RADIO
Week 7 was a strange one. Multiple players went down with season-ending injuries and others simply did not show up. There were likely many fantasy lineups out there that failed to crack 50 points. If you struggled this week, just know that you're not alone and that there is still plenty of football yet to be played.
Last week, I highlighted De'Von Achane and DK Metcalf as players to trade for. Achane found some success against the Colts despite Miami's offensive woes and Metcalf bounced back for 99 yards and a score before exiting early with a knee injury. He's currently considered week-to-week, so as long as he returns relatively quickly, both of these trade targets should continue to look good. I suggested selling high on Bucky Irving and Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid turned in another lackluster performance while Irving exceeded my expectations against the Ravens. Although he was inefficient on the ground, Irving found the end zone and contributed in the passing game. Still, Tampa Bay's backfield does appear to be a three-man committee with more difficult matchups to come in the next three weeks.
We're on a pretty solid run right now, but the trades you make going forward are going to be even more important with trade deadlines just around the corner and the fantasy playoffs following soon after. I'm keeping that in mind as we dive into some overvalued and undervalued players ahead of Week 8.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Stefon Diggs, Houston Texans
Where do you think Stefon Diggs ranks amongst wide receivers in half-PPR fantasy scoring so far this season?
If you guessed within the top 10, you'd be correct, and I applaud you. I was surprised to see that Diggs is the WR9 through the first seven weeks. While he's undoubtedly been steady, he hasn't had any monstrous performances.
His best showing came back in Week 1 when he mustered only 39 total yards but found the end zone twice. He was the WR10 on the week. Since then, his best finish was as the WR13 in Week 6 and he has finished outside of the top-45 receivers twice. This includes a Week 7 disappointment in which Packers cornerback Jaire Alexander locked him up.
Throughout their careers, Alexander has routinely gotten the better of Diggs.
Jaire Alexander and Stefon Diggs have faced off five times in their careers. Here are the totals from those matchups courtesy of @PFF:
Diggs has been targeted seven times against Alexander’s coverage for three receptions and 21 yards.
In other words, Alexander is dominating.
— Brandon Carwile (@BCarwile_NFL) October 18, 2024
The silver lining for Diggs this week is that he earned a 37% team target share from C.J. Stroud, who was also stymied by Green Bay. Since Nico Collins was placed on injured reserve with a hamstring ailment, Diggs has averaged 5.5 receptions on seven targets per contest.
At the earliest, Collins can return in Week 10. There may be only two more weeks in which Diggs will operate as the clear WR1 in Houston, but he should remain a focal point of the offense for the remainder of the campaign. And there's a very real possibility he turns in his best outing of the year this week.
Diggs will face the same divisional opponent he scored twice on in his Texans debut, the Indianapolis Colts. Of course, Collins was active in Week 1 and paced the team in opportunities and yardage. On Sunday, the 30-year-old Diggs should be Stroud's go-to guy against a Colts defense allowing the ninth-most passing yards per game and the 11th-most yards to wideouts.
Second-year pro Tank Dell could also go off in this matchup, but Diggs has been the far more consistent player in 2024 and will have a much safer floor for fantasy purposes when Collins suits up again. Diggs has taken nearly half of his snaps from the slot this season while Collins and Dell have mainly worked the outside. In addition, Diggs has out-snapped Dell every week.
At his current standing of WR9, Diggs is valuable to any fantasy manager who drafted him. Because he hasn't posted truly dominant numbers yet, however, he should be attainable and perhaps even easy to trade for coming off a down game with Collins' return looming.
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
Week 7's Eagles versus Giants divisional showdown was not much of a showdown at all, but there were still some intriguing takeaways. We got the Saquon Barkley revenge game and the sixth consecutive home appearance in which Daniel Jones did not throw a touchdown pass.
We also saw the tush push in full effect and A.J. Brown's third finish as a fantasy WR1 in as many games played. It was a convincing victory for Philadelphia.
Although the Eagles put up 28 points and did not have Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith was completely uninvolved. The former Heisman winner lost two yards on his only reception of the day. It's obvious Smith is the 1B to Brown's 1A now that the latter is healthy, but we saw in Weeks 1 and 6 that both can be useful for fantasy in the same contest.
The game script just was not suited for both to succeed on Sunday.
Jalen Hurt's passing chart from the Eagles' victory over the Giants. He was 10-14 passing with a time to throw of 3.6 seconds and an average depth of target of 9.3 yards.
He had a completion percentage over expectation of +13.1% and generated 0.22 EPA/play. For the 2nd week in… pic.twitter.com/wrZKM7OANu
— Shane Haff (@ShaneHaffNFL) October 20, 2024
Hurts' 14 pass attempts were his fewest in a game since the 2021 regular season. Barkley ran all over his former team for 176 yards and the Eagles never trailed. Smith simply wasn't needed in this one, as evidenced by his 80% snap share.
From Week 8 on, Philly has one of the easiest schedules imaginable for receivers. And perhaps even more importantly, most of these upcoming games should be competitive.
This Sunday, the Eagles will take on the Bengals, who have been clicking offensively as of late. Cincinnati's defense has not been very good, however, and has surrendered 35 points per game to teams over .500.
Next, Smith will get the Jaguars, Cowboys, and Commanders, who have all been defenses worth targeting for fantasy wideouts over the first seven weeks of the season. He'll later take on the Ravens and Panthers before squaring off against Washington and Dallas again in the fantasy playoffs. Baltimore gives up the second-most fantasy points to receivers and Carolina can't stop anything.
It would be fair to have concerns about a blowout over the Panthers, but all of the other opponents mentioned should be able to keep things interesting. Smith will be an integral piece of the Eagles offense even when Goedert does return.
