Fantasy Football Warning Signals for Week 2: Tom Brady, Najee Harris, Christian Kirk

This is only the second week of fantasy football, but every lineup decision is important to your team’s success. You either want to change your fortunes from last week if you lost or keep the success train rolling if you won your first match-up

Roster moves are important even this early in the season. Monitoring the matchups to make sure there are no warning signals telling us about potential problems with key players in our lineup. We can’t ignore the warning signs of bad matchups and too many underperforming players each week will lead to more losses than wins in the long run.

Let’s look at some players you should think twice about putting in your lineup in Week Two.

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Quarterback Concerns - Sit ‘Em for Week 2?

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

This match-up will likely limit Brady’s ability to give us what we need in fantasy. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers travel to New Orleans to play the Saints. The game has an over/under of 44 with the Buccaneers installed as a three-point road favorite.

Historically, the Saints have owned Brady. He has a passer rating of 71.5 and a 6-8 touchdown to interception ratio in regular-season games against the Saints. In fact, Brady has not won a regular season game (he did beat them in the playoffs) against the Saints since coming to Tampa. The last time they played, in December 2021, the Saints won 9-0. In that game, Brady was 26-of-48, 214 yards, with one interception, and four sacks. His total QBR was 18.5. It was the first time Brady was held scoreless since 2006.

Last week, the Buccaneers attempted 27 passes. That was the fourth-lowest number of attempts for the week. Brady completed 18 passes for 212 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. Mike Evans was the most targeted receiver (7). Chris Godwin left the game at the end of the first half with a hamstring injury. His status for Week 2 is uncertain. The Evans versus Marcus Lattimore matchup has not been good for Evans and no big, bodied Rob Gronkowski this season leaves Brady with one less reliable target.

What To Do

You can stubbornly play Brady and hope that the outcome this time is different. Or you can pick up Matt Ryan off the waiver wire. This week Ryan and the Indianapolis Colts will play the Jacksonville Jaguars. Last week the Jaguars gave up 313 passing yards and four touchdowns to Carson Wentz.

Running Back Concerns - Sit ‘Em for Week 2?

Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers

Harris suffered a Lisfranc sprain during preseason. Harris was on the field for only 59% of the offensive snaps in Week 1. He aggravated the injury in the second half and it forced him to sit out the overtime period. For the game, he had 10 rushing attempts and averaged only 2.3 yards per carry. He was targeted only twice for two receptions, three receiving yards, and a touchdown. Quarterback Mitchell Trubisky had only 38 passing attempts even as the Steelers played a full extra period in OT.

This week the Steelers play the New England Patriots. In their loss to the Miami Dolphins last week, the Patriots held running backs Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert to a combined 17 rushing attempts, 41 rushing yards, and five receptions with 56 receiving yards.

What To Do

Harris is expected to play. The first thing to do is to stay informed about whether the Steelers will place Harris on a snap count. You can also go to the waiver wire and pick up Jeff Wilson Jr. of the San Francisco 49ers or Jamaal Williams of the Detroit Lions.

Last week Williams had four goal-line carries converting two into touchdowns. If you want a more ‘reliable’ option Jeff Wilson of the San Francisco 49ers is an option. Elijah Mitchell is out for approximately four weeks with a knee injury.

The 49ers are a run-first team. Last week they ran the ball the second most (55.22%) and tied for the third-most rushing attempts per game (37). If you can stomach Kyle Shanahan’s complete disrespect to your fantasy team, Wilson is the presumptive next man up in San Francisco. After Mitchell’s injury last week Wilson was on the field for a 76% snap rate.

Wide Receiver Concerns - Sit Em Week 2?

Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars

Kirk was a monster last week. He was on the field for 91.42% of the offensive snaps. He tied for the team lead with nine targets and 42 routes ran (tied with Zay Jones) and he led the team with 117 receiving yards on six catches.

If you are in a PPR league sitting Kirk is next to impossible because of the potential volume play. But this week you should probably be cautious. Kirk ran most of his routes out of the slot. That means this week he will be matched up against slot cornerback Kenny Moore. PFF ranked Moore as the number one slot cornerback heading into the 2022 season. Last season Moore collected 102 total tackles, six tackles for loss, four interceptions, 13 passes defended, a sack, and a forced fumble.

Kirk is clearly going to be a major part of this passing game, but will also be identified by Indianapolis as one of the main offensive threats to neutralize as well. So just understand the risk involved here with a player who we only have a one-game sample of with their new team and a potentially much tougher match-up.

What To Do

Kenny Moore left last week’s game with a hip injury. Monitor his status he left practice early Wednesday. If Moore is unable to play, Kirk’s warning label is reduced to "proceed with caution". You can also consider picking up Zay Jones in deeper leagues. Jones was rostered in 1.1% of ESPN leagues. Last week he was on the field for 84.28% of the offensive snaps, while still running the same amount of routes and having the same amount of targets as Kirk.

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