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Who should I start or sit for fantasy football in Week 7 of the 2023 season? Andrew Ball identifies potential fantasy football busts and duds to avoid for this upcoming week.
"Bye-nado" Part 1 is here. Six teams are taking the week off. Plus, with injuries mounting (see: Christian McCaffrey, Kyren Williams, David Montgomery, and more), fantasy managers need to get creative with roster decisions to field a winning lineup.
That could mean that managers may have no choice but to start players listed as potential busts this week. Benches may be filled with players without projections.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 7, make sure potential fantasy landmines stay on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 7 of the NFL season.
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Kirk Cousins vs. San Francisco
It takes two to complete a pass, and Justin Jefferson's absence is making passing much harder for Kirk Cousins.
In the first three games of the 2023 season, Captain Kirk never dipped below 344 passing yards. In the following three games, he's totaled just 604 passing yards. His touchdown rate, yards per attempt, and yards per completion have all tumbled (although he did have Jefferson for one complete game in Week 4).
| Kirk Cousins | Weeks 1-3 (Avg.) | Weeks 4-6 (Avg.) |
| Completions | 32 | 20.66 |
| Yards | 358.33 | 201.33 |
| Touchdowns | 3 | 1.66 |
It's not that Cousins lacks weapons outside of Jefferson. T.J. Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn are all very capable receivers. They're just exponentially better when the defense is focusing their game plan on one of the best wideouts in football. The running game is nonexistent. Minnesota rushes for the third-fewest yards per game. Without an effective run game, there's no fooling defenses with the play-action passing game.
Cousins couldn't get it done against Chicago (8.7 fantasy points). Next up, he hosts the San Francisco 49ers in a prime time affair. In 12 Monday night appearances in his career, Cousins is 2-10 with a 17-to-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio and averages nearly 30 yards fewer than his career average. The 49ers' defense is allowing just 9.9 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
If you've been riding Cousins to begin the season, it's time to find a streaming candidate. Sam Howell, Geno Smith, and Jordan Love are better options for Week 7.
Alexander Mattison vs. San Francisco
The same argument can be made against running back Alexander Mattison. In his first year atop the depth chart, Mattison is 14th in the league in rush attempts but 18th in yards on the ground. Only Josh Jacobs and Dameon Pierce are averaging fewer yards per carry among running backs with 80 carries. Mattison's yards per carry dropped to 2.44 against a beatable Chicago run defense without Jefferson on the field.
The San Francisco defense is slightly worse against the run than they are against the pass. However, the Niners are nearly a touchdown road favorite and the game may not even be that close. Mattison will likely need to break a screen pass from the red zone to score in this contest. With all the injuries and bye weeks, Mattison is still ranked as a low-end RB2.
Jonathan Taylor / Zack Moss vs. Cleveland
Fantasy managers rostering Jonathan Taylor are waiting for that breakout game. His snap percentages did jump from 15 to 42 percent in his second game back from injury. But he rushed just eight times for 19 yards. That was one more carry than Zack Moss received, but Moss scored the lone touchdown on the ground. Moss was also on the field for six more snaps.
If you are coach Shane Steichen, it's hard to make an argument that Taylor should be playing more snaps the Moss. Sure, the former rushing champion is making a lot more money than Moss and has proven in his career to be a better running back. But the "backup" is averaging just under five yards per carry and positioned himself as the RB3 since Week 2 (when he played his first game).
I expect this to remain a split backfield, at least in the immediate future. It doesn't help that the Colts are hosting the Cleveland Browns, who have only faced eight red zone touches to running backs this season. If you're counting on a Taylor touchdown, the odds aren't in your favor. Taylor is a low-end RB2 in Week 7. Moss is a high-end RB3.
Rachaad White vs. Atlanta
He's back!
For the third time this season (and second consecutive week), Rachaad White is a bust candidate. In just five games, he's played the three-toughest defenses against opposing running backs. Next on the docket is the team ranked fourth, the Atlanta Falcons.
The second-year back is averaging 3.31 yards per carry on the season and has topped four yards per tote in just one game. That was in his one positive matchup, Week 2 against the Chicago Bears. That was also his only start-worthy fantasy performance.
It's been a brutal draw for White but the Buccaneers may be getting frustrated with the lack of efficiency. Backup Ke'Shawn Vaughn was given six carries against Detroit, compared to seven for White.
Better games should be on the way for White once he stops seeing brick walls ahead of him. Be patient with the former third-round pick but keep him on your bench this week.
Najee Harris at Los Angeles Rams
Prior to the Steelers' Week 5 contest (and subsequent bye week), Najee Harris was listed here as a potential bust. It was noted that backup Jaylen Warren had outscored Harris in PPR formats in the first four weeks. That did not change in Week 5.
Harris is averaging under 50 rushing yards per game and isn't on the field for many third-down snaps. If the rushing production isn't there and he's not getting high-value touches on passing downs, then what value does Harris have? The conundrum is that managers can't cut him. He's still receiving enough touches to be on fantasy rosters. But they don't want to start him, either. That's dead weight.
The matchup this week against the Los Angeles Rams isn't overly difficult. They're ranked in the bottom 10 in points allowed to running backs on the season but allowed D'Andre Swift, Christian McCaffrey, and Joe Mixon to top 14 PPR points. Still, it's hard to view Harris as anything more than a flex with a low ceiling this week.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Green Bay
In honor of Halloween: "I want to play a game."
