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Jorden Hill highlights which fantasy football wide receivers have increased value in standard leagues compared to PPR formats heading into the 2024 NFL season.
With the 2024 NFL preseason set to kick off in less than a month, your fantasy football drafts are likely just around the corner. Best ball and dynasty drafts occur throughout the year and are plenty of fun, but there is nothing quite like the excitement and unpredictability of redraft home leagues.
As the game of fantasy football has evolved, many redraft leagues have transitioned from standard to half PPR or PPR scoring. Still, some gamers prefer the simplicity of standard formats, which only award points for touchdowns and yards. While the scoring is objectively simpler, there is just as much strategy involved in drafting a dominant fantasy team in standard leagues as in PPR formats.
When I was considering players who are more appealing in standard than in PPR, the first name that came to mind was Mike Evans. Although in many ways Evans is exactly the type of receiver that should be prioritized in standard but faded in PPR leagues, I ultimately decided to exclude him from this list. He is currently being drafted as a mid-WR2 despite finishing as the WR7 in PPR last year, so I would happily draft Evans in any format. The receivers listed below are known for explosive plays and are sure to deliver some week-winning performances but have a high likelihood of disappointing fantasy managers in PPR leagues.
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Nico Collins, Houston Texans
Following two underwhelming seasons to begin his professional career, Nico Collins enjoyed a massive breakout in 2023 as the favorite target of rookie sensation C.J. Stroud. Collins ranked among the NFL's top-10 receivers in total yards and yards per reception while striking paydirt eight times, earning himself a contract extension that makes him one of the highest-paid wideouts in the league.
Compensation update: Texans and WR Nico Collins agreed to a three-year, $72.75 million extension with a max value of $75 million that includes $52 million guaranteed. The deal was negotiated and confirmed by Drew Rosenhaus, Ryan Matha and Jason Rosenhaus. https://t.co/0bPRUQll10
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) May 28, 2024
The 25-year-old should continue to build on his existing chemistry with Stroud in 2024 and bring a heavy dose of explosiveness to Houston's offense. At 6-foot-4, Collins is by far the biggest target in the Texans receiver room and should once again see opportunities in the red zone in what projects to be a high-powered offense. This makes him an ideal fantasy draft selection in standard scoring.
In PPR formats, however, there are reasons to be concerned. Tank Dell should be healthy to start the year following an impressive rookie season that was unfortunately cut short by an injury. Dell garnered just six fewer targets and tallied three fewer receptions than Collins throughout the nine contests they appeared in together last year. And, of course, Dell won't be the only source of competition for Collins in 2024.
The Texans acquired four-time Pro Bowler Stefon Diggs from the Bills this offseason. There are a number of fans and analysts who believe Diggs is past his prime, but according to Houston's backup quarterback Case Keenum, the 30-year-old "hasn't lost a step." As one of the league's elite route runners, Diggs has earned the second-most targets in the NFL since 2020.
Even if Diggs regresses a bit, he is all but guaranteed to command a sizable share of looks from Stroud as the experienced leader in an otherwise youthful receiving corps. He and Dell will undoubtedly take away from the volume Collins would need to score as a top-tier PPR option, but don't be shy about snagging the big-play machine that is Collins in standard leagues.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the poor quarterback play in Pittsburgh over the past two years, George Pickens has made a name for himself as a human highlight reel. Whether the blame is placed on the Steelers' dysfunctional offense or Pickens' inability to separate at a high level, the 23-year-old failed to deliver in two major receiving categories last season: receptions and touchdowns.
Pickens excelled from an efficiency standpoint, however. His 18.1 yards per reception led all NFL players, and when you consider the fact that Pittsburgh totaled just 13 passing touchdowns, his five scores don't look so bad. With Diontae Johnson now out of town and Russell Wilson taking over under center, Pickens appears primed for a huge 2024.
