RADIO
Pierre Camus analyzes the fantasy impact of Kenley Jansen re-signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers and how it affects other teams' closer situations.
Kenley Jansen had many suitors this offseason, but he spurned them all to stay in his comfort zone. The Marlins, Nationals, and Yankees all came calling for Jansen, but he preferred the California lifestyle and is happy with the direction the team is headed. While the bullpen in Los Angeles will remain status quo, his signing had a ripple effect on several other clubs.
Jansen's value to the Dodgers and fantasy owners can't be overstated. He finished the 2016 season with a 1.83 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, 13.6 K/9, and 47 saves. Over the last three seasons, his 127 saves rank him second among all relievers, behind only Mark Melancon (131). The move to keep Jansen saves the Dodgers from settling for a less dependable veteran free agent reliever or scrambling to find an in-house replacement that clearly doesn't exist.
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As it is, the Dodgers finished 10th in the league with 22 blown saves, six of which came from Jansen. The team would like to see him cut down on that number, but they know it could a lot worse without him. Their biggest rivals, the San Francisco Giants, led the league with 30 blown saves and the bullpen may have cost them from advancing in the playoffs. For that reason, the Giants gave Melancon a four-year, $62 million contract. Now, the top two save leaders of the past couple of seasons both reside in the NL West.
As for the teams that didn't land Jensen, they are forced to come up with contingency plans. The Marlins added 37 year-old Brad Ziegler, who started the year saving 18 games for Arizona before being shipped to Boston as a setup man. He will compete with incumbent A.J. Ramos, who saved 40 games in his second year as Marlins closer. Ramos only blew three saves on the season and finished with the lowest HR/FB% of his career at 1.2%. He allowed a career high .313 BABIP, which could indicate positive regression closer to his .270 average. Chances are Ramos remains the closer with Ziegler and/or Junichi Tazawa handling the eighth inning. Ziegler has high-end handcuff appeal right away.
The Nationals are still in search of a ninth-inning option (assuming they don't bring Jonathan Papelbon back for a third shot just for the hell of it). Shawn Kelley could be the one to step in if they can't sign anyone significant before Spring Training. Kelley has only 11 career saves under his belt, but his 12.4 K/9 and 7.27 K/BB last season suggest closer ability.
Blake Treinen is another possibility, although he also has no closing experience. Treinen ranked second among all non-closers in high leverage situations. This is a great indicator of possible success for relievers filling the ranks of departed closers, as we saw with Brandon Maurer and Edwin Diaz among others last season. Many a fantasy baseball owner already see Hector Neris as a potential closer in 2017; Treinen doesn't get much recognition but maybe he should be viewed the same way.
Meanwhile, the Yankees turned back to Chapman, signing him to an $86 million deal, which is the current record among closers. Playing in New York doesn't hurt his value whatsoever, although it would have been nice to see him stay in the National League. He will compete with Jansen and Melancon to be top dog among all closers in fantasy points.
Kenley Jansen should enjoy the same value entering the 2017 season as a top-three closer in fantasy drafts, just as he did in 2016. Ramos could have a chance to repeat his 40 save season, keeping him near the top of the second tier of closers. The Nats are the biggest losers so far, having missed on Jansen, while letting Melancon move to the opposite coast. Their ninth-inning job is still up for grabs, so fantasy owners should pay close attention to the bullpen situation throughout the spring for a possible value in the middle rounds of drafts.
