Fantasy Football Wide Receivers You Must Draft in 2024 - Part V

This will be the series' final entry, and we’ll focus on four receivers this time, although two are on the same team. With this particular edition, we must get comfortable with the unknown. Three of these players are rookies, and one played sparingly last season in his rookie year. However, the unknown isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

The unknown can sometimes turn fantasy managers off, but it offers endless possibilities. Not only that but often the fear of the unknown greatly lowers the price and doesn’t always accurately assess the upside a player’s situation may have. All of these players have an ADP at or worse than WR65, so in this situation, that unknown piece is a positive because we need these players to outperform their ADP to be fantasy-relevant vastly.

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Dontayvion Wicks, Green Bay Packers

The short and the sweet of it is this: Dontayvion Wicks was really good in short spurts as a rookie. Romeo Doubs, on the other hand, isn’t very good. Christian Watson is always hurt. Jayden Reed is a full-time slot receiver. Jordan Love looks like a future elite quarterback. Matt LaFleur is one of the best coaches, and the Packers will have a top-10 offense. Long story short, that’s why we’re buying Wicks this offseason. Let’s take a little bit of a deeper look than that, though.

Since 2022, there have been 48 receivers with at least 150 targets. Doubs ranks 45th in yards per game. The three below him are K.J. Osborn, Elijah Moore, and Robert Woods. The three above him are Darius Slayton, Tyler Boyd, and Curtis Samuel. Doubs is 44th in yards per target at just 6.7. He’s 41st in success rate at 49.1%, 39th in yards after the catch per reception at 3.3, and has the third-worst broken tackle rate. His 9.2% drop rate is the highest of all 48 qualifying receivers.

Doubs’ career yards-per-route-run average is just 1.39, and he also has a yards-per-target average of just 6.7. Doubs is an okay No. 3 receiver and a good No. 4, but he doesn’t have the efficiency to be a No. 1 or a No. 2. In Doubs' Reception Perception Profile following the 2022 season, which was his rookie year, Matt Harmon had this to say about him, an assessment that matches what the numbers indicate:

"While Doubs was able to give Green Bay some moments as a rookie, he struggled to consistently get open. His success rate vs. man and press coverage were both below the 10th percentile. While he was better against zone coverage (24th percentile), it wasn’t enough to make it a needle-moving result. Overall, Doubs looks like he can be a nice part of a wide receiver rotation but some of these results raise questions about his ceiling. Unless he takes a step that these metrics don’t forecast in his second season, he likely tops out as the Packers’ WR3, at best."

Watson has certainly flashed at times, but availability is the biggest concern. He’s logged 65% of the snaps in just 15 games through two seasons. He’s missed 10 games completely. In the 23 regular-season games he’s appeared in, Watson has over 50 yards in just six. He’s a bit of a boom-or-bust player.

Some of that can be attributed to a lack of snaps, but that’s part of the problem. He’s been much more efficient than Doubs, averaging 1.98 yards per route run with 8.7 yards per target. Watson still has the potential to become the Packers' No. 1 receiver. When he's been healthy, he's been very good. The problem is, he hasn't been healthy enough, which helps increase the appeal of Wicks.

Wicks had an excellent Reception Perception Rookie Profile, which can be found here. While we've already illustrated some of Doubs' shortcomings and Watson is still best utilized as a deep-ball threat, Wicks could very well emerge as the Packers' best do-it-all type of receiver since Reed is largely confined to the slot. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception had this to say about Wicks in his profile:

"Wicks played all three receiver positions as a rookie. He was typically the first man pushed into a starting role regardless of injury. That shows his versatility and ability to win at a variety of spots. His long-term home could either be an X or flanker outside for the Packers, or he could rotate between the two. Wicks’ overall success rates range somewhere between solid to very good. His success rate vs. zone of 78.6% is a perfectly fine number and did tick up throughout the course of the season. Matt LaFleur had to restrain himself at press conferences from ripping the young receivers because they were all clearly good but weren’t always on their marks in terms of timing and route depth. Wicks was an offender at times this season but by the end of the year with more time on task, he was one of the cleanest and crispiest members of the receiver room. Wicks cleared the 69th percentile in success rate vs. man and press coverage. That’s where he really shined. His 72.2% success rate vs. man coverage is a critical number and also improved throughout his sample. I talk about this often but wide receivers who clear 70% success rate vs. man coverage early on in their careers are excellent bets. Wicks is among that group."

Fantasy managers should want a piece of the Green Bay offense. It finished 12th in points and 11th in total yards. Its passing offense was 12th in yards and third in touchdowns. That was with Jordan Love in his first season as the starter and a bunch of young pass-catchers in either their first or second season. They're all only going to get better.