George Pickens played four full games w/o Diontae Johnson last season (per game stats):
- 4.3 receptions
- 89.3 yards
- 8.3 targets
- 28% target sharePer @rotounderworld, Pickens was just 61st among WRs in catchable target rate last season while Courtland Sutton, Russell…
— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) June 1, 2024
Given just how thin the Steelers are at wide receiver right now, it's absolutely plausible that Pickens' target share skyrockets this season. The WR2 role is entirely up for grabs, with third-round rookie Roman Wilson, Van Jefferson, and Calvin Austin III the leading candidates currently on the roster. Still, this doesn't make Pickens a lock to see 130+ targets. Keep in mind that Pittsburgh hired Arthur Smith as its offensive coordinator this offseason. As Tennessee's OC in 2019 and 2020, the Titans ranked top-3 in rushing play percentage.
Pickens has room to grow as a route runner as he has not yet proven to be the archetype of receiver that can earn and sustain a large volume of targets. This, combined with the Steelers' much improved but still questionable offensive personnel, may hold him back as a PPR asset. His abilities as a field-stretching playmaker are a perfect match with his new QB1, though, so fantasy managers in standard leagues can bank on an abundance of yardage and hope for an increase in touchdowns.
Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers
With Jordan Love currently being drafted as a top-12 fantasy quarterback, it's pretty remarkable that Green Bay doesn't have a single pass-catcher going in the first five rounds. Love and the Packers proved last season that they could be successful without a clear-cut WR1, and fantasy managers seem to think this trend will continue in 2024.
If any of the team's wideouts are to take a leap this year, the favorite to do so would be Jayden Reed, but it wasn't too long ago that Christian Watson was viewed as the Packers receiver with the most upside. Watson has struggled with injuries but has made a habit of finding the end zone when on the field.
Top-50 fantasy WRs who had 25%+ of their production come from touchdowns in 2023:
Courtland Sutton (32% PPR points from TDs)
Christian Watson (30%)
Brandin Cooks (28%)
Mike Evans (28%)
Romeo Doubs (28%)
Jordan Addison (27%)
Tank Dell (25%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 4, 2024
Although Watson has appeared in just 23 games over the past two seasons, he has scored a total of 14 touchdowns. Five of his 28 receptions in 2023 resulted in six points. Additionally, he has averaged an impressive 14.97 yards per reception thus far in his career. He is not likely to rack up 120 targets or catch 90 balls but has already proved he can be efficient with his opportunities.
In short, Watson does not need to emerge as the top dog in Green Bay this season to produce in standard fantasy leagues. The Packers offense could be even better in Love's second full campaign as a starter and Watson is sure to be on the receiving end of an ample number of chunk plays. He could be considered a risky selection due to his injury history, but the risk is worth taking in the eighth or ninth round of drafts.
Gabe Davis, Jacksonville Jaguars
About this time two years ago, the hype for Gabe Davis was completely out of control. At just 23 years old, Davis was fresh off an unforgettable playoff performance in which he came down with eight catches for 201 yards and a record-setting four touchdowns. Many believed he would carry this momentum into the 2022-2023 season.
In some ways, he did. Davis posted career highs in targets, receptions, yardage, and yards per reception. His seven touchdowns weren't single-handedly winning any fantasy leagues, but the number is not bad at all for a player operating within the same offense as prime Stefon Diggs. He finished as a low-end WR2 in standard scoring.
Last season, Davis regressed in nearly every statistical category despite suiting up for an additional game. He moved on from the Bills to sign a three-year, $39 million contract with the Jaguars back in March. Of course, LSU product Brian Thomas Jr. was drafted in the first round of April's draft, but there are plenty of targets to go around in Jacksonville.
Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones had 200 targets last year and the Jaguars replaced them with Brian Thomas Jr. and Gabe Davis. The opportunity is much nicer than I realized for Brian Thomas Jr.
— Jason Moore (@jasonffl) May 4, 2024
Even if a healthy Christian Kirk and Thomas are Trevor Lawrence's go-to receivers this season, Davis can continue to be the field-stretching outside option that he was in Buffalo. The knock on Davis has always been that he cannot earn targets on a consistent basis, but the Jaguars gave him $24 million guaranteed for a reason.
Davis has finished top 10 in yards per catch every season of his career. I don't believe it's wild to think that he can finish as a fantasy WR3 this year, yet his average draft position is in the 13th round. He is the embodiment of a post-hype sleeper and the perfect player to take a flyer on in standard leagues.
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