosa Won't Play Against Packers
Mason McTavish21 hours ago

Remains Out On Friday
Brock Purdy21 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Tage Thompson21 hours ago

Continues To Sit On Friday
Kevin Hayes21 hours ago

A Game-Time Call Friday
Kris Letang21 hours ago

Might Return On Friday
Ladd McConkey21 hours ago

Returns To Practice On Friday
CeeDee Lamb21 hours ago

Cleared To Play In Week 12
Sam LaPorta22 hours ago

Off The Injury Report, Cleared For Week 12
Jake Ferguson22 hours ago

Ruled Out With Concussion
DeVonta Smith22 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 12
Brock Purdy22 hours ago

Not Seen At Friday's Practice
T.J. Hockenson23 hours ago

Expects To Be More Involved In Week 12
Alexander Mattison23 hours ago

Zamir White Doubtful To Face Broncos
Nico Collins23 hours ago

Set For Increased Workload Against Titans
Mike Evans23 hours ago

Officially Listed As Questionable
Malik Nabers23 hours ago

Questionable For Week 12, Intends To Play
Sam Darnold23 hours ago

Cleared For Sunday
D'Andre Swift23 hours ago

Gets Questionable Tag For Week 12
Keenan Allen24 hours ago

Lands On Injury Report, Questionable For Week 12
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

In Early Stages Of Recovery From Shoulder Surgery
Tabatha Ricci1 day ago

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Yan Xiaonan1 day ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Muslim Salikhov1 day ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Chris Sale1 day ago

To Have Normal Offseason
Garrett Crochet1 day ago

Drawing Plenty Of Interest
Song Kenan1 day ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Zhang Mingyang1 day ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Ozzy Diaz1 day ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
MacKenzie Weegar1 day ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini1 day ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov1 day ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan1 day ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski1 day ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes1 day ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo1 day ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Carlos Ulberg2 days ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir2 days ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes2 days ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA2 days ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo2 days ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan2 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Shohei Ohtani2 days ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge2 days ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Cody Bellinger2 days ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
2 days ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chris Sale3 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal3 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat3 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English3 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin3 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg3 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim3 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy3 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole3 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
4 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers4 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
4 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri4 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
Charles Oliveira5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler5 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva5 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo5 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy5 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
DK Metcalf - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS and Betting Picks

Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 12 - DK Metcalf, Courtland Sutton, Jauan Jennings, Noah Brown, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Week 12 is here, and with it, another edition of WR Matchups to Target. Last week was one of our most successful of the season, with two home run DFS picks (3x multiplier on DraftKings salary) in Jauan Jennings and Marquez Valdes-Scantling to go along with two additional hits (2x multiplier). Week 12 brings a […]


Matthew Stafford - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Landmines to Avoid for Week 12 - Matthew Stafford, D'Andre Swift, Mark Andrews, and more

Week 12 in the fantasy football season is a critical juncture. With six teams on bye, options are slim, and managers must make savvy lineup decisions as the playoffs loom.  One misstep—a "landmine" starter who underperforms—could cost you a victory and potentially a playoff berth. This week, we spotlight five players who may look tempting […]


Devaughn Vele - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

High-Upside Bench Stashes: Weekend Waiver Wire Adds for Week 12 Includes Blake Corum, Trey Benson, Keaton Mitchell, Jaylen Wright, Devaughn Vele, Theo Johnson, and more

Mastering the waiver wire is a crucial skill that can lead you to a fantasy football championship. It's not just about strategically placing your FAAB budget on specific players but also about knowing when to stash players. This dual strategy keeps you engaged and focused on your ultimate goal of winning a fantasy championship. As […]


Bucky Irving - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Week 12 Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Include Bucky Irving, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DeVaughn Vele And More

Scott Engel’s Lineup Spotlights on RotoBaller.com feature key players to consider starting every week during the 2024 fantasy football season. “The King” highlights preferred starting options when you are dealing with challenging lineup decisions. The players included in this rundown are based on Scott’s Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available in the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter the […]


Kareem Hunt - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

2024 Fantasy Football Rankings (Weekly Rankings)

Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.


