RADIO
Forget free agency, the NFL Draft, and training camp. Best-ball season is already here and it's not too soon to start drafting.
I know my fellow best-ball junkies have already got multiple rosters built because this is the best time to take advantage of great value picks before their ADP soars. Likewise, there are certain players who are being priced too richly based on recency bias.
In this piece, I'll evaluate early 2021 ADP results from FFPC best-ball drafts to find the top players to target and avoid.
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Crystal Ball Time
Speculation is the name of the game this early on. There is a lot of rumor and innuendo on where the top free agents are going to land and what players or positions teams will target in the draft, but we honestly have no idea how things will shake out. Then there are the mind-blowing scenarios being thrown around that Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson will be traded, which will shake up the entire league.
These factors come into play for anyone drafting early but there is something we can do to help ourselves. Rather than trying to place specific players in specific landing spots, try to project roles. If a high-end wide receiver like Kenny Golladay is sure to sign with another team, possibly Marvin Jones too, does that elevate someone else in that WR corps like Quintez Cephus to starter status? If a team like the Dolphins are openly courting free-agent running backs, that doesn't instill much confidence in Myles Gaskin's touch totals for next season. Grab those players with suppressed fantasy value now before everyone comes to the same conclusion that they are ready to break out.
Rookie Fever Yet to Set In
There's a calculated risk you take when drafting rookies in March or April but the reward could be huge. Last year, Antonio Gibson was a last-round flier or completely undrafted in spring best-ball drafts. He wound up as the running back with the sixth-highest win rate in FFPC leagues, second among rookie RBs. First, naturally, was undrafted James Robinson. On the other hand, Clyde Edwards-Helaire looked like a steal when he was a mid-round pick before the NFL Draft and then saw his ADP jump up to 27 overall. He wound up producing a 7.8% win rate and a lot of heartbreak.
Right now, Najee Harris is the 37th player off the board and Travis Etienne is 42nd, making them the RB20 and RB22 respectively. If the Steelers grab one of those players in the first round, expect that to jump up significantly. Rookie wide receivers don't carry nearly the same risk level that they did in the past, so expect a couple from this year's draft class to contribute immediately. Ja'Marr Chase is the only one being selected in the top 100 overall. Players like Rashod Bateman and Terrace Marshall, currently ranked 154 and 234 in early FFPC ADP, could be huge steals if one or both land in a spot like New Orleans or Green Bay.
Top Values
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Free Agent - 79 ADP (WR29)
As of now, we can only speculate where JuJu will suit up in 2021. Wherever it is, he will be paid to be the alpha receiver and should see his target share go up compared to last season when he had to vie for Big Ben's attention with Diontae Johnson and Chase Claypool. He was second to Johnson with a 19.6% Target% and fourth on the team with a 15.2% air yard share. His 5.5 average depth of target (aDoT) was embarrassingly low for an elite receiver. That will surely not be the case whether he winds up in Las Vegas, Miami, or elsewhere.
Smith-Schuster's 2020 season was a reflection of the Steelers' offense as a whole, struggling to generate much throughout the final few weeks and leaving a bitter taste in the mouth of fantasy managers. Just 24 years old, we should still see the best Smith-Schuster has to offer.
Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers - 100 ADP (WR35)
It is staggering to see that Samuel is being selected a full 35 spots later than Brandon Aiyuk. While the rookie had an impressive end to the season, he saw a high target share because Samuel was largely absent. Samuel was simply snakebitten last year between a preseason foot injury and a midseason encounter with the COVID protocol. If anything, it was impressive to see Samuel put up 11 catches for 133 yards in his first game back from a three-week absence followed by a six-catch, 73-yard performance the following week before exiting early with an aggravation of his injury.
Samuel has a defined role in this offense as a quick-throw target at the line of scrimmage. His 2.2 aDoT shouldn't be seen as a negative. If anything, it guarantees that his target count and consequently PPR floor will be maintained. His 12.3 Yards After Catch/Reception led the league by a wide margin with Cam Sims coming in second at 8.1 YAC/R. Samuel is being criminally undervalued early on due to recency bias. Of course, if Smith-Schuster signs with the 49ers, that knocks out both of these picks with one blow.
Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles - 113 ADP (TE17)
Ertz is almost sure to be with a different team in 2021. The question is which one? The Colts and Seahawks are both dream destinations. Indy targeted tight ends 119 times in 2020 and he'd have a familiar face in Carson Wentz throwing him the ball. Wentz was the starting QB for all three of Ertz's Pro Bowl seasons from 2017-2019, while Seattle has an elite QB in Russell Wilson, at least for now, and an offense bereft of wide receiver depth.
Harken back before an injury-filled 2020 season and Ertz was one of the "big three" tight ends you wanted to pounce on early in fantasy drafts. He is far from done and could have a bounce-back season wherever he winds up. It's hard to imagine any backup tight end has nearly the same upside as Ertz.
Rashaad Penny, Seattle Seahawks - 134 ADP (RB42)
Chris Carson won't be in Seattle next year, which means the Seahawks can sign a free agent RB of their own, draft one, or go with Penny as the feature back. There is absolutely no sense in spending money for a different running back when they could keep Carson, nor does it seem likely they will draft one early when they spent a first-round pick on Penny in 2018. He missed nearly all of 2020 but Penny should finally be ready to take on a lead role, even if a vet or rookie comes in to provide backup.
