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Every year we go through average draft position (ADP) with a fine-tooth comb to spot the players we believe are undervalued and the players we believe are overvalued. This is usually due to a specific reason, but sometimes, it can simply be recency bias as well.
In this article, we'll highlight four undervalued wide receivers that can be considered sleepers in 2024. These guys could all very well outperform their ADP this season. They all have one thing in common, they're all young players that have yet to reach their full potential. Given the opportunity ahead of them in 2024, all have the chance to reach new heights.
Instead of taking the boring veterans that lack upside in your fantasy drafts, try these undervalued youngsters instead. All of them are being slept on by the fantasy football community, and all of them should be getting your attention in 2024. Here are four undervalued wide receiver sleepers to consider drafting this season.
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Rashee Rice, Kansas City Chiefs
If not for the looming fear of a suspension, Rice would be talked about among the top 20 wide receivers this season. But instead, he’s got a current average draft position (ADP) of WR36 on FantasyPros. That’s just ahead of teammates Marquise Brown (WR37) and Xavier Worthy (WR41). Yes, Travis Kelce is still churning out yards and touchdowns, but have we forgotten this is the Kansas City Chiefs? One of these receivers is going to smash their ADP, and Rice could very well be the guy.
He started slow as a rookie. But once he found his footing, it was off to the races. After the Bye Week, Rice averaged 17 PPR fantasy points per game. That would have tied A.J. Brown for WR8 on the season. It wasn’t quite as good as Amon-Ra St. Brown’s 19.3 PPR points per game after the Bye in his rookie season, but it’s pretty close. The next season ARSB went on to average 18.6 PPR points per game. Generally speaking, it's not wise to fade rookie receivers who put up numbers like that once thrust into a full-time role. Much like St. Brown, Rice took almost 50% of his snaps from the slot as a rookie. And thus far in training camp, the rapport with the best quarterback in the world has been evident:
Mahomes to Rice pic.twitter.com/kBPwxjUhlF
— EDDIE HIGH (@EddieHigh) August 6, 2024
As a rookie, Rice commanded a respectable 17.9% target share with a dominant 27.4% target rate, per PlayerProfiler. His 22 red zone targets last season were seventh among wide receivers despite having just a 58.6% snap share and a 61.6% route participation rate. According to WR guru Matt Harmon, Rice had a nearly 80% success rate vs. zone as a “big slot” receiver. Luckily for him (and for you, the fantasy player), 62% of his routes came against zone coverage. Even if that’s his role going forward, it’s one you should feel confident about when matched with Patrick Mahomes. Heck, he might even become the next Travis Kelce! Don't pass on this guy at cost. In fact, do what you can to get him on all your fantasy teams this season.
Demario Douglas, New England Patriots
Douglas had a PFF receiving grade of 74.4 as a rookie, sandwiched between McLaurin and Pickens. That’s not bad at all. It was just under Zay Flowers (76.3), who many consider to be a top breakout candidate in his sophomore season. Flowers’ ADP is WR25, while Douglas has an ADP of WR70. That’s an insane difference, especially considering the pecking order in New England is completely ambiguous heading into the season. It’s not necessarily an apples-to-apples comparison, though, as Flowers did have a higher target share than Pop in their rookie seasons. However, it is to say Douglas has a lot of potential as well at a much lower acquisition cost.
DeMario “Pop” Douglas was “by far the Patriots’ best and most explosive playmaker in practice this spring.”
(Per @TheAthletic) pic.twitter.com/mF4TbLMF29
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 22, 2024
One of the biggest things going for Douglas heading into his sophomore season is the new offense being installed by former Cleveland Browns’ offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt.
On who benefits the most from AVP’s offense: “It’s still early on and we haven’t gotten a full look at the Patriots’ new offense yet, but I think Pop Douglas is one player who could be in for an expanded role that really fits his skill set. Last year the Patriots used his speed… https://t.co/7WfOwoHYB7
— 32BeatWriters (@32BeatWriters) August 7, 2024
Ja'Lynn Polk is also having a good camp, but he has yet to show his ability as a high-volume target earner. He was good at Washington, but he played third-fiddle to Rome Odunze and Jalen McMillan. Javon Baker is another rookie the Patriots brought in, but he seems to be fighting for a role as a depth piece at the moment. That leaves Douglas to compete for targets with veterans Hunter Henry, Kendrick Bourne, and K.J. Osborne. That’s not so scary, is it? It’s always time to buy talented and undervalued wide receivers in ambiguous offenses.
Josh Downs, Indianapolis Colts
Update: Downs suffered a high ankle sprain in practice on 8/7. His expected recovery time is between 4-6 weeks, which puts his playing status in jeopardy for Week 1 against the Texans on 9/8.
Josh Downs has an ADP of WR64. Compare that to Michael Pittman Jr.’s ADP of WR17 and you’ve got a very large discrepancy between the WR1 and WR2 in Indianapolis. The questions are: should it be that big of a gap, and why is it that big of a gap? Let’s take a look.
Before Downs went down (pun intended) with a knee injury in Week 9, he was on a really nice trajectory as a rookie. In his first eight NFL games, he averaged 59.1 receiving yards on seven targets per game. That was good for 12.4 PPR fantasy points per game. That was more than Chris Godwin, George Pickens, and Terry McLaurin averaged per game last season. Meanwhile, Pittman averaged 15.4 points per game in those first eight games with a healthy Downs. That would have been good for WR17 on the season.
Per PlayerProfiler, Downs had a route win rate of 52.7% as a rookie, which was 18th-best among wide receivers. His 17.9% target share and 20.2% target rate were also respectable numbers.
Minshew capitalizes on the free play 🔥
📺: #CLEvsIND on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/iTs8HMaXlh pic.twitter.com/n4GxJRbZhK— NFL (@NFL) October 22, 2023
Sure, there are some question marks this season around quarterback Anthony Richardson, but those same question marks should exist for Pittman too. Why, then, is Pittman coming off the board as WR17 and Downs as WR64 this season? The answer is most likely recency bias, as Downs had a lackluster second half of the season. There’s a strong chance he was never fully healthy after suffering that knee injury in Week 9, so let’s give him somewhat of a pass.
All we’ve heard in training camp is how good this kid looks. Here’s head coach Shane Steichen on the chemistry between Richardson and Downs:
#Colts’ Shane Steichen on Anthony Richardson’s and Josh Downs’ unspoken chemistry:
“Been around some guys that have played 16 years together and they just kind of look at each other and give a wink like, ‘We know what we’re doing.’ You get to that level, it’s pretty special.” pic.twitter.com/y4bSURoZlR
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) August 2, 2024
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