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I wanted to start by celebrating the number of high-scoring games we got this past week, but I was surprised to learn that more contests hit the over in Week 4. Regardless, Week 5 did not disappoint, and many fantasy superstars reminded us why they were drafted so highly. We can only hope the trend continues, and in the meantime, evaluate the players who are here to stay and those who could let us down soon.
Last week, I labeled Rhamondre Stevenson a trade target before the news of his “demotion” was announced. Hopefully, you didn’t let this news sway you as Stevenson bounced back in a big way and, more importantly, took care of the football. I also suggested trading for Brock Bowers after two down games. The rookie scored his first NFL touchdown just two minutes into his meeting with the Broncos and finished as the TE2 on the week. Michael Pittman Jr. also found the end zone, but I’m not regretting my choice to sell him high after Week 4. He gained just 37 yards on five receptions and will resume catching passes from Anthony Richardson sooner rather than later. My final recommendation was to sell Jonathon Brooks based on his upside as Carolina’s potential RB1. Chuba Hubbard balled out once again, so it still seems likely to me that this will be a committee when Brooks makes his debut.
We’ll have to see how things play out, but as of now, I’m feeling pretty good about every call I made last week. Let’s keep the good vibes rolling into Week 6, starting with two players I’m looking to acquire.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Rome Odunze, Chicago Bears
If you need a matchup-proof starter at the receiver position that you can lock in for the rest of the season, Rome Odunze might not be the trade target for you. However, I love his potential to break out in time for the fantasy playoffs, and I certainly think you can deploy him in your lineup this week against Jacksonville.
Through five weeks, the Jaguars are looking like one of the best teams to start pretty much all your fantasy assets against. Jacksonville surrenders the most passing yards per game, the third-most points per game, and the third-most fantasy points per game to receivers. It has allowed nine different wideouts to score as top-30 options on a given week and three top-10 showings.
DJ Moore is the top weapon for Caleb Williams, but after his massive performance last week, it would be difficult to trade for him. Odunze tied Keenan Allen for the second-most targets against Carolina but logged just 40 yards on five receptions. This still bested Allen’s three catches for 33 yards and tied Moore in his reception total.
I don’t want to get too caught up in a “revenge game” narrative that may or may not exist, but it’s possible the Bears wanted to rub some salt in the wound of the Bryce Young trade that sent Moore to Chicago in 2023. Whether or not that was the plan, Moore had two touchdowns at halftime and the Bears led 27-7. Odunze wasn’t needed much in the second half.
The Washington product was the ninth overall pick for a reason, which he showcased in Week 3. Odunze went off for six receptions, 112 yards, and a touchdown on 11 targets against the Colts. Allen was out that game with a heel injury, but it’s hard to say his presence would have prevented Odunze from thriving. The 32-year-old is yet to crack the top 50 receivers in a week this season.
That’s not to say Allen won’t have his moments. Odunze, however, is the rising talent that was chosen to pair with Williams to usher in a new era in Chicago. He will improve throughout his rookie season, as will his quarterback, who has already taken massive steps forward since struggling to begin the campaign. The duo has connected for just one touchdown so far, but Odunze's participation in the red zone indicates that there are more to come.
Chicago Bears red zone receiving report:
🔸DJ Moore leading the way
🔸Keenan Allen's target per route run rate almost matches DJM
🔸Rome Odunze has the size and route technique to eventually emerge as the top target here pic.twitter.com/1fh3Lz734v— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 7, 2024
Again, I wouldn't bank on Odunze as a weekly WR2. But if you can manage to get him by trading away a depth receiver or running back, you can start him with optimism this week and expect a strong finish to the season.
Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Now, let's swing for the fences. Commonly selected as the RB2 or RB3 off the board, Bijan Robinson has been underwhelming to start his second professional season. He is yet to post a top-12 weekly finish and is still sharing Atlanta's backfield with Tyler Allgeier.
Last week, the Falcons dropped 36 points in a thrilling overtime victory over the Buccaneers, and Robinson barely made an impact. 77 total yards is fine, but fantasy managers are undoubtedly annoyed that the former first-round pick couldn't eclipse double-digit fantasy points in a game where his offense was firing on all cylinders.
#Falcons Week 4 RB opportunities (carries + targets):
Bijan Robinson - 11
Tyler Allgeier - 10 pic.twitter.com/MpuvYFtZWI— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) September 30, 2024
Although he was healthy enough to suit up, Robinson was listed on the injury report ahead of Weeks 4 and 5. Perhaps not so coincidentally, these are the only two weeks this year that Robinson ceded more than 21% of snaps to Allgeier. Robinson took the field for at least 75% of offensive snaps in each of his first three contests and was serviceable for fantasy despite facing difficult run defenses.
It's also important to keep in mind that the Falcons had a short week to prepare for Tampa Bay on Thursday night. With Robinson practicing in a limited fashion on Monday and Tuesday, it shouldn't be shocking that the team didn't immediately thrust him into an every-down role.