The problem is that there are so many quality players, which makes it difficult to determine which one comes out on top and, in that case, take the cheapest. That's Wicks. He could legitimately end up as Love's No. 1 target. He's tied to an elite quarterback, an elite play-caller is super cheap, and is part of an ambiguous group of pass-catchers. That's a buy all day long.

Ja'Lynn Polk and Javon Baker, New England Patriots

Be prepared to embrace the unknown fully. We have two rookie receivers, a rookie quarterback, and a brand-new offensive coordinator. However, we cannot ignore affordability and potential. Polk is being drafted as the WR75 and Baker as the WR81 on Underdog. On Yahoo, they’re going as the WR74 and WR82, respectively. These guys are free.

We know nothing about Drake Maye, Polk, or Baker as NFL players, but we know a little about Alex Van Pelt, the Patriots’ new offensive coordinator. He’s been the Browns offensive coordinator since 2020. In his four seasons with Cleveland, his teams have finished between 10th and 20th in points scored, with an average of 15.5. They’ve also finished between 14th and 18th in total yards, with an average of 16. Essentially, his offenses have always been league average.

His passing offenses have averaged 554 pass attempts, 3,554 yards, and 23 touchdowns. He had one good year from Baker Mayfield, one bad year from Mayfield, and then a combination of Jacoby Brissett, Deshaun Watson, Joe Flacco, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and P.J. Walker. He’s never really had good quarterback play, but he’s still been able to generate average offenses.

The main selling point for Baker and Polk is simple: What if they’re good? What if Maye is good? What if Maye is really good? We won’t know the answer to those questions anytime soon, but we should embrace that possibility and that unknown. Maye was the No. 3 overall pick for a reason. Does that guarantee success? It doesn’t, but we’re still discussing a good prospect. He was extremely productive in North Carolina, and if the No. 3 overall pick ends up being good or even really good, will anyone be surprised? Absolutely not! At least, they shouldn’t be.

Last season, Ezekiel Elliott, Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, DeVante Parker, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mike Gesicki, Tyquan Thornton, Jalen Reagor, Pharaoh Brown, Ty Montgomery, and Kayshon Boutte combined to have 408 targets, 261 receptions, 2,532 yards, and 16 touchdowns. How many of those players are good? How many are average? How many are below average? How many are bad?

There is just so much opportunity in New England this season. Both rookies will have the chance to become Maye’s No. 1 option in the passing game. Polk would be my preferred target simply due to his NFL Draft capital. He was selected early in the second round, whereas Baker wasn’t picked until the 10th pick of Round 4.

However, both players are free, so why not roll the dice? What if Maye is better than we thought, and Polk is good, too? Or what if Maye is good and Baker is, too? Embrace the unknown. We may not know anything about these two receivers as NFL players yet, but we're not completely in the dark. Polk's Reception Perception Profile had plenty of positives, specifically this:

"You get a good glimpse of Polk playing many different roles in college. He took 60.6% of his sampled snaps outside but traveled into the slot for a healthy 35.8% and was in the backfield as a pre-snap motion option for 3.6%. He was on the line for 52.9% of his snaps and off the line for 47.1%. Polk has the necessary success rates to project him to those multiple roles. His 68.5% success rate vs. man isn’t eye-popping but it’s in a reasonable range. You can say the same for his 69.2% success rate vs. press. Polk doesn’t have the early burst in his routes to gain easy quick separation, but he has good build-up speed that gets him open against man coverage. Those are the types of scores you want to see if you need him to hack it outside occasionally in the pros. Where Polk really shines is against zone coverage. Hsi 83.5% success rate vs. zone beats out several prospects projected to go higher than him in late April. In fact, among receivers sampled from this class, only his teammate Rome Odunze has a better success rate vs. zone coverage. I love the way Polk diagnoses zones. He works leverages well and knows when to bend routes over a hole in the zone or cross over a defender in the middle of the field. That build-up speed mentioned above sneaks up on defenders and he can rip up downfield coverage unexpectedly."

The New England Patriots drafted two WRs I ranked as “priority Day 2” options this year in Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker.

Both had some strong indicators in their #ReceptionPerception profiles and should complement each other from a skill-set and deployment perspective. I like… pic.twitter.com/ZW2NaS5gk8

— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) April 27, 2024

As for Baker, Matt Harmon had plenty of good things to say about him, as you can see below. Based on their glowing Reception Perception and quality advanced statistics from their collegiate careers, it seems likely that one of these two receivers will hit. The better bet is on Polk, given his draft capital. The only thing fantasy managers need is to pick the right one, and for Maye, the No. 3 overall pick in this year's NFL Draft is to be good. Certainly doesn't seem so far-fetched, does it?