Seattle was 19th in rushing play percentage last year but that gap closed over the final few weeks of the season as Pete Carroll realized letting Russ cook only worked to the extent that his defense could hold their own. This offense will still focus around Russell Wilson (he's not going anywhere) but Penny has a great chance to see 15 or more carries on a weekly basis. It's not often you can get a feature back well outside the top 100 picks of any draft but that seems to be the case here.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears - 156 ADP (WR54)
This isn't based on the premise that Allen Robinson will be playing elsewhere in 2021; he's already been slapped with the franchise tag and the team could well keep him around at least one more season. While we don't know who will be QB in Chicago next year, it can't possibly be worse than the Nick Foles/Mitch Trubisky combo, can it?
It may not matter, as Mooney held his own catching balls from that duo in his rookie season. He caught 61 passes for 631 yards, saving his best for the season finale with 11 receptions and 93 yards. He didn't have any 100-yard games and only scored four touchdowns, so his weekly win rate is somewhat questionable. The hope here is that the Bears' passing offense takes a much-needed step forward with Mooney playing the WR2 role. The time to strike is now, as Mooney's ADP has risen 16 spots since early February.
Early Fades
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs - 32 ADP (RB19)
Only 19 running backs had 50% or more rushing share for their team and CEH was one at 52%. It was a tough year for rookies all around and the Chiefs should have learned their lesson by running the ball more in the Super Bowl. Edwards-Helaire might even be a great value at RB19 this year!
All of that could be true but it also might be the case that the fantasy community vastly overestimated his value based on landing spot. Whether Edwards-Helaire has the goods to be a stud RB or was mostly a beneficiary of the Joe Brady-run LSU offense is college is a matter for debate elsewhere. The fact remains that Kansas City had the fifth-lowest rushing play percentage in the league last year even after drafting a running back in the first round. That high receiving floor he was supposed to provide netted just 36 receptions for 297 yards over 13 games. The team signing Le'Veon Bell midseason (and not using him) might have had less to do with acquiring depth and more to do with a lack of confidence in CEH. He could serve as a fine low-end RB2 if you wait on the position but don't be fooled twice here.
Myles Gaskin, Miami Dolphins - 55 ADP (RB25)
Gaskin's value holds up for the moment as Aaron Jones wound up re-signing with the Packers. That leaves Chris Carson, James Conner, or Marlon Mack as potential free agent targets, unless the team is eyeing a running back on Day 2 of the NFL Draft. The point is that the team isn't sold on Gaskin as the answer. According to ESPN's Cameron Wolfe, "It would be a shock if the Dolphins don't come away with a new feature back this offseason. Gaskin and Ahmed showed promise, but they are best as rotation backs." This pick may ultimately pan out if the team takes a one-year flier on a guy like Mack and he gets reinjured or they wait for a later round to select a rookie who doesn't wind up impressing. Those are big ifs to count on when investing in a running back nearly in the top 50 overall.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks - 72 ADP (WR27)
Many fantasy managers who rostered Lockett last year got tired of the rollercoaster act. He had a pair of monster games in Week 3 and 7 but didn't reach 100 yards otherwise. His only other multi-TD game came in a meaningless Week 17 game, as if to rub salt in the wound after averaging 8.3 fantasy points per game between Week 12-16 when he was needed most.
Lockett has already ceded the WR1 job to Metcalf but could play more of an ancillary role going forward. Among WRs with at least 500 air yards on the year, DK Metcalf was fifth in air yard share at 39.2% while Lockett was down at 28.5%. If the Seahawks try to maintain a more balanced offensive approach as mentioned above, that means fewer opportunities for Lockett. If they sign a free agent TE, that darkens the outlook even more. Most of all, the inconsistency from Lockett concerns me at his ADP.
Logan Thomas, Washington Football Team - 74 ADP (TE8)
The scoring premium for tight ends naturally inflates the value of borderline TE1 types but Thomas is a player who is going far too high. It's hard to imagine that he's being drafted ahead of receivers like Juju Smith-Schuster, Courtland Sutton, and Odell Beckham, but it is indeed the case. The former Virginia Tech quarterback found sudden success in the NFL at age 29 largely due to his 19.2% target share. That'll happen when your competition for targets past Terry McLaurin consists of Cam Sims, Steven Sims, Isaiah Wright, and Dontrelle Inman. It's also the reason J.D. McKissic tied Thomas with 110 targets and provided one of the biggest win rates for best-ball managers.
Washington is bound to add a receiver through free agency, the draft, or both. Thomas will be just fine but it wouldn't be surprising to see his target share drop off precipitously. He was a great midseason pickup in 2020 but will be vastly overvalued in 2021.
Hunter Henry, Free Agent - 78 ADP (TE9)
Whether Henry signs with a new team or simply stays put in L.A., his stock will be that of a TE1. In a TE-premium scoring format, it's hard to argue against him but there are several other options that could provide better numbers a round or two later. Robert Tonyan is available 12 picks later at 90th. While I don't expect he will score 11 TD or finish as a top-three fantasy again, I also don't find a compelling argument for Henry to be drafted earlier. Irv Smith Jr. has climbed inside the top-100 picks now that Kyle Rudolph has been released. He may be a trendy pick, but he's also a smart one.
Since missing the 2018 season with injury, Henry finished as TE9 and TE12 the past two seasons. That's a solid pick but not a league winner. You're better off grabbing an elite player at the position earlier or taking a chance on a breakout later than getting stuck in between with mediocrity.
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