RADIO
We have officially reached the halfway point of the fantasy football regular season with many leagues starting their playoffs in Week 15. Even if you're not currently in the playoff picture, there is plenty of time to turn things around. While you can always try to find the next waiver wire wonder, fantasy production is far more guaranteed when trading for proven commodities.
Ahead of Week 7, I labeled Drake London and Austin Ekeler as trade targets. London was productive on Sunday while Ekeler was incredibly inefficient for a second consecutive game. The good news for both players is that they each have wonderful upcoming schedules.
I also suggested selling high on Evan Engram and Derrick Henry. Engram managed a decent performance against a stout Saints defense. Although the Titans were on a bye, the team made noise on Monday when they traded former All-Pro safety Kevin Byard to the Eagles. It's certainly possible that Henry is next, but if the 29-year-old remains in Tennessee, I'd definitely be concerned with his potential role on a rebuilding roster.
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I hope to provide much better advice this week as I discuss two undervalued players and two overvalued players to include in trade negotiations. Let's dive in.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are 5-2 as Lamar Jackson ranks second amongst starting quarterbacks in completion percentage and third in passer rating. The passing attack has been impressive under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and another major contributor to this has been rookie wide receiver Zay Flowers.
The Boston College product was the third receiver selected in the 2023 NFL Draft and immediately put the league on notice with nine receptions for 78 yards on 10 targets in his debut. Not only has Flowers' play passed the eye test, but his statistical output has been historic.
Rookie WRs since 1970 with 50+ scrimmage yards in each of their first 7 games:
- Ja’Marr Chase
- Zay Flowers 👀End of list.
(📊 via @NateNFL)
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) October 23, 2023
Even as the WR23 in half-PPR scoring, Flowers hasn't quite exploded for fantasy purposes. He's been consistently solid but is yet to surpass 100 receiving yards or 20 fantasy points in a contest. That could change very soon.
The Ravens will travel to Arizona in Week 8 to face the Cardinals, who have surrendered 140 receiving yards to a single wideout on three separate occasions this season. In Week 9, Baltimore will take on the Seahawks, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing receivers and have given up four 100-yard performances.
If you're not sold on Flowers, you may be concerned that Mark Andrews is the top option in an offense that still doesn't provide a ton of passing volume. Andrews is dominant, but he has only out-targeted Flowers in two of their six games together.
Although Andrews is talented enough to overcome any defense, it's worth noting that both the Cardinals and Seahawks have been stingy against tight ends in 2023 and are yet to allow a touchdown to the position. This could open the door for Flowers, who is averaging over four targets more per game than any other wide receiver in Baltimore, to truly emerge as a fantasy force.
In most leagues, Flowers is likely valued as a fringe WR3 or steady flex option. As I mentioned before, he's already a top-24 receiver through the first seven games of his career, so this very well could be his floor. He should be viewed as a worthwhile WR2 for the next two weeks with the upside to become much more.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
I was surprised to learn that Joe Mixon is currently the RB23 in six games played this season. Mixon hasn't finished as a top-12 fantasy back once, but he also hasn't finished lower than RB28.
He may not be scoring fantasy points at a high level, but his utilization in Cincinnati's offense is that of a workhorse running back.
DO NOT Trade for Joe Mixon. He has seen 70%+ snaps in five straight weeks and is averaging 19 touches per game and 98% of RBs to do this finish Top 12 over a full season but definitely fade Mixon cause he stinks and the Bengals offense isn't good this year and will always be bad
— Alex Caruso (@AlexCaruso) October 17, 2023
Mixon is one of just 10 running backs in the league to have a 70% or greater snap share on the season. Given this usage, his fantasy output has been lacking, but keep in mind that Joe Burrow and the Bengals looked pretty awful for the first four weeks. Additionally, out of the six opponents that Mixon has faced, five rank inside the top 16 defenses against fantasy running backs.
Mixon will be tested again in Week 8 against the San Francisco 49ers but has a dream schedule from Weeks 9 through 16. In that span, he'll take on five bottom-half run defenses. His role as both a runner and receiving option will keep him on the field throughout competitive contests as Mixon is earning a respectable 3.5 targets per game.
Unless the Bengals make a move to add to their running back room, Mixon's job seems about as secure as it gets in the NFL. Trayveon Williams, Chris Evans, and Chase Brown are the only other backs on the roster and have collectively totaled nine carries for 38 yards in 2023.
