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Just like that, we have seen five weeks of the 2022 season pass by. One team remains undefeated, last year's Super Bowl squads are struggling, a head coach has already been fired, and the Giants are 4-1. Oh, and Geno Smith is a top-seven fantasy quarterback. Just as we all predicted.
Your fantasy team has undoubtedly been impacted by this madness, for better or for worse. There is always a fair amount of luck involved in fantasy football, but staying diligent, finding gems on waivers, and making intelligent trades will ensure you are giving yourself the best chance to win your league.
Below, I will discuss some players to trade for and some players to trade away as we approach Week 6. Be sure to tune in every Wednesday as I will continue to do so throughout the season.
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Before we dive into my favorite trade targets, let's review the short-sighted outcome of last week's column.
Last Week's Recap
Both of last week's trade-for suggestions came through in a big way in Week 5.
Chris Olave finished with four receptions, 54 yards, and a touchdown in just over two quarters of football. He was unfortunately concussed in the end zone and exited early. Practice reports throughout the week should indicate whether or not Olave has a chance to play in Week 6, but even if he's sidelined, don't fret. The rookie has established himself as a trusted weapon in the Saints offense and could return to a healthy Jameis Winston throwing him passes.
The Detroit Lions continue to be a dream matchup for fantasy running backs, as highlighted by a career performance for Rhamondre Stevenson on Sunday. The second-year man out of Oklahoma racked up 175 yards from scrimmage in a shutout victory. Damien Harris left early due to a hamstring injury and did not return, but as the league's leader in evaded tackles coming into Week 5, runs like this from Stevenson were imminent regardless.
Rhamondre Stevenson entered today leading the league in evaded tackles pic.twitter.com/aa6l2FrB8V
— Underdog Fantasy (@UnderdogFantasy) October 9, 2022
It has been reported that Harris is expected to miss multiple weeks. We all hate to see a player go down, but the path for Stevenson to become a top-10 fantasy running back is now clear as day.
Speaking of career performances, T.J. Hockenson followed up an eight-for-179-and-two explosion with one catch for six yards in Week 5. Amon-Ra St. Brown was active but clearly limited, so this was a massive let-down for Hockenson. If you were able to sell high, congratulations because that window has now closed.
What was already looking like an ugly situation for Chase Edmonds in Miami got even uglier. Edmonds has seen his snap count decrease every week and only recorded one touch on Sunday. Meanwhile, Raheem Mostert ran wild for 113 yards and a touchdown, and even Myles Gaskin got involved. Hopefully you managed to get something for him as Edmonds will be one of the most dropped players when waivers run this week.
It's impossible to fully evaluate season-long trades after just one week, but all of Week 5's recommendations have paid off in the short term.
Let's keep the momentum going into Week 6.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars
After Week 1, I highlighted Jaguars running back James Robinson as a sell-high candidate. Although he continued to produce for a bit, it's been tough sledding for him in each of the past two games, and 2021 first-round NFL Draft selection Travis Etienne is slowly taking over.
Etienne played on more snaps and was given more opportunities than Robinson in both Week 4 and Week 5. Robinson has also seen his efficiency fall off a cliff in this span, averaging just 3.4 yards per touch to Etienne's 6.95. This productivity is sustainable for a ball carrier this explosive.
#Jaguars running back Travis Etienne played his best game since being drafted in the first round in 2021.
10 runs, 71 yards, 3 catches, 43 yards. Total AP yards: 114
Have to keep feeding him. He had just 3 rushes in the second half, 2 receptions in 2nd half late: pic.twitter.com/gtD6naq0Fl
— Demetrius Harvey (@Demetrius82) October 10, 2022
Robinson has always succeeded for fantasy purposes with a heavy amount of volume. It's clear that this volume is beginning to dwindle as Etienne, who is the far more electric runner, gets increasingly involved. Make no mistake, this will likely be a timeshare for the entirety of the season, so while neither player is a locked-and-loaded fantasy RB1, Etienne has a ton of upside in any type of PPR league.
As an incredible athlete considered by some to be a better prospect than Jonathan Taylor and Breece Hall, it's no surprise that Etienne looks to be an integral part of the Jacksonville offense going forward. The Clemson product put up eye-popping numbers with Trevor Lawrence in college and will look to do so once again in the coming weeks.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Yes, the Steelers offense is bad. But their defense is equally dreadful and rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett was forced to throw the ball 52 times in his first career start.
Diontae Johnson has long been the target hog in Pittsburgh, but preseason darling George Pickens is quickly becoming the most productive weapon with Pickett under center. He has 12 receptions for 185 yards in the past two games and has garnered over 18 percent of targets since Pickett replaced Mitch Trubisky in the second half of Week 4. This is up from the 13.7 percent target share he saw from Trubisky in three and a half starts.
Pickett is still targeting Johnson at a high rate and Chase Claypool drew nine targets last week, but Pickens is dominating his teammates in efficiency.