Tampa Bay Bucs Defense D/ST Streamers, Rankings, Waiver Wire - Vita Vea Fantasy Football IDP

Week 12 Team Defense Rankings for Fantasy Football: D/ST Updates for Buccaneers D/ST, Chiefs D/ST, Commanders D/ST, Vikings D/ST, Lions D/ST

If you've struggled to get strong production out of your D/ST and need a few wins to qualify for the fantasy football playoffs, you have come to the right place. Our NFL team's Week 12 fantasy football defense (D/ST) rankings are here to guide you in setting the best optimal lineup. The Broncos, Chiefs, and Vikings […]


C.J. Stroud - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Superflex 2QB Rankings for Fantasy Football: Updates for C.J. Stroud, Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Baker Mayfield

With bye weeks and injuries being major factors this week, Superflex fantasy managers will need to dive deeper into the rankings to find the top available options. Our Week 12 fantasy football Superflex rankings (2QB) for 2024 are here to help you navigate close start-or-sit calls and take home a "W" in an important week […]


Courtland Sutton - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Week 12 PPR Rankings for Fantasy Football: Overall Updates Include Courtland Sutton, Rome Odunze, DJ Moore, Austin Ekeler, Tony Pollard, DeAndre Hopkins

Welcome back to another weekend edition of RotoBaller's overall fantasy football rankings. It's a must-win week for many fantasy managers, so it's time to lock in. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football PPR rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players like Deebo Samuel Sr., Jameson Williams, Austin Ekeler, Jaylen […]


Rico Dowdle - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 FLEX Rankings for Fantasy Football (RB, WR, TE) - Updates Include Jameson Williams, Jayden Reed, Jakobi Meyers, Rico Dowdle, Christian Watson

The 12th slate of the NFL season featured many players out of action via bye week or injury. That said, fantasy managers will need to dig deep into this week's rankings to find the top available FLEX consideration. We're here to help with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football FLEX rankings for 2024. […]


Chuba Hubbard - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Week 12 Running Back Rankings for Fantasy Football: RB Updates Include Bucky Irving, Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, J.K. Dobbins, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Somehow, we're already onto the 12th week of the fantasy football season. Needless to say, time is running out to stack wins together, so let's get to crucial start-or-sit decisions with help from our updated Week 12 fantasy football running back rankings for 2024. Let's see where key players such as Jonathon Brooks, Chuba Hubbard, […]


Jauan Jennings - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Week 12 Wide Receiver Rankings for Fantasy Football: WR Updates Include Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jauan Jennings, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell

The wide receiver position is volitile, and WRs that aren't clear must-start studs are largley matchup dependent. If you need help with your start-or-sit calls ahead of the important Week 12 slate, we're here to assist with our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football wide receiver rankings for 2024. Let's dig into the rankings […]


Anthony Richardson - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL News

Week 12 Quarterback Rankings for Fantasy Football: QB Updates Include Anthony Richardson, Bo Nix, Tua Tagovailoa, Geno Smith, Sam Darnold, Jared Goff

Early in the 2024 NFL season, quarterbacks struggled in fantasy football due to a regression in passing productions. However, many are picking up steam in the second half of the year. Still, start-or-sit decisions remain difficult when comparing two similar QBs. We're here to help with our updated Week 12 fantasy football quarterback rankings for […]


Will Dissly - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, NFL Injury News

Week 12 Tight End Rankings for Fantasy Football: TE Updates Include Will Dissly, Cade Otton, Zach Ertz, Jonnu Smith, Sam LaPorta, TJ Hockenson, Cole Kmet

It's make-or-break time for many fantasy managers, as the fantasy football playoffs are quickly approaching. Tight ends are always the toughest offensive position to navigate, so if you need help setting optimal lineups, you can come to the right place. Below, you'll see our NFL team's updated Week 12 fantasy football tight end rankings for […]