Which receiver leads in targets, receptions, and yards per game, Adam Thielen or Jerry Jeudy? It's Thielen, and it's not particularly close. The veteran is averaging over eight catches and 84.8 yards per game. Jeudy is averaging about half of what Thielen gets; four catches and 44.4 yards per game.
Which receiver leads in receiving success rate and catch rate, Adam Thielen or Jerry Jeudy? Thielen is logging a 67.8% success rate and an absurd 83.1% catch rate (both career-high marks). Only four wideouts have a higher catch rate than Thielen. One of them is a Bronco but it's Marvin Mims Jr., not Jeudy. The ex-Alabama receiver has a 69% catch rate and a success rate all the way down at 41.4%.
| Stat | Adam Thielen | Jerry Jeudy |
| Yards Per Game | 84.8 | 44.4 |
| Receptions Per Game | 8.2 | 4 |
| Success Rate | 67.8% | 41.4% |
| Catch Rate | 83.1% | 69% |
| Yards Per Reception | 10.4 | 11.1 |
The only major stat that Jeudy trumps Thielen in is yards per reception (11.1 to 10.4). Why are the Panthers rumored to be interested in Jeudy? Outside of being a former first-round pick, he's done nothing of note to prove that he's an alpha wide receiver. He's playing with arguably a more talented quarterback than Thielen and yet he's averaging fewer PPR fantasy points per game than D.J. Chark Jr. and Green Bay rookie Jayden Reed.
Speaking of Green Bay, that's who Jeudy will line up against on Sunday. Jaire Alexander remains one of the best coverage corners in football and the Packers are far more susceptible to the run game. The Broncos boast a trio of capable running backs and will need to use all three if they hope to win the game. With limited production so far and possibly few opportunities against the Packers' secondary, Jeudy is a sit this week.
Zach Evans vs. Pittsburgh
Zach Evans is the "Don't Buy The Hype" pick of the Week 7 slate.
As of this writing, Evans is the most added player on Sleeper following the injuries to Kyren Williams (ankle) and Ronnie Rivers (knee). In theory, he's next in line to receive backfield touches. The Rams' plethora of transactions says otherwise.
Veteran Royce Freeman was elevated from the practice squad. Darrell Henderson, a former RB1 in this offense, took his place on the practice squad. They also added Myles Gaskin to their active roster, poaching him from the Minnesota practice squad. Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell is a disciple of Sean McVay, so Gaskin has a familiarity with the offense already.
The truth is that not a single person, except maybe McVay, knows who is getting the majority of the touches this week. It could be any of the four. Just because Evans was the one already on the active roster does not mean it's his job to take.
Just like Emari Demercado last week, take a wait-and-see approach with the Rams' backfield before inserting one of them into starting lineups.
Josh Downs vs. Cleveland
Gardner Minshew has targeted Josh Downs 11 times in a game and a half since filling in for the injured Anthony Richardson. The rookie also caught the first touchdown of his career in Week 6. His 28 catches on the season are third amongst rookies, behind Puka Nacua and Zay Flowers. He’s scored 13 fantasy points or more in three of his last four games. Fellow Colts wideout Alec Pierce is dealing with a shoulder injury, which may allow Downs to see the field in two-receiver sets.
The matchup gets significantly tougher in Week 7. The Cleveland Browns allow the fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, the fewest passing yards, and the fifth-fewest points per game. 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was receiving future MVP accolades until he headed to Cleveland and had the worst game of his career. Minshew can be reckless with the football and the Indianapolis offense is not as fine-tuned as San Francisco.
The good news is that Downs was likely added off of the waiver wire within the last few weeks. Therefore, fantasy managers should have other options already on their roster to work with. Keep Downs on the bench in this matchup.
Jameson Williams at Baltimore
Jameson Williams came through in Week 6 when he kind of lucked into a long touchdown pass. The second-year receiver seemingly had trouble locating the football until the last second. But a 45-yard touchdown is a 45-yard touchdown either way.
However, Williams is, at best, the fourth option in the Detroit passing game. Wideout Amon-Ra St. Brown and tight end Sam LaPorta are in the top tier. Josh Reynolds is on the next level. Kalif Raymond and Marvin Jones Jr. are also involved. The latter outsnapped Williams against Tampa Bay.
In fact, Williams was on the field for under a quarter of the Lions' offensive snaps in Week 6. He's a part-time player right now. Yes, he could catch another long touchdown and come through for fantasy managers in Week 7. But he could also earn just one target while playing minimal snaps.
D.J. Moore / Cole Kmet vs. Las Vegas
The entire aerial attack is a big question mark for Chicago. It appears as though the Bears are planning to start an undrafted rookie out of Divison II Shepard at quarterback.
Tyson Bagent did lead Chicago to the end zone in the second half against Minnesota last week (which included two long passes to Moore) but it's difficult to trust an undrafted rookie who has played a half of professional football. Moore should remain in your starting lineup. Rule number one in fantasy football is to not sit your studs. The ex-Panther is, after all, the WR8 on the season but there is some bust potential here.
The same can't be said for Cole Kmet. The tight end did not receive a single target from Bagent once the latter entered the game. The Raiders, despite the reputation of being a poor defense, are improving and allowing the eighth-fewest passing yards per game. At least one of these receiving options won't live up to projections this week. Take the shot on Luke Musgrave (Denver allows the most points to tight ends) or Kyle Pitts/Jonnu Smith instead.
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