Projecting Fantasy Football Values for 2023 NFL Rookies - Sleepers, Busts, Targets, Avoids

With the 2023 NFL Draft finally in the books, now that we know all the prospects' landing spots, we can begin to evaluate what kind of fantasy football value they’ll have in this upcoming season. While we tend to get really excited about rookies, everything needs to be kept in perspective. For example, as high as you might be on Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jordan Addison, remember that Chris Olave finished as the WR26 in half-PPR PPG, Garrett Wilson was the WR34, and Drake London was the WR49. Just something to keep in mind. It’s hard for rookies to be true impact fantasy football players in year one!

Running backs have an easier pathway to success if they can find themselves in a high-volume situation, but a lot of the time, it takes a little time for all the rookies to find their way. Unfortunately, fantasy managers didn’t get a ton of great landing spots in this year’s NFL draft, at least not for the 2023 fantasy football redraft leagues.

Here, we’re going to be splitting the rookies up into multiple categories to determine their 2023 fantasy football value in half-PPR scoring leagues. These categories will include Week 1 Top-24 starters, looking specifically at running backs and wide receivers. Who will find themselves immediately ranked as an RB2 or WR2 or higher? Another category will be the Week 1 flex starter and the Boom or Bust starter. These will be our flex players that can be started immediately more so in the RB3 and WR3 range. Two other categories will be “second half flex” and “second half starter”. Here, we’ll be identifying the players who should be expected to start quietly but have bigger second halves, and then we’ll be differentiating between the two with starters and flex-quality players. We’ll be looking at the TE2 streamer with upside category and the “backups with upside” category. If a rookie is not listed, chances are they won’t be fantasy relevant this season. We’ll be skipping the quarterback class for this article. Let’s get started. Please be sure to use promo code "BOOM" for 10% off of any premium purchase.

• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Week 1 Top-24 Starter at RB or WR

Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons

Truth be told, fantasy managers got arguably the best landing spot for the best overall player. I know, I know, the Falcons weren’t good on offense, right? Or were they? They surprisingly finished 15th in points scored believe it or not. More importantly, however, Atlanta finished first in rushing attempts, third in rushing yards, and 10th in rushing touchdowns.

Last year, Atlanta’s running back group was largely made up of Tyler Allgeier, a fifth-round rookie, Cordarelle Patterson, a ten-year veteran who just started playing RB exclusively in 2021, and Caleb Huntley, an undrafted rookie. Despite that those three had 506 total touches, 2,532 scrimmage yards, and 14 touchdowns. The real kicker, they should’ve scored more touchdowns too.

Allgeier had just three rushing scores despite being tied for the 10th most red zone carries and tied for 17th in carries inside the 10-yard line. So, while those numbers above look really good, just know the workload they received should’ve resulted in more touchdowns.

Bijan is a great bet to finish the season with 300 total touches and should be treated as a top-five running back. He has a range of outcomes that legitimately includes being the top overall scorer and is a virtual lock to be a top-10 fantasy running back.

Week 1 Flex Starter at RB or WR

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

When this selection was initially made, fantasy managers all over moaned and groaned. However, once D’Andre Swift was officially traded, it certainly doesn't look so bad anymore. Jahmyr Gibbs should be expected to walk into the role previously held by Swift, while newcomer David Montgomery will take over the Jamaal Williams role of 2022.

In this role, Gibbs will have more value in full-PPR leagues, but in half-PPR and standard, his value will drop. Swift received very few red zone touches last year, ranking just 25th in this category among running backs. Meanwhile, Williams finished second. It should also be noted that Swift is 212 pounds, while Gibbs weighs in at just 199, so it’s possibly, maybe even likely, Gibbs gets fewer scoring opportunities than Swift did.

Fantasy managers shouldn’t be expecting a lot of touchdowns from Gibbs in 2023 and he’s unlikely to receive more than 8-12 carries per game. He’ll make his money off of receptions, however. While this was an area Swift shined last year, the Lions will welcome back Jameson Williams this year and they drafted Sam LaPorta. There’s undoubtedly more target competition this year in Detroit compared to their 2022 roster.

The other thing to note is that Williams had just 16 targets and 12 receptions in 2022 with the Lions. For his career, he averages 33 targets and 26 catches per season. However, Montgomery had 40 targets last year and 34 receptions. In his four-year career, he’s averaged 49 targets and 39 receptions per season. He’s been a much better pass-catcher than Williams has been, so it is possible Montgomery will take on a bigger pass-catching role than Williams had last year, which would minimize Gibbs’ value.

He’s someone that could have RB2 value in full-PPR leagues, but he’s best viewed as a high-end flex in half-PPR leagues. If Montgomery were to miss time, like any backup running back, his value would soar. Fantasy managers should expect a final stat line somewhere around 170 carries for 750 yards, 75 targets, 55 catches for 465 yards, and 5 touchdowns. That equals roughly 10.2 half-PPR PPG.

Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings

Jordan Addison, without question, landed in the best fantasy football spot for any receiver in this year’s draft. With Adam Thielen leaving in free agency, there is an easy pathway for Addison to start immediately as the Vikings’ No. 2 receiver. They have K.J. Osborn, but he finished with just 90 targets, 60 receptions, and 650 yards last year. Addison shouldn’t have any problem overtaking him as the starter in two-receiver sets.

Thielen leaves behind 107 targets last year and the defense looks like it’ll likely be one of the worst units in the NFL again. That’s great for fantasy because it’ll keep the Vikings in high-scoring affairs or playing catch-up.

With Justin Jefferson on the other side of the field and T.J. Hockenson in the middle, Addison should be freed up and with little defensive attention most of the year. This will put him in a lot of single-man coverage and advantageous positions.

Kirk Cousins has three straight seasons of throwing for more than 4,200 yards and has averaged 32 touchdowns over that time. Addison should start the season ranked as a solid flex starter from day one and it wouldn’t be surprising if he ends up earning WR2 status by the second half of the season. For redraft leagues, Addison should be the first receiver off the board.

Boom or Bust Starter

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Last year, the Seahawks had three receivers on the field just under 54% of the time. It was the fifth-lowest in the NFL. The team’s primary receivers behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett were Marquise Goodwin, D’Wayne Eskridge, and Laquon Treadwell. Those three backup receivers combined (!!!) to have just 65 targets, 40 receptions, and 487 yards.

Initial Jaxon Smith-Njigba 2023 fantasy football projection

54 catches
680 yards
5 TDs

— Jeff Ratcliffe (@JeffRatcliffe) April 28, 2023

You can absolutely love Jaxon Smith-Njigba as a player, as I do, and still be able to admit this is a bad landing spot for him in 2023. JSN could take the entire workload held by those three players mentioned above, which he’ll do, and it still won’t make him fantasy relevant.

Based on the draft capital they spent to get JSN it would be completely reasonable to expect the team to run a lot more 11-personnel in 2023, but what’s a lot more look like? They could run a lot more and still be below league average. How much can we realistically expect them to change in one year? The answer is likely not as much as we need them to.

That also became a harder sell after the team selected another running back in the second round in back-to-back years, picking Zach Charbonnet out of UCLA. Pete Carroll has always wanted a strong run game and this selection makes you think he doesn’t plan on changing his offensive scheme too much, even with the addition of JSN.

It goes without saying if Metcalf or Lockett were to miss time, the former Buckeye would be a weekly WR2, but if both veteran receivers are healthy, the rookie wideout looks like he might be a boom or bust starter most of the season.

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers

Quentin Johnston is another receiver who landed in a poor spot for immediate fantasy value. That’s because the Chargers currently employ Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Joshua Palmer, and Gerald Everett.

Last year, Allen and Williams ended up missing 11 total games, and a number of other games were shortened due to injury. However, in 2021, when the duo appeared in 32 games, they combined for 286 targets, 182 receptions, 2,284 yards, and 15 touchdowns.

That year the No. 3 receiver, Jalen Guyton, finished with 48 targets, 31 receptions, 448 yards, and 3 touchdowns. The No. 4 receiver, Joshua Palmer had 49 targets, 33 receptions, 353 yards, and 4 touchdowns. If you’d combine those two, you’d have 97 targets, 64 receptions, 801 yards, and 7 touchdowns. That kind of stat line would be flex consideration, but that’s assuming Johnston takes over the No. 3 role in its entirety and leaves Palmer, who is still on the team, with nothing.

That seems very unlikely. The most likely scenario is that Allen and Williams continue to work as the team’s No. 1 and No. 2 receivers all year. Johnston and Palmer share No. 3 duties with Palmer likely working ahead of Johnston early and Johnston taking a larger role as the year progresses. Even if you give Johnston 70% of the Guyton/Palmer workload from 2021, which is optimistic, he’d have 68 targets, 45 receptions, 560 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

L.A. Chargers Updated Projections

Keenan Allen: 94 Rec, 1,030 Yards

Mike Williams: 70 Rec, 1,017 Yards

Josh Palmer: 54 Rec, 581 Yards

Quentin Johnston: 44 Rec, 578 Yards

Derius Davis: 15.6 Rec, 223 yards#BoltUp

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) April 29, 2023

That is very much a boom-or-bust player. If Williams or Allen were to miss time like they did last year, Johnston’s value would undoubtedly rise, but with Palmer on the roster, it may not mean that he walks into a full-time starting role. His landing spot for 2023 fantasy football purposes is certainly less than ideal.

Jalin Hyatt, New York Giants

Unlike the other two players in this category, Jalin Hyatt actually landed in a really good place for an immediate role and playing time. The problem with his situation isn’t his competition, but rather the offensive scheme and quarterback play.

