FFPC ADP Insights: The King's Latest Takes and Observations

Savvy fantasy football players and high stakes competitors are getting their drafting reps in at the Fantasy Football Players Championship (FFPC) site. When reviewing the Average Draft Position reports in the Footballguys Players Championship FFPC leagues, there are some interesting ADP targets to examine and comment on.

It is certainly clear that there are some good value selections available at all levels of the draft, and some player values are rising based on recent player news upfdates, which you can find regularly here on RotoBaller.  Do keep in mind when reviewing FFPC ADPs here, that tight ends are awarded 1.5 points for a reception. We feature the ADP report for all FFPC formats, and highlight the FootballGuys  Players Championship ADPs in our analysis here.

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Running Backs

-Ezekiel Elliott is now being taken at fifth overall, and you will see him picked as a high as third overall in some leagues. With reports of a strong offseason and training camp and expectations that the Dallas offense will be among the league’s best with a healthy Dak Prescott at the helm, there is widespread optimism for a big rebound year. Elliott is now being taken ahead of Derrick Henry. I was backing Elliott for a bounce-back season even before the recent buzz increased on him. I do have Henry ranked one spot higher, as I see him a slightly safer choice, but would not argue passionately against taking Elliott as the fourth RB off the board.

-Antonio Gibson is now being taken as RB10, as concerns about his toe have dissipated and he is ticketed for a very significant role in what should be a quality offensive attack. Ryan Fitzpatrick will throw him the ball out of the backfield even if he does not play consistently on third downs, and Gibson will have a lot of TD chances as a finisher on frequent scoring drives. I am landing Gibson in the earlier part of the second round in many drafts and have been very satisfied to make that selection.

--Nick Chubb is the 11^th RB off the board. I believe that is a good spot to land a guy who rushed for nearly 1,500 yards two seasons ago and rushed for 12 TDs in 12 games last year. The Browns will continue to exhibit a run-heavy offense.

-Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the 14^th RB off the board. Many rookies faced unique challenges last year because of the pandemic, and now there may be increased optimism that Edwards-Helaire can break out in his second season. I can see that happening but would rather bank on David Montgomery sustaining his late-season momentum from last year or going with Chris Carson for very proven production when healthy.

-I view Mike Davis as a value play at 53.9. He has often performed very respectably at times in the past when pushed into a more prominent role, and now he gets the chance to be the clear No. 1 RB for the first time in his career. Expect him to at least be an adequate fantasy starter in a featured role for the first time ever. Davis is versatile, has good vision and change of direction and will be a regular goal-line runner for Atlanta when the Falcons can stay in games.

-Michael Carter is one of my favorite RB values at 70.8. I continue to land him anywhere between the fifth and seventh rounds and have selected him with great enthusiasm. Carter is a dual threat as a runner and receiver and he will emerge as a much-needed offensive threat out of the Jets backfield.

-Xavier Jones is a viable later-round target at 130.9. Darrell Henderson has dealt with durability issues, and Jones appears to have the early lead for the backup job with the Rams. Los Angeles may keep any eye on some veteran cuts late in the preseason, but if the depth chart remains the same Jones has some deep sleeper potential.

Wide Receivers

-The hype train has pushed CeeDee Lamb to the No. 10 spot at WR.  High stakers in the FFPC are not just about following narratives, though. If they believe a strong upside difference-making play could give them an edge over the competition they will make an aggressive move for such a target.

-Tyler Lockett may turn out to a be a solid selection at 42^nd overall. There is definitely a sense he is a “boom or bust” type, but this season the Seattle offense should take more of the high percentage passing opportunities that defenses give them. Lockett should be very busy as a chain-mover while he also continues to make some big plays, and he figures to be a much steadier fantasy performer in 2021.

-Tee Higgins is being taken at 52.9 in the FFPC, ahead of Ja’Marr Chase, at 55.1 overall. While you will see Chase being taken ahead of all other Cincinnati WRs on other platforms, the savvy high stakers are going for Higgins over the rookie, a move I agree with. There is more hype on Chase but I will lean to the more experienced player who flashed a lot of promise last year. I tend to be slightly skeptical on many rookies and want to see them prove it on the field first.

-Odell Beckham Jr. is a very intriguing target at 63.9 overall. While the Browns are a run-first team and Baker Mayfield played better without Beckham last year, the WR is very eager to show he can recapture his better form and become a significant contributor to Cleveland’s newfound winning ways. All reports on his continued recovery have been positive, and Beckham is a worthy WR3 pick with some upside to re-emerge as a good fantasy starter.

-I like Kenny Golladay as a quality value play at 76.5. Although health seems to be a concern, Golladay’s regular season status does not appear to be in jeopardy and I will not ding him much for a preseason injury. If he can manage to stay on the field when the season starts, Golladay is hard to cover anywhere on the field and I will not forget that he led the league in TD catches two years ago while playing half the season without his starting QB.

-Michael Thomas is hard to pass on at 90.6. When you can get a WR1 type to stash for the stretch run and fantasy playoffs, he is well worth stashing if you have already drafted your primary starters at the position.

-D.J. Chark is a very good target at 92.5. He is going to finally have the benefit of a stable QB situation and should finally settle in as a more dependable fantasy option with some real TD promise.

-Jaylen Waddle is definitely worth the shot at 107.2. When speaking to  longtime Miami beat reporter Alain Poupart of Sports Illustrated on RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio recently, he projected Waddle to emerge as Miami’s No. 1 WR target as a rookie. I am skeptical on rookies very often as I said, but will certainly take the upside shot in the double figure rounds.

-Curtis Samuel is a terrific value at 108.0. His ADP has fallen because of a preseason groin injury, but he is on the mend and I see him having his best season yet as a clear starter for Washington while working with Fitzpatrick.

Quarterbacks

-Aaron Rodgers is the seventh QB off the board, but I could see taking him as soon as the QB4 slot. He is dialed in on trying to get back to the Super Bowl and that means having a very strong regular season to attempt to nail down home field advantage in the NFC playoffs and not squandering it this time. Plus there is the obvious desire to shine brightly after the very controversial offseason.

-Trey Lance is the 13^th QB off the board, another signal of how high stakers will aggressively go after the upside play. Lance is actually being taken ahead of Jalen Hurts, who has a much less decorated receiving crew but he also has a obviously firm hold on his job right now. I do personally prefer Justin Fields to Lance, as I think he will be a more consistent passer earlier in his career, and he reminds me a lot of Deshaun Watson as a player

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Tight Ends

-Robert Tonyan is the 11^tH TE off the board, but I have seen him go as late as the 12^th round in some drafts. Many fantasy players are treating Tonyan as if his 2020 season was some sort of fluke, but once a pass-catcher gains the confidence of Aaron Rodgers, he will continue to be involved in the Green Bay passing game. I do not think there will be a significant TD drop-off from Tonyan this season, and he could catch some more passes than he did last season.

-Zach Ertz is a very good value target at 161.3. If the Eagles do find a taker in a trade if Ertz shows he still can function as a key part of an offense, he could re-emerge as a quality fantasy starter at some point.

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