Cincinnati Bengals WR: Is Three A Crowd?

Come and knock on my door…we’ve been waiting for you.

This reference will probably be lost on some of you, but in the 1980s, there was a sitcom called Three’s Company. The premise is that a cute guy moves in with two women, one hot and buxomly and the other cute and smart.

Sound familiar? Does the Cincinnati Bengals receiver room have a crowd control issue? Is three an unmanageable crowd or just good company?

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Can Three Be Good Company?

Can three good wide receivers on the same team be an issue in the fantasy football world?

Ja’Marr Chase 2021 WR3

Tee Higgins 2021 WR17

Tyler Boyd 2021 WR33

Chase is the hot one, and Higgins is currently the smart one…so where does that leave Boyd? The Bengals unanimously have the best wide receiving corps in the NFL.

Per Pro Football Focus, the Bengals' wide receivers are ranked in the top 30. Chase is WR3, Higgins WR13, and Boyd WR28. Chase and Boyd were tied for the team lead with 16 receptions for a first down on third downs. Higgins finished with career highs in catches (74), receiving yards (1091), and targets (110) even though he missed three games with a shoulder injury.

The Bengals’ offense had the 13^th highest pass rate in neutral game script. They passed on just 52.48%, which was lower than the Baltimore Ravens, New York Giants, and the Miami Dolphins. In the playoffs, the offense raised to a 69% pass play rate in neutral game scripts.

The Bengals’ 2021 offense was 20^th in pass attempts (33.2 average per game) and were second in team passer rating (105.5 average).  Their target breakdown was 18% for the running back position and 66% for the wide receiver position.

All this happened behind Pro Football Focus’ 29^th ranked pass blocking offensive line. Their quarterback was sacked on average 3.5 times per game, the most in the NFL.

How did they manage to roster three fantasy football-relevant wide receiving options? The truth is they didn’t.

Is Three a Crowd?

For real football, the Cincinnati Bengals’ wide receiving corps is elite. Having three capable wide receivers is a defensive nightmare. It is also a nightmare for fantasy football managers.

During the 2021 season, Chase had six games where he did not have double-digit fantasy points. That includes Week 9 against Cleveland with 2.9 fantasy points, Week 12 against Pittsburgh where he had 3.9 fantasy points, and Week 15 against Denver with 0.3 fantasy points.

Higgins had eight games during the 2021 season, scoring under 10 fantasy points. After missing Weeks 3 and 4, he went Weeks 5-11 (missed Week 10) where he did not score above 10 fantasy points, including Week 11 against the Las Vegas Raiders, where he scored 1.5 fantasy points.  In Week 15 (fantasy playoffs for some) Higgins scored 2.3 fantasy points.

Boyd for the season was a boom or bust fantasy option. For the most part, it was a bust. He had only five games with double-digit fantasy points, but the one game was in Week 15 against the Denver Broncos when both Chase and Higgins disappointed. Boyd had  15.6 fantasy points in the game.

Chase is the alpha, the hot one, the one everyone wants. He not only won Offensive Rookie of the Year last year, finishing with the most yards by a rookie (1,455), he also had the Bengals’ single-season receiving record, led the team with receptions (81), and was third in the league with receiving touchdowns (13).

Per Fantasy Pros, he is WR3 off the boards in redraft formats, but as his fantasy output wasn’t a consistent barrage of double-digit fantasy points. His highest fantasy day came in Week 17 against Kansas City Chiefs (44.6) and his lowest in Week 15 against Denver (0.3).

Chase’s Weekly Fantasy Points per Fantasy Data

Higgins was targeted on a higher percentage of his routes (94.3% route on 23.9% target share), running 32.1 per game to Chase’s 31.7. He had a shoulder injury in Week 2 causing him to miss Weeks 3-4 and missed Week 10.

Higgins' Weekly Fantasy Points per Fantasy Data

Boyd is the odd man out.  Last season he finished with a four-year low in catches (67), receiving yards (828), and targets (94).

Boyd’s Weekly Fantasy Points per Fantasy Data

Boyd finished the season as WR31 in PPR leagues. He was second on the team in targets (73%), Chase (85%), and Higgins (65%) while playing 89% of his snaps in the slot.

Conclusion

The Bengals have an elite starting wide receiving corps but lack depth. For reality purposes, that matters for fantasy players the field is too crowded (we really don’t care about the lack of depth). Who do you pick?

Chase is the alpha. His ceiling is high, but his floor can be equally low. Boyd can be a PPR reliable, but his ceiling is middle range, and his floor can drop any week. Higgins has a high ceiling and low floor; through eight games last year averaged only 56 receiving yards per game, then in Week 11 on, he had 100-plus receiving yards in four of the next six games.

The team’s offensive output is equally uneven. Their quarterback was sacked 51 times, the most in the NFL. The offense ran the ball 44% of the time but only averaged 25.6 carries per game.

They were the seventh scoring offense in total touchdowns (54) but were only 27^th in offensive plays (61.63 average/game). With all the accolades this wide receiving corps is receiving, for fantasy football, three’s a crowd.

Special thanks to teamrankings.com, statmuse.com, and profootballreference.com for their stats.

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