Kenny Pickett has attempted 65 passes thus far. Here's how the targets have been distributed:
Diontae 15 tar (23.1%), 7-71, 4.7 yards per target
Pickens 12 tar (18.5%), 10-154, 12.8 ypt
Claypool 10 tar (15.4%), 5-50, 5.0 ypt
Gentry 7 tar
Freiermuth (left early) 6 tar@Stathead— John Paulsen (@4for4_John) October 10, 2022
The rookie wideout is performing as the best downfield threat on the team and has already earned the trust of his quarterback, who has allowed him to make numerous plays on 50-50 balls. He will continue to do so, because as you have surely seen, Pickens represents a highlight waiting to happen on any given play.
Pickens could even see some additional opportunities over the next few weeks if tight end Pat Freiermuth misses time. Freiermuth was forced out of last week's contest in the third quarter with his third concussion in the past 12 months. With so much attention around the league currently centered on concussions, it is a fair expectation to assume the 23-year-old sits at least a game or two. Entering Week 5, Freiermuth was averaging 7.5 targets per game.
Given the fact that Pittsburgh is currently bottom-three in the NFL in points scored, Pickens probably doesn't offer fantasy-league-winning WR1 potential. As a top-24 PPR receiver in his fourth and fifth career games, though, he possesses a WR2 rest-of-season ceiling. Now is the time to acquire Pickens before he is viewed as such since he is likely just a depth piece on your leaguemate's roster.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Gabe Davis, Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills were firing on all cylinders on Sunday in a 38-3 blowout win over the aforementioned Steelers. Josh Allen put on a show, as did offseason hype machine Gabe Davis. Davis racked up 171 yards and two touchdowns on just three receptions.
Obviously, this type of production is impossible to achieve every week, but it was a welcome sight for fantasy managers as Davis appeared to be 100% healthy for the first time since the season opener. The third-year wideout missed Week 2 and failed to do much in Weeks 3 and 4 as he battled through an ankle injury.
He has had a nose for the end zone his entire career, but there are still reasons to be skeptical of his fantasy value going forward.
Just as I alluded to in Week 3's column when advocating to trade away Rashod Bateman, big plays are great for fantasy, but volume is more predictive of future success. Davis is third on the Bills in targets per game, well behind Stefon Diggs and slightly trailing Isaiah McKenzie.
His targets per route run are also down considerably when compared to his numbers in 2021. Again, Davis played through injury in two weeks this season which certainly didn't do any favors for his counting stats, but totaling only seven receptions in two games at full strength is not ideal. He has simply been other-worldly efficient with his limited opportunities.
Gabe Davis is averaging 2.7 half PPR points per target this season.
Jordy Nelson (2.6 in 2011) is the only wide receiver with more than 2.3 points per target and 75 or more targets in a season since 2000.
— Scott Spratt (@Scott_Spratt) October 10, 2022
No one would've predicted a WR1 overall finish for Davis in Week 5, but let's just say an epic performance could have been foreseen. Through the first four weeks of the season, the Steelers defense allowed the seventh-most PPR fantasy points to opposing receivers. In that span, they played the Bengals, Patriots, Jets, and Browns. None of these are terrible teams, but Buffalo easily conducts the most prolific offense of any of Pittsburgh's opponents thus far. It would have been concerning if Davis had a quiet outing.
McKenzie should have a decent shot to suit up in Week 6, so while Davis remains a high-upside fantasy play, expect his output to regress. If the rest of your team is consistent week-to-week, it could make sense to keep Davis around, but it may be a bumpy ride. With all of the buzz surrounding him in the offseason combined with this showing, someone in your league is bound to pay up.
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
For the first few weeks of the season, I considered Dalvin Cook as a buy-low option. After his first top-12 finish of the year, I have changed my mind.
Cook finally delivered on his first-round fantasy draft capital with 121 yards from scrimmage and two rushing touchdowns in Week 5. The concern is that he is no longer being utilized as an every-down workhorse.
The three-time Pro Bowler saw the field on 77 percent of snaps in Week 1, but has failed to eclipse 70 percent since and played on a season-worst 57 percent of snaps this past Sunday. Alexander Mattison rotated in for 34 snaps, which is the most he has played in his career in a game in which Cook was not sidelined due to injury at any point.
This wouldn't necessarily be a huge deal for fantasy if Cook was still seeing all of the valuable touches. Unfortunately, this isn't the case.
It's interesting how much Dalvin Cook and Alexander Mattison have split work in the red zone this year. Cook has 11 red zone opportunities while Mattison has 10.
— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 10, 2022
In addition, Mattison has two games this season with four or more targets. Cook opened the season with 11 targets in the first two weeks, but has seen just four total since, with zero looks from Kirk Cousins in Week 3. Cook has been excellent for fantasy over the course of his career due to his dual-threat ability, but it just hasn't materialized this season. He has surpassed 20 receiving yards in a contest only once.
This is another example of a player that should produce for your team and is therefore not a must-sell. Cook's usage just isn't what most fantasy managers anticipated, and Mattison has been integrated into the Vikings offense under its new coaching regime. Following a RB6 PPR fantasy finish, you should be able to get a haul for Cook as a known commodity.
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