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Scott Engel's 2020 fantasy football analysis of Vikings rookie WR Justin Jefferson. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and top dynasty WR target?
For the past three seasons, the Minnesota Vikings had one of the better starting WR duos in the league when their top two targets were on the field together. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen presented major challenges for opposing secondaries. But during the 2019 season, Diggs openly expressed unhappiness with his role in the offense, as his reception total fell from 102 to 63 in a run-based offense.
Diggs was dealt to Buffalo in March, and the Vikings sought his replacement in the NFL Draft. They landed Justin Jefferson from LSU with the 22nd overall selection. Coming from a historic offense in 2019, Jefferson posted very impressive totals, and a good chunk of that production can also be attributed to his diverse skill set, which drew raves from scouts and NFL Draft analysts.
Some NFL experts have already made the leap to predict Jefferson can be better than Diggs. Even if he is not quite as productive as Diggs was early in his pro career, Minnesota will be looking for him to make a quick impact and the hope is eventually he can become a standout starting WR for the Vikings. He joins a run-first offense, yet will have significant expectations right away. He does have the potential to emerge as a strong fantasy WR2 over time.
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Profile
Team: Minnesota Vikings
College: LSU
Height/Weight: 6’1”, 202 lbs
NFL Draft Slot: Round 1, Pick 22
The Jefferson File
| Year | Class | G | Rec | Yds | Avg | TD |
| 2017 | FR | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2018 | SO | 13 | 54 | 875 | 16.2 | 6 |
| 2019 | JR | 15 | 111 | 1540 | 13.9 | 18 |
| Career | 165 | 2415 | 14.6 | 24 |
Justin Jefferson's college statistics via sports-reference.com
In a spectacular junior season, Jefferson was the leading pass-catcher in the nation, was second in touchdowns and third in receiving yards. His Peach Bowl performance of 14 receptions for 227 yards and four touchdowns seared his name into the record books, as the TDs set a College Football Playoff Game record and tied for the most in any bowl game.
LSU’s 2019 offense may be remembered as one of the greatest of all time, but Jefferson was not just a product of the system.
Watching Jefferson on film, it is apparent that he created a lot of his own success, even though it was difficult to hone in on him defensively with all of the other weaponry the Tigers employed. He has very good hands and body control.
Jefferson has outstanding leaping ability and knows how to win on contested catches. Pro Football Focus noted that Jefferson’s contested catch rate of 92.3% led all of the 89 eligible pass-catchers who saw at least 10 contested targets.
Contested catch rates graphic via Pro Football Focus
His route running is smooth. Jefferson is not a pure speed merchant, yet has shown the penchant for using decent speed and quickness to add yardage after the catch. He is fundamentally strong and is very savvy in terms of how he recognizes and attacks coverages. He can threaten defenses from anywhere on the field.
Jefferson should be a very productive pro receiver in terms of making big plays, as he can win on 50/50 balls, back-shoulder throws, fades, and in the areas near the goal line. He is also a very willing run blocker, and that will ensure he stays on the field often in the NFL. The one concern as he prepared to enter the pros is that he did much of his damage as a junior from the slot, and if he was not picked by a team that ticketed him for a similar role, he could face another hurdle in adjusting to the NFL.
PFF also pointed out that Jefferson ran 575 of his 583 total routes from the slot last season. He led the nation with 37 explosive plays of 15 yards or more from the slot. He forced 24 missed tackles from the slot.
Fit and Outlook
When Jefferson was drafted by Minnesota, not many disputed that he was the best remaining WR on the board. But he was going to a team that already had a well-established slot receiver, Adam Thielen. Published reports have indicated that the Vikings are comfortable with Jefferson moving outside, and the rookie has expressed confidence he can make the adjustment.
Before his junior season at LSU, Jefferson played mainly on the outside as a sophomore. As stated by 247 Sports, Jefferson worked on the outside on 553 of his 697 snaps in his second year at LSU. The 2018 Tigers relied more heavily on the running game, yet Jefferson still was the most productive pass-catcher on the team, with 54 receptions for 875 yards and six touchdowns.
Jefferson has already shown he can work on the outside, even though his best production has come from the slot. He has also been hailed for his strong work ethic, willingness to learn and a tireless approach to practicing. The Vikings’ official site has already reported that Jefferson has been in regular contact with Thielen as he learns the playbook.
Jefferson was a first-round target not just because of his very promising skills, he is also considered to be a highly dedicated student of the game and a very smart player. Those traits are added pluses to his natural abilities and add to his appeal. So while there will be a natural learning curve in the pros, including playing on the outside at a higher level, Jefferson seems to have the physical and mental skills to develop into a very good NFL wideout.
In his first season, Jefferson will join an offense that frustrated Diggs. Minnesota had the third-highest run/pass ratio in the league in 2019. Kirk Cousins ranked 24th in passing attempts and 16th in yardage. Jefferson will get the chance to start right away as the projected No. 2 WR for the Vikes, but he will have to prove he can be efficient and make key plays instead of depending on the heavy sort of volume he saw in his final year at LSU. Jefferson may make a quick impact as a scoring target near the goal line, and his yardage totals can certainly be respectable, but there is not a lot of upside in terms of receptions for 2020.
Injuries have been an issue for Thielen, though, and if he misses any time in 2020, Jefferson could be pushed into a prime role in the passing game. There is not much quality depth behind Thielen and Jefferson on the Minnesota depth chart. Such a situation could have its positives for Jefferson, as he could be fed much more targets and potentially work out of the slot.
In the FFPC, Jefferson has an overall ADP of 144 and 45th at wide receiver. He is being drafted after WRs such as Jamison Crowder and James Washington, so rookie year expectations are not high for him as later-round pick, but he is not being completely ignored. His consensus Dynasty ADP ranking is ninth overall and fourth at WR.
Some NFL experts believe Jefferson lacks the speed to become a No. 1 WR in the NFL. Other analysts see an Odell Beckham Jr./Reggie Wayne type ceiling. There have also been comparisons to Marvin Jones. Over time, his blend of skills should translate into very good all-around production. Once Jefferson hits his prime, you may see him make all kinds of flashy catches in many different types of situations. He may never be quite among the league leaders in receptions, yet the yardage and TD totals could boost him into high-end fantasy WR2 territory.
Thielen will turn 30 before the season starts. That is not old for a WR yet, but from the longer-term perspective, but he could be two to three years away from decline, which means Jefferson could become Minnesota’s WR1 in a few seasons. If you were able to nab him in a dynasty draft, Jefferson could be a solid fantasy WR2 for you by his third pro campaign. The upside may really start to flash in 2021.
2020 PROJECTED STATS: 53 receptions, 750 yards, six TD