The 25-year-old earned over seven targets per game through the first three years of his career and he's seeing a similar number of looks in 2024 even after two straight weeks of four or fewer targets.
Fantasy managers aren't getting what they expected from Smith right now, which makes him a perfect buy-low candidate. As a cherry on top, the Eagles already had their bye in Week 5, so you can lock Smith in as a WR2 the rest of the way without having to find a replacement later on.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Now in his sixth professional season, Terry McLaurin is finally coming through as an every-week fantasy starter. While the talent has always been there, McLaurin has dealt with some of the worst quarterback play in the NFL since entering the league in 2019.
Second overall pick Jayden Daniels has been a revelation in Washington. The rookie is first amongst all starting quarterbacks in completion percentage and third in QBR. He has done everything that has been asked of him and then some. But we have to acknowledge the fact that he is yet to prove himself against a formidable pass defense.
YTD strength of schedule for pass offenses
QBs that played the TOUGHEST pass defenses YTD:
1. Titans
2. Jets
3. Jags
4. Raiders
5. VikingsQBs that played the EASIEST pass defenses YTD:
28. Lions
29. Commanders
30. Bengals
31. Saints
32. Browns1-32: pic.twitter.com/UEahksoIrf
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) October 10, 2024
Daniels was injured last week, so his status for Week 8 is not known at this point. But whether it's him or Marcus Mariota under center, expectations for McLaurin need to be tempered against the Chicago Bears. The Bears have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing receivers and the seventh-fewest passing yards to quarterbacks.
Nico Collins is the only wideout to top 100 receiving yards against Chicago this season. His performance in Week 2 is the only showing that resulted in a top-30 fantasy finish against the Bears.
Excluding Week 2, Chicago has surrendered an average of just 16.7 fantasy points per week to wide receiver rooms. That number would easily be the lowest in the league if, of course, the loss to the Texans never happened.
The Bears have shut down other No. 1 options such as Calvin Ridley, Michael Pittman Jr., Diontae Johnson, and Brian Thomas Jr. I'd expect lockdown corner Jaylon Johnson to shadow McLaurin with the Commanders having so few other weapons in the passing game. This will certainly make things difficult for whoever is starting at quarterback for Washington.
I'd never advise trading away a great fantasy asset because of one bad matchup. Unfortunately, McLaurin has a few on tap. Going against the Giants in Week 9 isn't the end of the world, but New York has been far worse against the run than the pass this season. In Week 2, the Giants held McLaurin to only 22 yards on six receptions.
Next, he'll take on the Steelers, who have been stout against opposing top receivers in all but one contest.
While Weeks 11 and 12 look just fine, the Titans' elite secondary awaits in Week 13 before the Commanders have a Week 14 bye. This means that McLaurin will either be in a tough spot or unavailable in five of the next seven weeks. This is a problem for teams fighting for a spot in the fantasy playoffs.
With how productive he's been so far, you should be able to trade McLaurin for a quality player in return. The aforementioned DeVonta Smith could be a good target, and I'd also pivot to DJ Moore, who has an extremely favorable schedule through the end of the year.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
I rarely include quarterbacks in this column, so when I do, it needs to be a quarterback who holds value in single-QB formats. It's been a bit of a bumpy ride for Kyler Murray this season, but he was drafted as a top-8 quarterback and is currently the QB7.
Signal-callers with rushing ability have long been a cheat code in fantasy football and that holds to this day. Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, and Josh Allen are three of the top four quarterbacks in fantasy right now. Murray averages more yards per carry than all of them, and plays like this one on Monday night are the reason why.
Kyler Murray. Whew!!! pic.twitter.com/pElmaJmE1p
— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 22, 2024
This was Murray's second rushing touchdown of more than 40 yards in the past three weeks. He has scrambled away from defenses for gains of at least 20 yards in all but two games this year. If he was running the ball more frequently, I'd feel comfortable with him as a fantasy starter, but he's a little too reliant on these breakaway runs right now.
With 36 carries through seven weeks, Murray ranks just eighth amongst quarterbacks in rushing attempts. This would still be great if his passing numbers were yielding fantasy value, but they simply aren't.
Murray has eclipsed 250 passing yards the same number of times he has thrown for more than one passing touchdown: once. In six other contests, he's averaging 177.5 passing yards and exactly one passing score.
The connection between Murray and highly touted rookie receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. hasn't been established yet, and though it could improve throughout the season, it's not likely to flourish over the next three weeks.
The Dolphins are giving up the fewest passing yards in the league this season, the Bears are giving up the seventh-fewest, and the Jets are giving up the second-fewest. These are the Cardinals' next three opponents, respectively.
I would be remiss not to note that teams have not been passing much against the Dolphins, who have been unable to stay competitive without Tua Tagovailoa. With Tagovailoa slated to return this week, Arizona may be forced to pass, but it also could lean on James Conner against a porous Miami run defense.
The Dolphins, Bears, and Jets all rank within the top five of teams allowing the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Not only have these three teams limited passing yardage and touchdowns, but they have also prevented quarterbacks from gaining yards on the ground. They are three of eight teams to surrender fewer than 100 total rushing yards to quarterbacks so far this season.
After these three challenging matchups, Murray will head into a Week 11 bye. He may not help your team again until Week 12. I like the idea of selling him high after a top-5 finish last week.
If you have a strong bench, consider packaging Murray with another player to tier up to Jalen Hurts or Jordan Love. If you could use some reinforcements, try tiering down from Murray to Dak Prescott or Caleb Williams for an additional flex piece.
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