X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

FIP/xFIP: Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball

Rick Lucks breaks down how to use FIP and xFIP to identify pitching sleepers and busts as his series on making sabermetrics more accessible for fantasy baseball managers continues.

While we've only examined how to evaluate hitters using advanced stats thus far, sabermetrics are at least as useful for pitchers. The first advanced pitching stat most fantasy owners encounter is FIP. FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching and attempts to measure a pitcher's actual skill instead of the effects of luck or his supporting cast. According to the DIPS theory, pitchers control only Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. Therefore, Ks, walks, and dingers are the only inputs used to determine the number.

Sometimes xFIP is cited instead of FIP. The "x" stands for expected, and the stat is rooted in the fact that HR/FB varies for pitchers just as much as hitters. While FIP uses a player's actual homers allowed, xFIP charges him with a league-average amount of homers based on his fly balls allowed. Some pitchers are consistently more or less homer-prone than average, but studies show xFIP is a more reliable predictor of future ERA than regular FIP.

For fantasy purposes, it is sufficient to understand the three primary inputs listed above and the fact that both stats are on the ERA scale. That means that if a FIP or xFIP would be a good ERA, it is a strong number. The math is perfect, meaning that the league average FIP, xFIP, and ERA are identical (4.27 last year). Both FIP and xFIP are displayed on the right-hand side of the first table for pitcher pages on FanGraphs, so it is very accessible.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

How to Use FIP and xFIP

This predictive nature of FIP and xFIP is the reason fantasy managers should care about them. Both metrics predict future ERA more reliably than ERA itself, making them a good go-to stat to determine if an early breakout may be for real or if a struggling superstar is likely to rebound. All things being equal, it is generally expected that a pitcher's ERA will regress towards his current FIP and xFIP over the long season or across seasons.

For example, Marcus Stroman enjoyed a career year in 2021 with a 3.02 ERA. Unfortunately, both his 3.49 FIP and 3.57 xFIP were in line with his career norms, suggesting that he didn't find a new level. Instead, his better ERA was the result of some combination of luck and his supporting cast, meaning that the fantasy community shouldn't draft him in 2022 expecting a repeat of his 2021 success.

Certain types of pitchers may consistently defy FIP. The first is knuckleball guys, who have challenged DIPS theory since its introduction. Sadly, nobody really threw a knuckleball in 2021, nor are any knucklers expected to make a fantasy impact in 2022.

The other type is simply called a "FIP-beater" that manages to control the quality of contact against him to the point that he outperforms his peripheral stats. Johnny Cueto has been a poster boy for this group for a while. He posted a sterling 2.25 ERA in 2014 before following it up with a solid 3.44 mark the next year. The 2016 season saw Cueto return to ace status with an ERA of 2.79.

Sabermetricians never saw Cueto that highly, however. His 3.30 FIP and 3.21 xFIP in 2014 made that campaign's 2.25 ERA look like a fluke, while his regression in 2015 (3.44 ERA, but 3.53 FIP and 3.78 xFIP) seemed like a harbinger of things to come. His sterling ERA in 2016 (2.79 ERA) was again undermined by considerably larger FIP (2.96) and xFIP (3.42) marks. Many analysts projected his demise in each of these years only to be proven wrong.

In 2017, they were proven correct. Cueto struggled to a 4.52 ERA, with a FIP (4.49) and xFIP (4.45) to match. His ERA rebounded to 3.23 in 2018 in an injury-shortened campaign (53 IP), but his underlying metrics (4.37 FIP, 4.67 xFIP) suggested that he was actually as bad as the previous year. Injuries limited him to 16 ineffective innings in 2019, and he struggled throughout 2020 (5.40 ERA, 4.64 FIP, 4.78 xFIP over 63 1/3 IP). Cueto posted solid numbers last season with a 4.08 ERA, 4.05 FIP, and 4.27 xFIP in 114 2/3 IP, but he was no one's idea of an ace.

Pitchers like this rarely make good fantasy investments. Strikeouts are a key component of FIP, so pitchers who defy it are often lacking in a common fantasy category. Why risk a poor ERA for a two-category upside? There is an ongoing debate in the sabermetric community though, so this author's word is not gospel on the subject.

 

What is SIERA?

SIERA stands for Skill-Interactive ERA and attempts to measure a pitcher's true talent more accurately than FIP and xFIP. It is marginally more accurate than xFIP, but its increased complexity may not be worth it. The stat assumes that ground ball pitchers will have a lower BABIP on grounders than other pitchers, while fly ball pitchers will have lower HR/FB marks. It is also adjusted for the overall run-scoring environment and a pitcher's home park.