Assuming Robinson is 100% healthy this week, he should be in line for a heavy workload against Carolina. The Panthers have already surrendered 10 total touchdowns to running backs this season, so it makes sense that they're giving up the most fantasy points to the position. They've allowed a top-7 fantasy running back outing in four of five games.
There are very few running backs in the NFL who aren't involved in some sort of timeshare. Allgeier will continue to get work on the ground, but Robinson is the more effective pass-catcher and is still averaging a respectable 4.3 yards per tote.
Now that Kirk Cousins and the Falcons offense appear to be clicking, we can expect Robinson's productivity to increase dramatically, and he literally couldn't have a better matchup on tap.
You'll still need to pay up to get Robinson but it shouldn't be at the price he was drafted at, especially with how panicked the fantasy community seems to be with him. I'd see if a solid RB2 such as Tony Pollard or D'Andre Swift plus any startable wide receiver gets the deal done.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Rico Dowdle, Dallas Cowboys
Coming into the season, it was anyone's guess who would lead Dallas' backfield between returning Cowboys legend Ezekiel Elliott and fifth-year pro Rico Dowdle. Five weeks in, there is no more guessing necessary.
Rico Dowdle's weekly snap share + touch count
Wk 1: 44% / 9
Wk 2: 43% / 11
Wk 3: 46% / 11
Wk 4: 45% / 12
Wk 5: 50% / 22 👀— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) October 7, 2024
Dowdle has established himself as the clear RB1. He has scored through the air in consecutive weeks and totaled over 100 yards from scrimmage for the first time in his career in Week 5. Of course, there is value to be had in a starting back for a good offense, but I'm not confident his value will get much higher than it is now.
The 26-year-old has played well and is certainly more explosive than the aging Elliott. He is likely to retain starting duties unless Dallas decides to get aggressive at the trade deadline, which is a real possibility considering the Cowboys are currently the worst rushing offense in the NFC. We shouldn't expect that to improve given their upcoming schedule.
In Week 6, the Cowboys will face the Detroit Lions, who were destroyed by Kenneth Walker III but have otherwise been dominant against the run since last season. Even with Walker's 31.6 fantasy points in Week 4 accounted for, the Lions are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Dowdle will then head into a Week 7 bye before taking on the 49ers, Falcons, Eagles, and Texans, who have all been stingy against the run in 2024.
He fared well against a tough Steelers defense on Sunday night, but Pittsburgh was vulnerable to the Colts' rushing attack in Week 4 and lost multiple defensive starters in its loss to the Cowboys. I don't think this showing was enough to confidently start him against the Lions.
With his bye in Week 7, you'll have to wait two weeks before considering playing him again, and even then he'll project as only a middling flex option on the road in San Francisco.
Starting running backs aren't always easy to come by, so I'm not suggesting you trade Dowdle one-for-one for any random bench stash. I would, however, strongly consider sending him along with another player to try and tier up at any position.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
For the second straight year, Christian Kirk's utilization to begin the season has been puzzling. He may have been dropped in some formats after Week 2. You were rewarded if you held on, though, as Kirk has been the WR17 since Week 3.
Nonetheless, his usage remains odd. In Weeks 3 and 4, Kirk led the Jaguars in targets while playing on at least 73% of snaps. In Week 5, Kirk was relegated to 53% of snaps, his lowest share in any game he's played in Jacksonville. This would make sense in a blowout, but this was a 37-34 shootout that saw the Jags throwing with under a minute to go. Three of Kirk's four targets came in the fourth quarter.
Meanwhile, first-round wideout Brian Thomas Jr. recorded five receptions, 122 yards, and a touchdown. Thomas is the fantasy WR7 on the season and is earning Trevor Lawrence's trust as the most explosive option in this offense.
Although Kirk has still been productive amid the rookie's breakout, the Jaguars should be getting another weapon back this week that will compete for opportunities. He was extremely disappointing in Week 1, but let's not forget what Evan Engram did in 2023.
Evan Engram rank among TEs:
127 TGTs (1st)
104 RECs (1st)
884 YDS (4th)
3 TDs (T-17th)
500 YAC (2nd)
pic.twitter.com/a27bwmp79d— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) January 4, 2024
His return will directly impact Kirk more than any other Jacksonville receiver. Last season, Engram lined up for 414 snaps in the slot, more than any other tight end in the league. So far this season, Kirk has taken nearly 80% of his snaps in the slot.
Furthermore, Kirk has a brutal challenge awaiting him in Week 6. The Chicago Bears pass defense has been lights-out through five weeks, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to receivers and two total receiving touchdowns. Pro Bowl defensive back Jaylon Johnson spends most of his time on the outside, but Chicago has displayed an ability to limit pass-catchers all over the field.
With the emergence of Thomas and the return of Engram, Kirk is most likely going to be an unpredictable fantasy asset the rest of the way, and his ceiling will be capped unless Jacksonville finds its groove offensively. His fantasy output over the past three weeks and his history as a reliable PPR option should give him enough value on the market to find a trade partner.
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