RADIO
Race two of the NASCAR Cup Series postseason heads to Richmond Raceway this weekend, where many of the playoff drivers run exceptionally well. Meanwhile, others need a standout run, in order to be in a good position come the final race of the opening round at Bristol Motor Speedway.
Yes, the playoff opener at Darlington Raceway was eventful, as 12 of the 16 drivers battling for the championship had some sort of issue. And that race? Awesome. Now, it's time for Richmond to deliver a banger.
Fantasy wise, typically the same old, same old are the frontrunners at Richmond. Because of that, you'll need to think outside the box on the rear of your lineup. And this might be the first time all season I'm saying this (hopefully it doesn't come back to haunt you), avoid Hendrick Motorsports, despite Alex Bowman won at the .75-mile short track in the spring. Instead, I've got high expectations for Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske this weekend.
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Be sure to also check out all of our other weekly NASCAR DFS articles, rankings and and analysis to help you set your optimal DFS lineups. Just a reminder, qualifying isn't until Sunday morning at 9:00 a.m. ET, just four hours before the scheduled green flag.
Kyle Busch
(DraftKings $11,500 | FanDuel $13,000 | DK SportsBook +650)
As noted above, I'm high on JGR and Team Penske this weekend. According to DK SportsBook, four of the drivers I've listed are the four drivers with the best odds of winning the race. So, we're not exactly going out on a limb here (wait for later).
Kyle Busch needs a solid run this weekend. After last week's mid-race debacle, which ultimately costed him $50,000 of his own dollars for the way he drove into the garage, Busch enters the race 14th in the championship standings, two points below the cutline.
Though Busch sits in an uncomfortable position, two points isn't a major deficit. Add in the fact that Busch is a six-time Richmond winner (and eight-time winner at Bristol), I like his odds this weekend. In addition, he starts 15th of the 16 playoff drivers -- all 16 make up the first 16 starting positions -- he's likely going to be moving forward in a hurry.
Joey Logano
(DraftKings $10,700 | FanDuel $12,500 | DK SportsBook +700)
While most of the top half of this article will feature Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, Joey Logano is the one from Team Penske that stands out. In the spring race, the No. 22 car led 49 laps and rounded out the podium. And in the last eight Cup races at the short track, Logano has six top-five finishes.
Odds are, Logano will be a factor come Saturday evening. In addition, Team Penske has shown -- particularly Logano and Brad Keselowski -- its most strength on 750 horsepower tracks this season. Remember New Hampshire two months ago? Logano was two laps down early after a penalty. He rebounded to finish fourth.
Logano is always strong at Richmond, and I don't see any reason why that will change this weekend. The No. 22 Ford is quite expensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it's up to you on whether you want to feature Team Penske or JGR in your lineup. Logano will start sixth.
Denny Hamlin
(DraftKings $10,400 | FanDuel $13,500 | DK SportsBook +650)
Finally, Denny Hamlin was able to crack victory lane last weekend at one of his best tracks on the circuit, Darlington. It just so happens, the Virginia native isn't too shabby at his home racetrack, either.
In 29 starts at Richmond, Hamlin has a trio of victories with 18 top-10 finishes. Dating back to the fall 2015 race (11 starts ago), the No. 11 car has finished worse than sixth just two times. In the spring, he led a race-high 207 laps. Lining up second on Saturday could mean he leads more than half the race again.
Of all 16 playoff drivers, Hamlin is the one with absolutely nothing to lose this weekend at Richmond. Because of that, he can be more aggressive and take additional risks. There's a good chance he's in contention for the win come 400 laps.
Martin Truex Jr.
(DraftKings $10,200 | FanDuel $14,000 | DK SportsBook +550)
If Martin Truex Jr. could have had a clean race last weekend at Darlington, I think he would be the one in the catbird seat heading into Richmond. But having a loose wheel, getting trapped a lap down, rebounding only to have a speeding penalty late when he would have been the leader, to finish fourth, that's an eventual night for the 2017 champion.