Last year, the Giants finished 25th in pass attempts, 26th in passing yards, and 24th in passing touchdowns. The team traded for Darren Waller, signed Parris Campbell and Jamison Crowder, and brought back Sterling Shepard, Darius Slayton, and Isaiah Hodgins. They also will welcome back former second-rounder Wan’Dale Robinson who suffered a knee injury last year during his rookie season. I’m not sure about you, but that has the look of a receiver-by-committee approach.

Based on recent production and pedigree, it would seem that Waller is likely going to be Daniel Jones’ No. 1 pass-catcher. He’s the most accomplished out of the bunch, the most talented, and the best player to take on that role. Slayton and Hodgins had varying degrees of success last season, which likely means Hyatt will not be a full-time player.

However, with his speed and downfield skillset, Hyatt could become a splash play waiting to happen. The problem is he’s unlikely to get the volume he needs to be a consistent producer for fantasy managers. He’s a player who should have more appeal in best-ball leagues because of his likely boom-or-bust nature.

The depth chart in New York is fairly open, however, where fantasy managers can be optimistic he could work himself into a more regular role, but the passing volume and quarterback play are still going to keep his ceiling fairly limited and likely won’t allow him to reach weekly starter status, even as a flex.

Second-Half of the Season Flex Starter at RB or WR

Zach Evans, Los Angeles Rams

Zach Evans has been added to a running back group in Los Angeles that includes just Cam Akers and Kyren Williams. While many may have had high hopes for Akers, after a devastating injury in 2020 where he suffered a torn Achilles, some of that promise has been washed away. While Akers was not terrible last year – he finished with just over 900 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns – his overall efficiency left something to be desired. He finished with just 4.5 yards per touch, which ranked 45th among qualifying running backs. He also provided next to nothing in the passing game, finishing with just 13 receptions for 117 yards.

Akers ranked 36th among running backs in yards created per touch with a 2.53 average. Just 4.3% of his carries went for 15 yards or more, which ranked 32nd among running backs, making him more of a 3–5 yard plodder. Akers rarely broke any decently long gains. That kind of player's job certainly cannot be classified as "safe". Kyren Williams, by just about any metric was even worse than Akers, which gives Evans a clear pathway to claiming, at worst, the No. 2 running back job in Los Angeles right off the bat.

The Zach Evans Vision/Decision-Making Thread #NFLDraft #GoDeep https://t.co/uSBdFtXd6l pic.twitter.com/Vw3SmR8MQX

— Matt Waldman (@MattWaldman) March 17, 2023

By midseason, Evans could very well move ahead of Akers. Akers is in the final year of his rookie contract and if the Rams' season goes south, like it very well could, the Rams may decide they want to get a look at Evans to decide if he could be their future starter at running back and make no mistake, he's not without talent.

Evans has an extra gear that Akers doesn't seem like he can get to. He provides legit home-run potential and could be someone that gives the team a different look out of their backfield. He also profiles as arguably their best pass-catcher out of the backfield. It shouldn't be entirely surprising if he becomes the 1A in this backfield at some point in the season.

Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs

While Rashee Rice has more competition than Jordan Addison in Minnesota, it's hard not to love this landing spot. With JuJu Smith-Schuster now in New England, who becomes Patrick Mahomes' No. 2 target in Kansas City is totally up in the air. We know Travis Kelce will be his first read, but what will be the pecking order after that? We can feel confident it won't be Marquez Valdes-Scantling. He's been in the league for five years now and has never recorded a target share higher than 15% and has never finished with more than 85 targets.

That leaves Rice, Skyy Moore, and Kadarius Toney. Moore disappointed mightily as a rookie and finished with just 33 targets. He played just 28.5% of the team's snaps and while we can't completely write him off since he was a rookie, the fact that he was barely able to get on the field is certainly a red flag heading into year two. As is the fact that the team traded for Toney and drafted Rice. Not exactly a vote of confidence.

As for Toney, fantasy managers have been hoping and hoping for two years with absolutely nothing to show for it. He's looked great in spurts – very small spurts – but between injury concerns and locker room issues in New York, he hasn't been able to stay on the field. Is that something that's going to change in year three? I think the more surprising outcome would be if it did.

Brett Veach: Rashee Rice can do some of the same things JuJu Smith-Schuster did. https://t.co/nFNkAzrCv5

— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) May 1, 2023

Which gives Rice as good a chance as either one of those two. With Moore and Toney being well-versed in the Kansas City offense, along with MVS, fantasy managers shouldn't expect Rice to be a fantasy starter early in the season. However, by midseason, Rice could close the gap and become a flex-level starter. With the high passing volume in Kansas City and the best quarterback in football, Rice is in a fantastic position to make some noise down the stretch.

Jonathan Mingo, Carolina Panthers

I was really tempted to have Jonathan Mingo as my only second-half top-24 starter, but just wasn't able to pull the trigger, but I do believe that's a potential outcome for Mingo. This is a fantastic landing spot for a rookie receiver. He's going to play under new head coach Frank Reich and will catch passes from No. 1 quarterback, Bryce Young. However, the other great aspect of this landing spot is the wide-open depth chart for the Panthers.

