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The NASCAR Cup Series is in Michigan this weekend for the Firekeepers Casino 400. Last year, Chris Buescher led 52 laps and won this race while Martin Truex Jr. finished in second place.
Last weekend, Austin Dillon seemingly stole a playoff bid on the final lap of the Cook Out 400, wrecking Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin to take the win. It took a few days, but NASCAR rightly rescinded the playoff berth because...well, he purposefully wrecked two drivers in one corner.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the FireKeepers Casino 400 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 8/18/2024 at 2:34 p.m. EDT. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on X at @juscarts.
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Denny Hamlin
Starts First - DK: $10.5K, FD: $13.5K
Denny Hamlin would be the favorite here even if he wasn't starting on the pole, but his opportunity to lead laps early on just ups his fantasy ceiling even more.
Mother Nature decided there would be no #NASCAR Cup Series qualifying Saturday at Michigan, and as a result @DennyHamlin will lead the field to green by way of the NASCAR Performance Metric Formula: https://t.co/CxkJi0UrwQ
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) August 17, 2024
Hamlin hasn't won here since 2011, but he's come close lately, posting four consecutive top-fives here and leading laps in each of those races. He was third here last season.
Add in that Hamlin is on a hot streak right now. He's had a little bad luck at times, but he's led double-digit laps in five of the past six races, including leading 124 of them at Richmond last week before he was wrecked by Austin Dillon on the final lap.
Martin Truex Jr.
Starts 24th - DK: $10.0K, FD: $11.0K
Qualifying was canceled, so the lineup this weekend is set by the metric. That negatively impacted Martin Truex Jr., who should have a solid car but will begin the race mired back in 24th. That's what happens when you've finished outside the top 25 in three of the past four races.
In his final full-time season, Truex is still in search of a potential final career victory. He's also looking for his first win at Michigan, which he's come close to plenty over the last few years. His second-place finish here last year was his seventh top-10 in a row at the track, with five of those being finishes of fourth or better.
Truex is a really strong place differential option this weekend.
Tyler Reddick
Starts Second - DK: $9.6K, FD: $12.5K
While Hamlin is the favorite to win this race, Tyler Reddick is definitely in that conversation as well. The 23XI Racing driver is coming off a third-place finish at Richmond last weekend, his fifth finish in a row of sixth or better. He's already won once this season and has a chance to add to that tally.
When Tyler Reddick was 15 years old, his family built his dirt late models in a shop owned by Scott Bloomquist, who became a mentor for Reddick. Bloomquist died Friday morning in a plane crash. Reddick said it has been a tough time but he is thankful to see all the tributes. pic.twitter.com/77IkEpFZNh
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) August 17, 2024
One concern: Reddick has really struggled here. In the last three Michigan races, Reddick's best finish is 29th. He did lead seven laps here last year, but he just hasn't been able to put races together. However, he's shown speed on larger tracks this year, including his second-place finish in the Brickyard 400.
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Great day today thanks for some extra help from @RotoBaller @FanRacingOnline @JoeNicely pic.twitter.com/mAIMTaEYWc
— brent buckner (@tenndolly2) August 7, 2023
Austin Cindric
Starts 23rd - DK: $7.0K, FD: $6.5K
At Indianapolis, Austin Cindric started 38th but finished all the way up in seventh. Michigan isn't Indianapolis, but it's another longer oval track. Cindric has been strong on those kinds of tracks all year, posting top-20s at Pocono and Nashville and top-10s at Atlanta and the aforementioned Brickyard 400. He's likely to go under the radar this weekend and is a nice pivot off some more highly-rostered drivers.
Noah Gragson
Starts 25th - DK: $6.8K, FD: $6.2K
Noah Gragson is another driver who delivered a strong result at the Brickyard, bringing his No. 10 Stewart-Haas Racing machine home in ninth. Overall, he enters this race with top-20s in four of the past five races.
Gragson also has a strong track record at Michigan in lower series races. Including yesterday's sixth here in the Xfinity Series, Gragson has six top-10s in six non-Cup starts at the two-mile oval. His lone Cup start in 2022 saw him qualify 12th, but he crashed out of the race on Lap 109.
John Hunter Nemechek
Starts 33rd - DK: $5.5K, FD: $3.2K
This is one of those dirt-cheap plays that carries a ton of risk, but it's a risk that I think could pay off. This No. 42 Legacy Motor Club car is on a really rough streak right now, posting five consecutive finishes of 28th or worse. Things just aren't clicking.
What a season at @JoeGibbsRacing 👏
We led a bunch of laps, snagged two wins, and had some awesome runs. Thank you to all our sponsors, especially @PyeBarkerFire and @ToyotaRacing
Loved being able to work with my 20 guys for another year and help them chase the owners… pic.twitter.com/RNHo8Lw90O— John Hunter Nemechek (@JHNemechek) August 17, 2024
However, Michigan is a good track for JHN, and he starts this race way back in 33rd, so there's definitely place differential upside if he can keep the car clean. He was third in Saturday's Xfinity Series race here and won the 2023 race in that series at Michigan. I don't expect much, but if Nemechek can get up to 23rd or so, then the place differential makes him worth it.
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