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This post was originally featured on Rotoback
Antonio Brown's ADP Makes Him Overvalued in 2014
Just like my article on Alshon Jeffery being slightly undervalued, this is another Rotoballer debate turned article. The conversation about Antonio Brown was a real back and forth with a RotoBaller writer adamant that Brown was worth a top pick due to his lack of competition for targets; he pointed to Brown's career statistics as evidence of his ability to perform up to par. I thought the research I found was worth sharing, so let's take a look at Antonio Brown can do for you.
One of my biggest arguments against Antonio Brown is his lack of Redzone targets. Every year players TD's will fluctuate back and forth but having the opportunity to get targets in that area of the field gives you the ability to be consistent. Last year, Antonio Brown had one target inside the the 5 yard line, and four targets inside the 10. In comparison, Keenan Allen had five Redzone targets inside the 5 yard line, and eight inside the 10. It's not an aberration for Brown either, last year he had 2 targets inside the 5 yard line and 4 targets inside the 10. Most of his red zone targets last year came from 20 yards out, where he had 19 targets, which is on par with Keenan Allen who had 20.
Then there's the case of what really makes Antonio Brown overvalued at as the eighth WR off the board with a current ADP of 25: his height. 5'10 is not a good number for a Wide Receiver who you're drafting as your WR1. Take a look here and you'll see thatin the history of the NFL only 17 players have ever been 5'10 or shorter and finished with more than 1200 yards and 6 total touchdowns, much more modest numbers than Antonio Brown's 1500 yards and 8 touchdowns from last year. Of those 17 players, only 4 have ever done it more than once. That's in the history of the NFL.
To backtrack for a minute though, I'm not saying you shouldn't draft Antonio Brown. I do believe in his talent and I believe he is a worthwhile player for your roster, but I also believe he will not repeat his historic performance from last year. He is more likely to finish in the 8-16 range of WRs than 1-8 this year, so adjust your draft board accordingly and don't reach for Brown at 25th overall if players like Alshon Jeffery, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Andre Ellington or Zac Stacy are on the board.
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