He'll be competing with just DJ Chark and Adam Thielen. Thielen became acquainted with Father Time last year, but I suspect they'll become best buddies this year. Meanwhile, Chark looks like a one-hit wonder and isn't anything more than an MVS-type of receiver. Mingo offers elite physical tools, scoring a 9.87 on the RAS score, and is someone Reich is going to have a plan for.

Frank Reich's vision for WR Jonathan Mingo

Shallows. Crossers. Vertical routes. Ball skills.

Repeated multiple times how great of a fit he is in their offensive plan. pic.twitter.com/vDFlwc450R

— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) April 29, 2023

Mingo finished 2022 ranking 17th in broken and missed tackles per reception. He also finished eighth in yards after contact per reception at 7.5 yards. While Ole Miss chose to only line up Mingo in the slot on 39% of his snaps, that seems like his ideal home in the NFL. His twitchiness and size could be a real problem in the NFL. One of his best assets is his ability to break tackles and get yards after the catch. If he gets put in a position to do that with regularity, Mingo could be a legit top-24 receiver in the second half of the season.

Carolina should want to get the ball into his hands early and often and let him go to work. If he gets put into this type of role, he could have an Amon-Ra St. Brown-type second-half surge, lite version, of course. A lot of this will depend on how well Young comes along as a rookie, but one thing I know for certain, Thielen and Chark are not good enough to hold this kid back.

Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens

On the surface, buying into Zay Flowers as a flex starter in Baltimore might be hard to believe. After all, we're talking about the Ravens' offense, which since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2019, has the second-fewest team passing attempts in the NFL with 1,945. That's an average of just 29 attempts per game. Since that time, only the Chicago Bears have had fewer passing yards than the Ravens, who have averaged just 208.2 yards per game.

You combine those numbers with the team also employing former first-round receiver, Rashod Bateman, newly signed Odell Beckham Jr., and star tight end, Mark Andrews and I can understand how it becomes very difficult to envision Flowers getting enough volume to be a consistent flex starter. However, there are some reasons to be optimistic. For starters, the new hire of offensive coordinator, Todd Monken, who in his past has favored the pass. When you consider his history and the team's offseason moves, it would appear they're going to operate very differently than we've become accustomed to.

While Rashod Bateman has shown plenty of promise in his limited action, he's played in just 18 games and has 800 yards to show for it. While I'm still bullish on Bateman and he is someone fantasy managers should be taking swings on as well, it shouldn't be surprising if Flowers, as the season moves along, begins operating as the team's No. 1 receiver.

Fantasy managers shouldn't be concerned about OBJ, whatsoever. The last time we saw him in 2021, he averaged just 38.4 yards per game, and actually, his yardage per game was actually lower in Los Angeles than it was in Cleveland. In 2020, he averaged just 45.6 yards per game.

Andrews is going to continue operating as the team's No. 1 pass-catcher, but with the anticipated increase in passing volume, there's likely to be room for another player here to break out and become fantasy relevant. That's not going to be OBJ anymore, which leaves Bateman or Flowers. Fantasy managers should be taking swings on both.

Tight End Streamer with Upside

Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills

Since Josh Allen became Josh Allen, the No. 1 slot receiver in Buffalo has averaged 94 targets. If Dalton Kincaid were to step into that kind of role, he would’ve finished seventh last year in total targets among tight ends. This goes without saying, but a Josh Allen target is a lot more valuable than most other quarterback targets.

Brandon Beane indicated that Kincaid can do a lot of the same things Cole Beasley did for this team. Fantasy managers should not, at all, be thinking of Kincaid as a tight end for the Bills. He was drafted for what he brings as a pass-catcher. Right now, Stefon Diggs and Gabriel Davis are the team’s primary receivers. Dawson Knox will continue to operate as the traditional tight end, which leaves the slot duties up for grabs between Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, a 2022 fifth-round pick. Kincaid’s draft capital says fantasy managers should be banking on him to win that battle.

New Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid finished last season with 70 receptions.

Since 2017, Kincaid is 1 of just 4 tight ends to hit this milestone 👀

He also had more Broken + Missed tackles than anyone in the Top-30 in the same group.#BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/FEKA3WtUqF

— SIS Football (@football_sis) May 3, 2023

If Kincaid operates as Buffalo’s primary slot receiver in 2023, he’s going to be a top-12 tight end. The more likely outcome, however, is that Shakir and Kincaid share this role in some capacity, somewhat limiting Kincaid’s ceiling. Still, he’s going to be a high-end TE2 and someone that could work his way into TE1 territory by the second half of the season if he can distance himself from Shakir.

Michael Mayer, Las Vegas Raiders

This was a really good landing spot for Michael Mayer. With Darren Waller now in New York and the terrible news about Foster Moreau, Mayer seems like a virtual lock to be the team’s No. 1 tight end immediately. Last season, the Raiders tight ends combined for 101 targets, 64 catches, 827 yards, and 5 touchdowns.

