RADIO
What did I say in my first weekend article about Final Four and championship teams? Something along the lines of, "Anyone can win four games, only a select few can win six." And, I believe, this is going to hold true once more.
North Carolina State is on one of the most improbable runs in the history of the sport. Two weeks ago, their coach, Kevin Keatts, was set to get fired as they were losing at halftime to Louisville. Since then, they've rattled off nine straight wins and are tied for the lowest seed ever to make the Final Four.
NC State has won 9 straight elimination games to get to the Final Four. Using pregame win probabilities, the chances of this happening were 0.0097%, or 10314 to 1.
March Madness is unmatched. pic.twitter.com/SA2yBhBU6d
— Evan Miyakawa (@EvanMiya) April 1, 2024
On the other side of the bracket, Alabama profiles as an all-offense, no-defense team that gets bounced early, and one I had losing in the second round to Grand Canyon (don't get me started). But, their revolutionary approach has kept them alive and headed into a matchup with Thanos (UConn). You can find Ryan Goodman's post on each of the remaining teams here. In this article, I'm going to deep dive into the Purdue vs. North Carolina State matchup and talk about a bet I like.
North Carolina State vs. Purdue (-9) at 6:09 p.m. EDT on Saturday, April 6
Yes, NC State is an incredible story. DJ Burns Jr. has been incredibly efficient, either in the mid-post or facilitating to open shooters and cutters. Despite his shine and personal recognition, several surrounding players have also improved their game. Guard DJ Horne's scoring confidence is through the roof, while Mohamed Diarra and Casey Morsell have been excellent contributors on both ends of the floor.
DJ Burns Jr. vs Duke
29 PTS (13-19 FG)
4 REBS
3 AST
2 BLKSHow we feeling about bros game… League? pic.twitter.com/TatqtbzG9y
— Frankie Vision (@Frankie_Vision) March 31, 2024
On the other end, likely National Player of the Year winner Zach Edey has been amazing, beating Tennessee with a 40-point, 16-rebound performance. There's been a lot of shade thrown Edey's way, mainly because of his style, and I get it. Constant post-ups can be boring. But he's grown into such an intelligent player that people just can't stop him and resort to complaints as their out. He plays in the pick-and-roll game, abuses mismatches, constantly resets his feet in the paint, gets fouled A LOT, and most importantly, doesn't get cheap fouls on defense and sits out long periods.
Surround one of the most dominant college players we've ever seen with shooters like Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Mason Gillis, and there just isn't a good answer for Purdue defensively unless you can slow Edey down one-on-one.
Matchup Breakdown
Specifically to this game, the first question to ask is how will NC State choose to guard Edey? I'm sorry, but as good as Burns has been offensively, he cannot single-cover the big man. If so, we will see drop-step baby hooks abused for another 30+ point performance.
If Burns one-on-one is out, can Diarra or Ben Middlebrooks slow him down? I don't like their odds, which means the Wolfpack are going to have to bring double teams constantly. If that's the case, Purdue is going to get open look after open look while being the second-best three-point shooting team nationally at 40.6%. Constantly giving up open looks to the Boilermakers' aforementioned guards is not a recipe for success, either.
Now, let's talk about NC State's offensive attack. Purdue's guards have struggled with athletic wings, and Horne's recent play could be a cause for concern. If coach Matt Painter decides to put Smith on Horne, I'd expect a pretty big game from the latter. However, Lance Jones is Purdue's most athletic backcourt mate, and I expect him to be his primary defender. Between Horne and Burns, we essentially find all of NC State's offense and shot creation.
Yes, Burns abused Kyle Filipowski in one-on-one matchups and was excellent, passing out of double teams against Marquette, but that's not what he's going to face here. Edey is just a massive human and likely will be guarding the opposing big man most of the game. Burns is going to have a difficult time in the post, with Edey standing straight up, defending, and blocking many shots near the paint.
So, how can NC State score? Since Edey isn't the most agile basketball player, Purdue runs a lot of drop coverage. This basically means the center (Edey) doesn't hedge, trap, or switch screens. Instead, he "drops" into the paint to protect the rim while the on-ball defender chases over the top.
Many teams use this coverage to force inefficient mid-range jumpers rather than layups or open threes. Fortunately for the Wolfpack, DJ² (Horne and Burns) are excellent mid-range shooters and have the talent to keep the game close with these looks.
Purdue, Alabama, and Creighton were the high-major defenses that forced the most mid-range attempts last season. All 3 of them also had 7-footers using drop coverage
NEW video breaking down the drop coverages of each team
(sound on 🔊) pic.twitter.com/LFsjGWCl9R
— Jordan Sperber (@hoopvision68) October 2, 2023
Rutgers and Paul Mulcahy scored on the same set 4 times in the final 5:30 of their upset win vs. #1 Purdue.
The set is basically Zoom action (pindown --> DHO) on both sides & the 5 with the ball out top.
Allowed Mulcahy to get middle & attack downhill against drop coverage. pic.twitter.com/NdYLrm4lC3
— Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap) January 3, 2023
Metric Deep Dive
Now that the player-by-player matchup is broken down, let's take a look at some metrics. As expected, Purdue has been one of the best rebounding and shooting teams in college basketball all season. With a 7-foot-4 National Player of the Year candidate at center and multiple sharpshooting guards, it makes sense. Their extra possessions come not from forcing turnovers but on the offensive glass and at the free-throw line. Meanwhile, NC State rarely turns the ball over but doesn't excel in any other major statistical category.
Offensively, Purdue, like most teams in the country, runs a lot of pick-and-roll plays. The Wolfpack rank a lowly 264th in pick-and-roll defense nationally (according to Synergy). The issue with Marquette and Duke wasn't that their offenses were shut down; they simply missed wide-open shot after wide-open shot.
3 point shooting against NC State their last few games
Duke: 5/20 (25%)
Virginia: 9/28 (32%)
North Carolina: 8/30 (27%)
Texas Tech: 7/31 (23%)
Oakland: 12/35 (34%)
Marquette: 4/31 (13%)
- season lowSeason average 3pt against: 34%
Must be March
— Dim Jonovan (@DrRoddy_) March 30, 2024
That lack of shooting efficiency has been a recurring theme for many teams during this NCAA Tournament going against NC State. Call it luck, call it March Madness, call it the overinflated ball (wink wink), whatever you want. But you have to admit the Wolfpack have benefited from some fortunate bounces on their incredible run. There's no shame in that, though; a little positive variance is necessary for a double-digit seed to make a deep run in the tournament.
Short answer, in just 375 games there was a team that either over or under performed SQ by 20 points.
This is out of 5700+ games and, thus, 11400+ team performances this season.
So Marquette falls into approximately the top 1.6% of most unlucky performances in CBB this year…… https://t.co/YHTBugtnHl pic.twitter.com/WwlDyUhi9T
— Justin Perri (@JustinPerri8) March 30, 2024
Where does NC State thrive? They thrive when DJ Burns can score and facilitate in the post. Entering the Marquette game, they averaged a very efficient 1.144 points per possession on post-ups. Marquette over-doubled the post, allowing Burns to find open teammates. Duke took the opposite approach, leaving Filipowski in single coverage, and Burns feasted.
Edey clearly presents a new challenge. I don't think Burns will be able to score at will in single coverage against him, and the Boilermakers likely won't need to double-team Burns and leave open cutters.
My Bet
Okay, I went off on a bit of a tangent there, apologies. If it wasn't clear, I believe Purdue will win this game by double digits. They have an answer for most of what North Carolina State does well and hold several offensive advantages.
The Boilermakers are also one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country, and I can't imagine them replicating the poor shooting performances of Duke and Marquette.
The Wolfpack have had an amazing run, but they'll need a miracle to pull off an upset here. At the time of this post, I laid -9 with Purdue and may make it a two-unit play. Good luck to those who tail, and here's hoping we get the epic National Championship matchup we've all been waiting for!
Final Four Pending:
Purdue -9 (-110 DraftKings) risk 1u to win .91u
Purdue -8.5 (-110 Caesars) risk 1u to win .91u
YTD 142-114-3 +9.62u
Futures: 0-3 -1u
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