FFPC Early ADP Outlooks: Players To Keep An Eye on

As post NFL Draft participation has ramped up in the Fantasy Football Players Championship, we take an early look at Average Draft Positions. We highlight veterans and rookies who may see some of their values rise and fall going forward. Some of them can be value targets right now, and others may be overdrafted soon. We will be monitoring such trends throughout the season in the FFPC.

For a full view of FFPC ADPs you can consult our latest list right here. These are where the high stakes competitors are valuing players in earlier drafts.

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FFPC Early Look: Players To Keep An Eye On

D'Andre Swift (FFPC ADP of 19.45): Do not be surprised to see the ADP rise more, and quickly. A heavy buzz is quickly growing on Swift as most fantasy players seem to believe that his projected heavy volume could potentially lead to high-end RB2 or maybe even RB1 production. I may be contrarian, but I am not personally in that camp. The supporting cast is very weak around Swift, he is going to get a ton of defensive attention, and the receiving numbers won’t get a big boost from swing passes when playing from behind. Plus, goal line chances may not be consistently available because of the state of the Detroit offense.

Michael Thomas (29.72): He could end up being a value play if he stays in this range, and we may see his ADP drop a bit. There is added skepticism on Thomas after the retirement of Drew Brees and a season of disappointment because of injuries. But a healthy Thomas will get fed the ball frequently from whoever plays QB for the Saints and he has a legitimate chance of vaulting back into high WR1 territory.

Najee Harris (31.66): The hype on the Pittsburgh rookie is rapidly increasing because of his situation and versatility. Harris is expected to be an immediate three-down back with added receiving upside. You will see him going in the late first round to early second of many drafts, and it’s already happening in some early leagues and mocks. I believe it’s not all about talent and opportunity. Rookies still have to adjust to the pros and can start slowly or disappoint. Examples in recent seasons such as Miles Sanders and Clyde Edwards-Helaire should be on your mind before you take Harris that high.

Of course, if you are playing in the FFPC the approach to a high stakes competition is different than the one in your league with your friends or co-workers. High stakers swing for upside and may have multiple teams to manage, so they can justify the higher shot on Harris in a few of their leagues. But I am more comfortable taking him after more proven top-level RBs towards the end of the second round. Even when drafting multiple FFPC teams I wouldn’t take Harris late first or early second in more than 35 percent of my drafts. In a “home” league I would not take him that early at all. Opportunity and volume doesn’t always result in projected maximum production.

Travis Etienne (38.89): I also expect his ADP to rise, because some will believe that he is much more talented than James Robinson, and Etienne's ability to score from anywhere on the field as both a runner and receiver will fuel additional fantasy excitement. But Robinson is not going away after a superb rookie year, and I expect him and Etienne to share most of the workloadforthe Jaguars. Robinson should be the inside runner and Etienne will likely operate in space. The Jacksonville backfield could be an unpredictable one, as both RBs could have the better fantasy outing in any given week. I will likely be passing on Etienne if the ADP rises. He’s a great talent, but he is also a rookie in what I project to be a time share.

Julio Jones (53.22): He is getting seriously penalized for his age and last year’s injuries. But as Mike Tagliere annually points out, wide receivers generally don’t start to decline from their prime levels until at least age 33. Many fantasy players somehow believe that the age 30 “old” marker for RBs applies to other positions when it does not. Jones can still be a very good fantasy WR2 this year and still should have a lot of appeal in seasonal leagues. Sure, Kyle Pitts will be in the mix now, too, but he is a rookie and Jones is not going to fall off the face of the earth this season if  he plays most of the schedule. Sure, there are a lot of targets to share in Atlanta, but the Falcons will still throw the ball a heck of a lot. Matt Ryan led the league in passing attempts last season with 626 and that number should not drop much.

Chris Carson (53.88): Some fantasy players may be growing tired of Carson missing time every season. When Carson is available, though, he is a very productive fantasy RB. Last year, he averaged 15.7 Fantasy Points Per Game, which put him on the RB1/RB2 borderline in games he played. He also would have set a new career high in receptions over a full season if he played more than 12 games (tied the career high with 37) and he also had a career-high four TD receptions.  Carson has added appeal in FFPC Best Ball leagues, as you can take advantage of when he plays and produces very good Fantasy totals for your overall production.

Chase Edmonds (79.9): The signing of James Conner seems to have quelled some optimism. But Conner has not been too impressive over the last two seasons, and Edmonds can potentially score from anywhere on the field when healthy. Edmonds and Conner may share some work, but the former has considerably more Fantasy upside. Even if his ADP rises a bit he may be very efficient and sometimes explosive as both a runner and receiver. Edmonds has the look of a value target right now.

Michael Pittman Jr. (118.5): I predict the ADP will rise at least 20 or so spots. T.Y. Hilton’s best days are behind him and if Carson Wentz re-emerges Pittman can bust out in his second season as the Colts’ top wideout. We have already seen the potential. It was on display in the AFC Wild Card Game last season, plus he will often make leaping and contested catches.

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