The team did sign Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard, two veteran options who are likely to eat into that volume enough that it’s unlikely Mayer becomes a TE1 this season. Especially with Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow at receiver.

However, last year Derek Carr had a 9.1 intended air yard per attempt average, and the two years before it was at 8.1. Over the last three years, Jimmy Garoppolo had an intended air yard per attempt average of just 6.9 in 2022, 7.5 in 2021, and 6.3 in 2020. To put it plainly, Jimmy G has been a lot less willing to throw the ball downfield and that could result in a larger target share for the tight end position.

Still, it’s hard to envision Mayer being any higher than third on the target hierarchy in Las Vegas, and that pretty much caps any tight end to TE2 status.

Luke Musgrave, Green Bay Packers

The Packers drafted Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft in the 2023 NFL Draft. It was a much-needed position, having just Josiah Degura and Tyler Davis on the roster. Musgrave profiles as more of the pass-catching threat and he’s the best bet for fantasy relevance this season.

The problem, however, is the passing volume in Green Bay. Since becoming the head coach for the Packers, they’ve ranked 16th, 24th, 15th, and 18th this past season in passing attempts. That was with Aaron Rodgers. It’s possible their volume goes down with a young quarterback, but it’s very unlikely to go up.

From Week 10 on, Christian Watson had a 22% target share and in the games he appeared in, Romeo Doubs was at 15.7%. Then you need to factor in fellow second-round rookie, Jayden Reed, and running back Aaron Jones, and it becomes increasingly difficult to find a pathway for Musgrave to get consistent targets.

Realistically, the best-case scenario is Musgrave ends up being Green Bay’s No. 3 target-earner on a league-average passing offense. That won’t translate to anything more than a TE2 streamer in plus-matchups.

Sam LaPorta, Detroit Lions

Sam LaPorta is very interesting, largely due to the Jameson Williams suspension. The receivers behind Amon-Ra St. Brown are Josh Reynolds and Marvin Jones Jr., two guys who aren’t exactly lighting the world on fire. Or even creating a spark if we’re being honest.

Sam LaPorta has a legit case for TE1 in this class.

Led Iowa in receptions 3-straight seasons.

Put up a 25% Dominator Rating.

& ran the fastest 40 (4.59) out of any of the Top-6 TE’s in this class.

Stop letting him fall to RD4 in your rookie mock drafts.

— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) April 5, 2023

LaPorta was Iowa’s leading receiver in each of the last two seasons and is an elite athlete, scoring a 9.01 on the RAS. Detroit’s tight ends last year finished with just 93 targets and that was with Hockenson on the team for seven games. It’s hard to imagine there being enough volume to make LaPorta a consistent contributor, but with his athleticism and Detroit's somewhat lacking pass-catchers, especially early in the season, LaPorta could carve a role that at least allows him to be a TE2 streamer in plus-matchups.

Backup with Upside

Roschon Johnson, Chicago Bears

There's a very real argument that Roschon Johnson should actually be in the "second-half flex starter" category because this is a tremendous landing spot for him. The Chicago Bears' backfield is completely wide open. It consists of a former sixth-round player, Khalil Herbert entering his third season, and former Carolina Panther, D'Onta Foreman. He's been in the league for five years after suffering a torn Achilles early in his career. That's about as wide open as it gets. It shouldn't be surprising if Johnson ends up operating as the 1A.

Roschon Johnson had over 20 receptions as a true freshman before Bijan committed to Texas the year after

Roschon is a better pass catcher than Khalil Herbert and D’Onta Foreman

Great fit for him to see the field early on https://t.co/pYeyu5iONi

— Josh Larky (@jlarkytweets) April 29, 2023

Realistically, this backfield is going to start out as a committee, but Johnson was praised for his pass-blocking skills entering this draft, which could give him the early lead for the pass-catching and third-down role. The Bears' offense has made a lot of additions this offseason and fantasy managers should expect this team to be much better this year.

With Justin Fields at quarterback, fantasy managers shouldn't be expecting very many check-downs, which is going to limit the ceiling of this running back room, but Johnson could find himself in a similar role as that of Brian Robinson last year of the Washington Commanders.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

This is a really good landing spot for Chase Brown and he could be someone who works his way up to low-level flex status by the second half of the season. That really shouldn't be surprising. The depth chart behind Joe Mixon is very much lacking. They lost Samaje Perine in free agency, who had 95 carries last year, 51 targets, 38 receptions, 681 scrimmage yards, and six touchdowns. Perine was certainly someone who found his way into starting lineups at the end of last season and Brown could do the same.

The coaching staff in Cincinnati has been reluctant to use Mixon as their full-time pass-catching back, so if Brown could prove to the coaching staff he can protect Joe Burrow, he can become a usable option in full-PPR leagues. That'll be something to watch this off-season.

However, if anything should happen to Mixon, injury or suspension, Brown is likely to get the first crack at early down work for an explosive Bengals offense. He looks like one of the better handcuffs for fantasy football this season.

Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks

This is a rather disgusting landing spot. The Seahawks already have Kenneth Walker from last season who finished with 1,215 scrimmage yards in 15 games of action and 11 starts. He was a very impressive rookie and finished second to Garrett Wilson in the Rookie of the Year voting. Despite that spectacular rookie season, that didn't stop Seattle from adding another running back in the second round.

Fantasy managers should be expecting Charbonnet to operate as the secondary option to Walker this season. Pete Carroll talked up Charbonnet's passing game skillset and this was a knock on Walker coming out of Michigan. With Travis Homer moving to Chicago, there could be a pathway where Charbonnet could operate as Seattle's primary third-down option out of the backfield. However, throughout Carroll's duration in Seattle and even last year, Seattle very rarely throws the ball to its running backs. With weapons such as Metcalf, Lockett, and JSN at receiver, there's little reason to expect that to change this upcoming season.

Last year, the Seattle running backs combined for 418 total touches. Walker is still going to lead the way, but Charbonnet will operate as the clear and primary No. 2. That could mean 150 touches, but he's still best viewed as Walker's handcuff, who at best, will be a low-level spot starter during bye weeks as long as Walker is healthy.

Tyjae Spears, Tennessee Titans

We don't need to go in-depth here. With Derrick Henry still a Tennessee Titan, Tyjae Spears is nothing more than a handcuff in 2023. Unlike Charbonnet who might hold some low-level starting appeal on bye weeks, Spears most certainly will not. He might be one of the better handcuffs in the NFL this season for fantasy football, but expecting any kind of weekly value as long as Henry is healthy is unwise.

Kendre Miller, New Orleans Saints

Kendre Miller’s fantasy football value for 2023 is pretty much up in the air right now. That’s because a lot of that has to do with what happens with Alvin Kamara and his looming suspension. Right now, Miller slots in as the team’s RB3 on the depth chart, without even mentioning Taysom Hill who they’ve used close to the goal line.

With Kamara on the field, Miller will hold virtually no fantasy value. That’s because Williams will work as the early down plodder, Kamara will be the pass-catching option and the primary starter, and Hill will handle short-yardage and goal line situations. After that, what’s left for Miller? The answer, pretty much nothing.

If, however, Kamara is suspended Miller could hold some flex appeal in New Orleans working behind Jamaal Williams. This is likely to be short-lived, however.

Devon Achane, Miami Dolphins

Devon Achane had insanely productive collegiate seasons the past two years. In 2021 and 2022, Achane racked up 2,012 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns. He also added 60 receptions, 457 receiving yards, and 4 receiving scores. However, his 5’9 and 185-pound frame is what caused him to fall in the draft.

He doesn’t have the size to handle a large workload and while there are always one or two outliers in that sense, betting on Achane to carve out a large role is a bad bet. The more realistic role is hoping he can become the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield while still getting 5-6 carries a game. If he does that, he could have flex appeal.

The problem is with Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. on the team, he’s unlikely to get many rushing opportunities, which has a direct negative impact on his touchdown potential. The running backs in Miami last year had just 90 targets. Even if Achane takes half of that, he’d finish with around 34 catches. That’s not nearly enough to be fantasy viable. Achane needs an injury to Mostert or Wilson to have any kind of relevance this season.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

While some might look at this landing spot and think it’s subpar due to Travis Etienne being the team’s No. 1 running back, there is some appeal here in Jacksonville. Last year, the non-Etienne running backs had 139 carries and 37 targets. Based on the team’s current depth chart, it makes plenty of sense to assume Bigsby is going to take on almost all of that and create a very good 1-2 punch with Etienne.

That kind of workload would provide Bigsby with around 150 touches. If he averages roughly 4.6 yards per touch, he’d finish with around 700 yards. If he manages to find the end zone 3-4 times, fantasy managers might have a flex-worthy starter, but only on bye weeks or if you’re desperate. However, that’s a fine player to have on your bench because he’s usable in a pinch, but the real reason, is his potential value as Etienne’s handcuff.

If Etienne were to miss any time, Bigsby would step into the starting role and would instantly become a top-20 running back. He was a very productive college player and received good draft capital when Jacksonville took him in the third round. He should be an RB4-type player with high contingency value, much like Charbonnet.

Israel Abanikanda, New York Jets

Israel Abanikanda was getting second-round hype following his explosive pro-day performance. You combine his athleticism with his production at Pittsburgh where he finished with 1,577 scrimmage yards and 21 touchdowns and it’s not hard to see why he was a draft favorite among several analysts.

Unfortunately, the draft capital never materialized. He ended up getting drafted in the fourth round to the New York Jets where he’ll be the backup running back behind star, Breece Hall. Even worse for Abanikanda is that the Jets also employ Michael Carter who is a very good pass-catcher.

Without a Hall injury, Abanikanda will not have any true fantasy value. It’s likely that Carter operates as the secondary pass-catcher behind Hall and he’s still going to receive some opportunities on the ground. If Hall were to get hurt, while fantasy managers should expect Abanikanda to become the early-down option, Carter would become the starting third down and pass-catcher.