That may sound good, but remember that those adjustments won't affect your fantasy team's bottom line. Daniel Bard posted a bad 5.21 ERA for the Rockies last year, but his SIERA was only 4.00 in part to correct for Coors Field. Obviously, pitching at Coors will not improve your ERA, so you can't count on Bard regressing to his SIERA the same way you can with xFIP. SIERA is also not on the ERA scale, with a league average of 4.18 to the 4.27 of the other metrics last season.

 

Conclusion

To conclude, FIP and xFIP are metrics that try to determine the ERA a given pitcher deserves based only on the outcomes he actually controls: Ks, BBs, and home runs allowed. While FIP uses the pitcher's actual homers allowed, xFIP regresses it to the league average figure. Both metrics are on the ERA scale and may be used to predict future ERA with more accuracy than ERA alone.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Sabermetrics & Statcast for Fantasy Baseball




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Félix Bautista

Felix Bautista Picks Up Fourth Save On Monday
Ryan O'Hearn

Homers On Monday
Hunter Goodman

Homers On Monday
Bryce Elder

Picks Up First Win Of The Season On Monday
Jesse Winker

Scores Four Runs On Monday
Michael Harris II

Doubles, Steals A Base On Monday
Jeff McNeil

Hits Three-Run HR On Monday
Ryan Jeffers

Homers, Drives In Three On Monday
Dane Myers

Hits Grand Slam On Monday
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Moises Ballesteros

Now The Triple-A Batting Average Leader
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Raisel Iglesias

Notches Fifth Save Monday
JP Sears

Fans Seven In Monday's Win
Josh Hader

Earns Eighth Save Of Season Monday
Jose Altuve

Hits Two-Run Homer Monday
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Charlie Condon

Visiting A Hand Specialist On Monday
Bailey Ober

Extends Quality-Start Stretch To Four In Monday's Win
Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston Needs To Earn His Spot In Training Camp
Noelvi Marte

Stays Hot With RBI Triple Monday
Los Angeles Chargers

Hassan Haskins The Leader For No. 3 RB Job
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Plan For 1-2 Punch At RB With Omarion Hampton, Najee Harris
Zebby Matthews

Strikes Out Five In Latest Start At Triple-A
New England Patriots

Patriots View TreVeyon Henderson As A Three-Down Back
Cleveland Browns

Browns View Quinshon Judkins As A Potential Bell-Cow Back
Seattle Seahawks

Seahawks Plan To Develop Jalen Milroe As A QB
Bubba Chandler

Tosses Five Shutout Innings In Latest Start
Tennessee Titans

Titans Unlikely To Pick Up Treylon Burks' Fifth-Year Option
Cleveland Browns

Browns Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To Elijah Moore
Cleveland Browns

Browns Agree To One-Year Deal With Diontae Johnson
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Could Reunite With Amari Cooper
Pittsburgh Steelers

Steelers Sign Robert Woods To One-Year Deal
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back Returns To Stars Lineup Monday
Miro Heiskanen

To Miss Game 5
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go For Game 4
Cleveland Browns

Browns Decline Kenny Pickett's Fifth-Year Option
New York Giants

Giants Won't Pick Up Evan Neal's Fifth-Year Option
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Ikem Ekwonu
Philadelphia Eagles

Dallas Goedert Could Remain An Eagle
Dallas Cowboys

Dallas Could Still Add Wide Receiver Help Prior To 2025 Season
Cleveland Browns

Shedeur Sanders Struggled During Pre-Draft Process
Buffalo Bills

Elijah Moore Visiting With Bills
Jacksonville Jaguars

Emmanuel Ogbah Signs With Jaguars
New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr Undergoes MRI Exam
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Ivan Demidov

Has Historic Outing In Game 4
Timo Meier

Records Two Points Sunday
Andrei Svechnikov

Nets Hat Trick In Game 4 Win
Leon Draisaitl

Caps Off Four-Point Effort With First Postseason Overtime Goal
Connor Hellebuyck

Gets Pulled Again
Alexandre Carrier

Fails To Finish Game 4
Tyler Tucker

Makes Early Exit Sunday
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Frederik Andersen

Exits Game 4 With Injury
Jake Neighbours

Shines On Sunday With Three Points
Jordan Binnington

Makes 30 Saves In Game 4 Victory
Patrik Laine

Not Expected To Play In Game 4
Sam Montembeault

Labeled Day-To-Day
Aliaksei Protas

Considered A Game-Time Decision Sunday
Logan Thompson

A Game-Time Call Sunday
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF