Welcome back to this week's top WR smash starts. This year, we have plenty of WR movement due to in-season trades and devastating injuries.
Last week, we had some up-and-down picks that were highlighted by big weeks from Rome Odunze (five receptions, 104 yards) and Courtland Sutton (seven receptions, 122 yards, and a passing TD). Unfortunately, Josh Downs and Michael Pittman Jr. did not manage to come through.
This week I’m hoping to smash all my picks and have picked some bigger names to “up the ante” and predict them finishing in the top 12. My name is Ellis Johnson, and this is my Week 10 WR Smash Starts.
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Tee Higgins (WR, CIN) and Mike Gesicki (TE, CIN)
I’m predicting Higgins will be back for this massive Thursday night game. After missing the last two games with a quad injury, the Bengals desperately need him back for this divisional duel.
Although not the best indicator for future matchups, it’s interesting to note that Higgins had great games against the Ravens.
In his career, he has averaged 11 targets, 6.4 receptions, and one touchdown per game against them. That includes earlier this season, where he had 14 targets, nine receptions, 83 yards, and two scores. The Ravens are also allowing the most fantasy points to the position, with 147 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game.
He has yet to practice this week, which is worrisome because of his availability. If he misses, you can play Mike Gesicki as a replacement. Yes, you read that right. The athletic TE has replaced the big WR, as Ja'Marr Chase moves outside and Gesicki becomes the primary slot WR.
The Mike Gesicki griddy is one of the best traditions in football pic.twitter.com/b1eIsnl4Gh
— Billy Moy (@PFF_Billy) November 3, 2024
Malik Nabers (WR, NYG)
Nabers started the season on fire. With three of his first four games as a top-12 WR, it was clear his talent and ability were as advertised coming out of college. Unfortunately, since returning from his concussion, he has yet to finish higher than WR28 over the last three weeks.
Thankfully, Nabers gets a dose of the fantasy football accelerant this week, also known as playing the Panthers. The Panthers' defense can not stop anything. Over their last three games, they have allowed an average of 416 yards, which includes matchups against the Saints and Denver.
The Giants are also not a great team, however, they can put decent performances up on teams that can’t get to the QB. The Panthers have the second-lowest sack percentage in the league.
This offense runs through Nabers. If Daniel Jones has time to get Nabers the ball, he’ll have double-digit targets and a good chance at a touchdown. I have Nabers ranked as a top-5 play this week.
I can't believe I've seen some " #Giants fans" on here questioning Malik Nabers' effort level.
He's not dogging it out there & he entered Week 9 ranking No. 1 overall among all NFL WRs in separation score. Can't create separation by not giving effort. pic.twitter.com/iWd0amZpH1— Dan Schneier (@DanSchneierNFL) November 4, 2024
Nico Collins (WR, HOU)
Collins comes back just in time for the Texans. This team, and more specifically C.J. Stroud, has not looked the same since Collins went down. In three of their last four games, the Texans have failed to have over 200 passing yards. If they want to have a chance against a rolling Lions team this week, that needs to change.
Thankfully, the Lions are a pass funnel. Their defense averaged fewer than 80 rushing yards to RBs per game. Although Joe Mixon has been on a tear, this game will likely be won with Stroud’s arm.
Collins went on an incredible pace at the start of this year. With eight or more targets in every full game (including 15 targets in Week 4), he had fantasy finishes as the WR one, four, and ten in that span.
Tank Dell and Collins should have massive days against a Lions team, allowing 206 yards to the WR position per game, which is the most in the league. Collins is the second WR in this article that I have ranked as a top-5 WR this week.
Nico Collins in 2023:
80 receptions, 1,297 yards, 8 receiving TDs (all career-highs)
A well-deserved extension to stay in Houston @lbg_nico7 🤝 pic.twitter.com/UbLowvy8zZ
— NFL (@NFL) May 28, 2024
Parker Washington (WR, JAX)
From predicting three top-12 receivers, we now have Parker Washington as a top-30 play this week. Washington has flashed here and there when Christian Kirk has missed time. Now that Kirk is out for the season and Gabriel Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are banged up, Washington has a great opportunity.
We saw a sneak peek of this last week with both Kirk and Davis out. In the first half, Washington had 22 of Lawrence's 36 passing yards. At the end of the day, he finished with six targets, three receptions, and 41 yards. That was a solid 20% target share.
This week, he goes against a Vikings team that has struggled against short passes. Although last week they dominated Joe Flacco and the Colts, on the season, they are allowing the second yards per game to the WR position (196) and the second most fantasy points.
With Stefon Gilmore likely following Thomas Jr., that leaves Akayleb Evans potentially on Washington and Evan Engram. I expect both Engram and Washington to volume their way to solid fantasy performances, and it could be bigger if one finds a touchdown.
Parker Washington
last week
19.3% target share
second on the team in rec yards (41)could be the best point per dollar WW WR add this week if you need help over the next two weeks
Next up: MIN & DET
MIN - 3rd most fppg allowed to slot WRs
DET - allowing the MOST fppg to… pic.twitter.com/kdAKcY17Qp— Derek Brown (@DBro_FFB) November 4, 2024
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