Fortunately for Truex, his last handful of starts at Richmond haven't been eventful. Since winning his first short track race in 2019 at Richmond, the No. 19 car has been unstoppable, sweeping the races that year at the track. Last year, he finished runner-up to Keselowski, while rounding out the top five in April.
James Small, crew chief of the No. 19 Toyota has got Truex dialed in at the short tracks, particularly Richmond. In the last nine races at Richmond, Truex has led north of 100 laps on seven different occasions. He will be strong starting third.
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Austin Dillon
(DraftKings $8,400 | FanDuel $8,500| DK SportsBook +5000)
Alright, ready to have some fun? While the four drivers above are arguably the best at Richmond currently, Austin Dillon isn't a longshot. Last fall, besides the No. 2 car, Dillon had the best car in the field, but ultimately finished fourth by pitting early on his final stop. The 55 laps the No. 3 car led were the most Dillon's led in a single Cup race.
Now, while I don't expect Dillon to produce those numbers this weekend, he is a solid choice for the middle of your lineup. In the last handful of races at Richmond, he's earned a quartet of top-10 finishes. In April, he placed 10th.
Here, I like Dillon because he will roll off from 19th starting position. There's not much to lose for the No. 3 team, sitting in 17th position in the championship standings, 130 points above 18th.
Aric Almirola
(DraftKings $7,500 | FanDuel $9,200 | DK SportsBook +2500)
With the season Aric Almirola has had, just making the playoffs makes the 2021 season successful. And he made the postseason by winning at New Hampshire, a venue that resembles Richmond.
After taking the checkered flag in 16th position last week, Almirola finds himself 11th in points, three markers ahead of the cutline. Not comfortable, but in a better position than some big names, heading to arguably his best non-superspeedway track on the circuit.
In 18 starts at Richmond, Almirola has seven top-10 efforts; three of which have come in the last five races while driving for Stewart-Haas Racing. His first of three top 10s this season came at the .75-mile track in April after starting 22nd. This time, the No. 10 Ford will begin from ninth position -- just his sixth top-10 start of the season.
Ryan Newman
(DraftKings $6,000 | FanDuel $5,500 | DK SportsBook +15000)
Here's where it gets interesting. While the top of most lineups will be dominated by Busch, Logano, Hamlin, Truex, Keselowski, Kyle Larson, etc., the bottom few slots is where players will make up points this weekend. Because of that, players must be strategic with their moves.
Putting a veteran like Ryan Newman on your team isn't a bad call. The No. 6 team enters Richmond with consecutive top-15 finishes for the first time this season. And more times than not, he finishes inside the top 10 at Richmond (20 times in 38 starts); including a pair in 2019 for Roush Fenway Racing.
But, if you look solely on April's results, it wasn't pretty. Newman finished 30th and had a disastorous day, which included a spin. With the No. 6 car starting 24th, there's room for Newman to move up the scoring pylon.
Corey LaJoie
(DraftKings $5,500 | FanDuel $4,000 | DK SportsBook +30000)
Speaking of someone that's on a bit of a run, Corey LaJoie has put together the two best races of his Cup career in consecutive weeks. Finishes of 15th and 16th, respectively, might not show how competitive the No. 7 Spire Motorsports car was, but in the majority of the last 900 miles run, LaJoie was running inside the top 10.
As the 2021 season has gone on, LaJoie has gotten more competitive for Spire. Since finishing 20th at Circuit of The Americas in late May, the No. 7 car has finished worse than 25th just once (36th at Pocono I), tallying up seven top 20s in that timeframe.
LaJoie won't win the race on Saturday evening, so don't put money down on his 300-1 odds. But, at $5,500 and $4,000 on DraftKings and FanDuel, the No. 7 Chevrolet is a steal to round out your lineup with. He's the best viable option of cheap drivers on the board.
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