Expect Cincinnati's offense to continue improving, especially after a week of rest. Mixon has only found the end zone once this season, but having a fully healthy Burrow and Tee Higgins is sure to increase his red zone and goal-line opportunities. He should be one of the easiest three-down running backs to acquire in fantasy right now as he is coming off a bye with lackluster production to this point.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
The Commanders are a difficult team to evaluate from a fantasy perspective. Quarterback Sam Howell has impressed on a few occasions but the 23-year-old is taking far too many sacks as Washington is 1-4 in its last five games. Jahan Dotson's second professional season has been extremely disappointing.
For a short while, however, it seemed that Brian Robinson Jr. could be trusted. Robinson scored three touchdowns through the first two weeks while averaging over 20 opportunities per contest. Things took a turn in Week 3 when Antonio Gibson out-snapped Robinson as the Commanders quickly found themselves trailing the Bills. Although he has found the end zone a few more times, Robinson's efficiency and volume have fallen off a cliff ever since.
Robinson struggled to get anything going on the ground in Weeks 5 and 6, but his situation somehow became even worse in Week 7.
Washington Commanders
Chris Rodriguez carried the ball 7 times for 31 yards, averaging 4.4 yards per carry. 2 carries in the first half, and three at the start of the 3rd quarter. Not nothing.
Meanwhile, starter Brian Robinson had 8 rushing attempts, gaining just 23 yards
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) October 23, 2023
Washington lost to the New York Giants on Sunday, but as the post above mentions, Chris Rodriguez Jr. was involved in the Commanders' first-half gameplan. Rodriguez was drafted in the sixth round of the NFL Draft this year but impressed in the preseason and has averaged 4.36 yards per carry on limited touches.
There has been no reporting to suggest that Robinson is in danger of losing his job, but with the second-year back averaging 2.87 yards per carry since Week 4, it's fair to be concerned. Robinson wasn't particularly efficient as a rookie, either, but was able to find success with a large workload.
With Washington's offense scoring just 20 points per game, it'll be hard to confidently start Robinson if he is to be part of a three-man committee moving forward.
Because he has managed to score in back-to-back games, you might still be able to trade Robinson as a top-20 fantasy option at the position. In Week 8, Robinson will face the Philadelphia Eagles, who surrender the fewest fantasy points to running backs, so now is the time to cash out.
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
I don't often mention quarterbacks as trade candidates because their value varies drastically from league to league. In standard, single-QB formats, you may struggle to trade away all but the top five or six quarterbacks. In superflex leagues, you may not be able to trade for a bottom-five quarterback.
Tua Tagovailoa is an example of a signal-caller that should carry significant value in all leagues. He's the QB5 on the year and is poised to go off on any given Sunday with Miami's explosive offense. Any doubts about Tagovailoa's abilities have seemingly been put to rest.
Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in passing yards, passer rating and yards per attempt
— Joe Schad (@schadjoe) October 24, 2023
Tua is a good NFL quarterback in a great system with elite weapons. Still, he could be a disappointment for fantasy football down the stretch.
So far this season, Tagovailoa's best performances have come against the Chargers, Broncos, and Panthers. His worst showings have been in matchups with the Patriots, Bills, and Eagles. He has excelled in good matchups and struggled against tough defenses.
Unfortunately for Tagovailoa, there are plenty of tough defenses left on Miami's schedule. Before the Dolphins' Week 10 bye, he'll have to face the Patriots again as well as the Chiefs. A showdown with Kansas City sounds exciting with the potential to turn into a shootout, but the Chiefs' defense has not allowed a single quarterback to eclipse 20 fantasy points this season.
Miami has a few decent matchups sprinkled in later in the season, but Tagovailoa's schedule for the fantasy playoffs is brutal. The Jets, who are on tap for Week 15, have made things difficult for Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen already. In Weeks 16 and 17, the Dolphins will take on the Cowboys and Ravens, two defenses that rank inside the top six against fantasy quarterbacks.
If the rest of your fantasy team is strong, you can surely get by with Tagovailoa through his good and bad matchups. If you've had bad luck with injuries at running back or wide receiver though, it might be a good idea to flip Tua and a piece to upgrade at a skill position. In single-QB leagues, it is always possible to find a decent streaming option on the waiver wire.
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