"His success rate vs. man and zone coverage scores are even more impressive when you see he ran a nine route on an absurd 35.6% of his sampled routes. That’s wild. The vast majority of prospects charted this past season were below 20%. Baker was used as a clear downfield threat and still showed out well in terms of separating at all levels. Baker’s 78.3% success vs. press is the most impressive note from his profile. He didn’t see nearly the volume of attempts as some of the top prospects in the class but still, he ranks third behind Rome Odunze and Marvin Harrison Jr. in success rate vs. press. When that was the assignment, he executed with precision. Baker’s success rates on the vertical routes like the post, nine, corner and out route were excellent. I’m confident in his ability to translate into a viable vertical weapon early in his NFL career. He shows he can stack defenders on the outside and snap off routes at the stem to earn space deep. He also tracks the ball well down the field and works with erratic vertical passers. He saw a contested target on 34.9% of his sampled looks and hauled in nearly 70%. Those weren’t easy chances, either, given how he was deployed."

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos

The argument for Franklin is the same argument for Polk and Baker. Franklin is being drafted as the WR58 on Underdog and WR69 on Yahoo. He's another player whose cost of admission is very reasonable -- due to the fear of the unknown.

The Broncos are likely starting rookie quarterback Bo Nix. He was selected at No. 12 overall. Will anyone be surprised if the No. 12th overall pick ends up being good? We shouldn't be! Not really, but the unknown is scary. It's also true that rookies can sometimes need a year or two to adjust, but that risk is already baked into Franklin's price. There are also plenty of rookies who are good from Day 1 and plenty more rookies who end up being quality starters over the second half of the season.

Denver has plenty of opportunity for a pass-catcher, too. Its No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 most-targeted players were all running backs. Javonte Williams, Samaje Perine, and Jaleel McLaughlin combined for 150 targets, 128 receptions, 843 yards, and four touchdowns. If one team desperately needs a pass-catcher to emerge this offseason, it's the Broncos because as bad as it is to have your No. 3, No. 4, and No. 5 most-targeted players be running backs, it gets worse.

Their No. 2 most-targeted player was Jerry Jeudy. He's no longer on the team. He finished with 87 targets, 54 receptions, 758 yards, and two touchdowns. That brings us to Courtland Sutton. Sutton finished with 90 targets, 59 receptions, 772 yards, and 10 touchdowns. Outside of those double-digit touchdowns, Sutton left a lot to be desired. Check out some of his efficiency stats below:

• 20.3% target share (38th among receivers)
• 20.2% target rate (49th)
• 1.73 yards per route run (41st)
• 8.6 yards per target (37th)
• 13.1 yards per reception (46th)
• 1.61 yards per team pass attempt (35th)
• 41.1% route win rate (89th)
• 26.3% win rate vs man coverage (106th)
• 2.6 YAC/Reception (70th)
• 6.7% drop rate (10th highest)

Sutton wasn't exactly good last season. Despite playing in 16 games, being healthy throughout the year, and operating as his team's No. 1 receiver, Sutton finished 43rd in targets, 44th in receptions, and 37th in yards. At this stage of his career, he's best viewed as a No. 2 receiver in the NFL. He's borderline undraftable for fantasy because it's hard to see a true ceiling in his outcome. He finished with 10 touchdowns and was still just a borderline WR3 for fantasy purposes.

Denver's environment is ripe for another pass-catcher to come in and become Nix's No. 1 pass-catcher. Who better than Troy Franklin, who was no better than Nix's No. 1 pass-catcher in college?

Troy Franklin

⁃ 4-star recruit (96 Prospect Grade)

⁃ 1 of 3 early-declare WR’s in this class to post 3.00+ YPRR in a season (the others being MHJ & Nabers)

⁃ Also posted 61/891/9 (2.34 YPRR) as a sophomore

⁃ 4.41 40, 39” vertical

⁃ Projected RD1 pick

I’m seeing far too… pic.twitter.com/q0NPFqty55

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) March 4, 2024

Franklin's fall to the fourth round was incredibly surprising, given some of his collegiate numbers, early declare status, and strong 9.02 RAS (relative athletic score). Before the NFL Draft, Franklin was widely viewed as a second-round prospect. Fantasy managers must adjust their opinion of him because draft capital carries a lot of weight. However, given his strong advanced metrics from college and a solid film assessment from Reception Perception, there are plenty of reasons to remain positive.

Pop Quiz for you all:

When you see this success rate tree what kind of receiver archetype do you think of? pic.twitter.com/czHnjGR513

— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) April 18, 2024

That was Franklin's Reception Perception Profile, which shows a player who can win on various routes. Given the wide openness in Denver's pass-catching room, betting on a talent like Franklin is a good bet. It's made even better by the cheap cost of admission. If Nix is better than expected and their college chemistry can translate to the pros, Franklin could end up providing a strong positive return on your investment.

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