It should be noted that Hall is recovering from a torn ACL and if he’s not ready to start the season, he could have flex value, but with Carter also in New York, it’s hard to envision his value rising higher than that as he’s unlikely to have much of a role, if any, in the passing game.

Eric Gray, New York Giants

Like Tyjae Spears, we don't need to go in-depth here. This backfield is Saquon Barkley's and as long as he's a New York Giant, Gray is going to have virtually zero fantasy football value on a weekly basis. Gray, like Spears, will make for one of the better handcuff options in the league. He was an extremely effective runner at Oklahoma and fantasy managers shouldn't sleep on what he might do if given the lead-back role in the event of an injury. He'd quickly ascend to RB2 status, but if Barkley remains healthy throughout 2024, Gray will not be startable in any format, not even in a desperate situation.

Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

As previously mentioned with Luke Musgrave, the Packers’ have been a mostly middle-of-the-pack to a slightly below-average team in passing volume over the last four years of LaFleur’s time there. That was with a two-time MVP quarterback, as well. That lack of volume is going to significantly hamper Reed’s ability to make noise this year in fantasy football.

Christian Watson is locked into the No. 1 role and could command a target share as high as 24%. Romeo Doubs also had a very productive rookie season, finishing with 67 targets despite playing in just 13 games, and in four of those games, he had a snap share below 38%.

Reed is likely to operate as the team’s primary slot receiver, but this will take him off the field when the team uses 12-personnel, which the team did at a high rate last year. They had 31.5% of their snaps in that personnel last year, which was in the top 10 for highest in the NFL. Every time the Packers go to that grouping, Reed gets taken off the field. Fewer snaps equals fewer routes and fewer routes equals fewer fantasy opportunities.

Reed will need an injury to Watson or Doubs to be fantasy-relevant this year in what appears to be a low-volume passing offense that could struggle with first-time starter, Jordan Love behind center.

Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts

It saddens me that Josh Downs landed in Indianapolis with Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. While Downs makes for a perfect complement to these two bigger, speed receivers on the outside, the potential for Downs to earn enough volume to be fantasy relevant is slim to none. That's to say nothing about the quarterback situation, which is certainly below average. While we can have hope for the player Anthony Richardson might become, the reality is he's very likely to struggle as a passer in 2023, which pretty much eliminates all chance for the Colts' No. 3 receiver to be someone fantasy managers can rely on.

The good news, if there is any, is that Downs is going to be the team's primary slot receiver and that could result in Downs eventually working ahead of Pierce on the target hierarchy as he's likely to continue operating largely as a deep ball threat. However, on any two receiver sets, Downs is going to leave the field as Pierce is the bigger body and the better run blocker. That's going to significantly limit Downs' snaps and routes run, directly impacting his fantasy value in a negative way. The only route for Downs to be a fantasy-relevant player this year is with an injury to Pittman or Pierce.

Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

Marvin Mims joins a very crowded group of pass-catchers in Denver. There’s Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Tim Patrick, and Greg Dulcich. There have been rumors that Jeudy and Sutton were on the trade block, but nothing has happened and at this time, it seems unlikely we’ll get a trade before the start of the season.

While Sutton and Jeudy haven’t reached the status that many thought, they’re still quality football players. Actually, Jeudy had something of a breakout second half of the season and he could be on the verge of his best season ever. Jeudy finished the year with 67 catches and 972 yards all while missing two games. Sutton had 64 catches and 829 yards, also while missing two games. They also both had to deal with the quarterback play of Russell Wilson. Neither receiver’s season was all that bad considering the circumstances.

Now adding Patrick to that mix and Dulcich who will be in his second season and it becomes impossible to see a pathway for Mims to have fantasy relevance this year short of an injury or a trade to one of the players ahead of him and truthfully, that might not even be enough. Say Sutton gets traded, Mims would still slot in as the No. 3-4 target most weeks on a passing attack that struggled significantly last season.

Nathaniel Dell, Houston Texans

There's been a lot of hype over the incredibly small Nathaniel Dell, but fantasy managers should be taking all that with a gigantic grain of salt. There are very few receivers in the history of the NFL at his size who have been productive. He came in at 5'8" and 165 pounds. The most receiving yards by any receiver since 1990 who was 5'9" or shorter and 170 pounds or lighter has been 798. The most receptions was 67. Even if we increase those totals to 5'10 or shorter and 175 or less, the only player to ever record 1,000 yards is DeSean Jackson.

Let's take it one step further. We'll keep those same parameters, 5'10" or shorter and 175 pounds or lighter, looking specifically at their rookie seasons. There have been 66 receivers that meet that criteria since 1990. Only four of them have had 500 yards or more. Only five had more than 25 receptions. Dell might become a valuable real-life NFL player, but it's incredibly unlikely he's ever going to be a fantasy-relevant one, especially in year one.

Michael Wilson, Arizona Cardinals

Michael Wilson played five years at Stanford and finished with 1,662 yards. In five seasons. Over the last three years, he’s appeared in just 14 games. Injuries have been a major problem for Wilson and it’s what caused him to fall. He’s a physical beast and one of the best athletes in the draft at receiver, but he rarely got to display that on the field.

Wilson joins a crowded room of pass-catchers in Arizona with Marquise Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and tight ends Zach Ertz and Trey McBride. Hopkins has found his name in the rumor mill most of the offseason and Wilson will need that to become a reality to have a puncher’s chance at fantasy relevance this season.

If Hopkins is traded, Wilson could end up starting as the team’s X-receiver with Brown operating as the Z and Moore in the slot. He wouldn’t get a ton of targets, but they’d likely be downfield targets with high upside and high volatility. Think like a Marquez Valdes-Scantling type of player.

That would make him better in best ball, but it’s still a very big risk even in the event Hopkins is traded. Until that happens, Wilson holds no fantasy relevance whatsoever. If Hopkins does get traded, he becomes a dart throw best suited in best ball.

Cedric Tillman, Cleveland Browns

Cedric Tillman is not likely to have much of a role in 2024. That's because the Cleveland Browns have Amari Cooper and David Njoku to lead this passing attack. Behind him, the team traded for former 2021 second-round pick, Elijah Moore from the Jets and still have Donovan Peoples-Jones. Both of these players are going to work ahead of Tillman. Moore seems like he has the most potential among these three players, but Peoples-Jones just put together a really good 2022 season. He finished with 61 receptions and 839 yards and isn't likely someone the Browns are just going to push aside for a rookie.

Cooper will be the team's starting Z-receiver, DPJ will be the team's starting X-receiver, and Moore will be the team's starting slot receiver. This will leave Tillman working as the team's No. 4 receiver, without even mentioning tight end, Njoku. Even if he were to supplant DPJ at some point this season, he's still going to be behind Cooper, Njoku, and likely Moore. If Tillman is going to be fantasy-relevant in 2023, he's going to need an injury to one, possibly even two of the team's pass-catchers ahead of him.

A.T. Perry, New Orleans Saints

There weren’t too many receivers in the draft who have been more productive than A.T. Perry over the past two seasons in college. Over the last two years, he had 152 receptions, 2,389 yards, and 26 touchdowns. He’s a 6’3" receiver with a 9.62 RAS and many thought he was a day-two pick. He fell to the Saints in the sixth round.

Perry will start out behind Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed, which will mean Perry cannot be trusted at all, in any sort of fantasy league. However, we’re just one Michael Thomas injury away from either Perry or Tre’Quan Smith being inserted into the starting lineup. Given what we know about Smith, it’s possible that the job could go to Perry.

However, in the event that this happens, Perry is unlikely to command the target volume with Olave, Shaheed, and tight end Juwan Johnson that fantasy managers would need for him to be a dependable asset.

Xavier Hutchinson, Houston Texans

Over the last three years, Xavier Hutchinson has compiled 254 receptions, 2,929 yards, and 15 touchdowns at Iowa State. Those are some very impressive numbers. He’s got good size at 6’1" and 203 pounds and had a solid enough RAS with a 7.27. He’s an interesting player and the depth chart in Houston is fairly wide open.

They still have Nico Collins and former 2022 second-round pick John Metchie will return this season. They also signed Robert Woods from Tennessee and Noah Brown from Dallas. Houston also drafted Dell in the third round of this year’s draft. While there’s no alpha on the team or even upper-tier talent, there are a lot of bodies.

The coaching staff is likely to go with a receiver-by-committee approach, using each player in a very specific role best suited to fit their strengths. That’s going to leave Hutchinson in a part-time role if he’s to have any role at all early in the season.

Since the depth chart isn’t too competitive, with any injury or lack of production from any of the guys ahead of him, it’s possible Hutchinson works his way onto the field in year one, but that’s unlikely to produce a player that fantasy managers will need to roster.

Sean Tucker, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

It seems irregular to be talking about an undrafted free agent, but alas, here we are. Tampa Bay’s running back depth includes Rachaad White, Chase Edmonds, and Ke’Shawn Vaughn. That’s it. It’s pretty darn depressing.

Over the past two years at Syracuse, Tucker has 2,556 rushing yards and a 5.65 yard per carry average. He also found the end zone 23 times on the ground. On top of all that, he also chipped in with 56 receptions, 509 receiving yards, and 2 receiving scores. That’s pretty good folks.

There were some questions about his medicals, which caused him to go undrafted, but he put on an absolute show at his pro day, and was medically cleared. That doesn’t mean there are no longer questions, but it means he’ll got a shot.

The Tampa Bay backfield is wide open and White struggled as a runner last year to the tune of just 3.7 yards per carry. Don’t be surprised if Tucker winds up operating as the 1B to White this season.

White likely has a very strong hold on the passing work, but Tucker could carve out a role as the early down back. He’s going to be super cheap in redraft leagues, but he’s worth the dart throw. He’s one injury away from being very relevant.

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