RADIO
As crazy as it sounds, we are already almost a quarter of the way through the 2022 NFL season. Some fantasy players have experienced pure heartbreak, some have tasted triumph, and the rest of us have felt both or everything in between.
Regardless of where you fit in, now is the time to start looking ahead and making moves to improve your squad going forward. Even if you are 0-4, it is far from too late to turn things around.
I will be highlighting some players to trade for and some players to trade away ahead of Week 5. Be sure to check back every week as I will continue to do so throughout the season.
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As always, before we get into this week's trade targets, let's review Week 4.
Last Week's Recap
If you managed to trade for either of last week's targets, you were rewarded in their debut for your fantasy team.
Mike Evans was dominant in his return from suspension as he saw 10 targets, surpassed the century mark in yardage for the first time this season, and scored twice. Although both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones (knee) surprisingly suited up in Week 4, they sustained injuries during the game. Godwin stayed in but Jones was held out for the second half. Evans will continue to be one of the top two targets for Tom Brady with the potential for huge production in a wide receiver room that has struggled to stay healthy.
.@TomBrady. @MikeEvans13_. PRECISION.
📺: #KCvsTB on NBC
📱: Stream on NFL+ https://t.co/o84hsBqv8I pic.twitter.com/cE7s6Pa4bg— NFL (@NFL) October 3, 2022
Joe Mixon has been incredibly inefficient on the ground through four weeks, but volume reigns supreme in fantasy football. The Bengals fed him the rock 28 total times and he finally found the end zone. Samaje Perine, who stole a touchdown from Mixon in Week 3, only played on 19% of snaps and recorded just one touch. Mixon is tied with Saquon Barkley for the most running back touches in the NFL and should be viewed as a low-end RB1 as the bell-cow back in Cincinnati.
If you capitalized on the hot starts for Garrett Wilson or Cordarrelle Patterson, you should be content with that decision as well.
Wilson was targeted less than Corey Davis in Zach Wilson's return and posted his worst statistical performance of the season. Things will likely get better as the rookie develops chemistry with his quarterback, but he's not a must-start option every week.
I can't take a victory lap for advocating to trade Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) away before he was injured and subsequently placed on IR. Still, if Tyler Allgeier, Caleb Huntley, or Damien Williams impress in his absence, Patterson will return to a running back committee when healthy. This will be a situation to avoid for fantasy purposes.
Without further ado, let's outline the players to trade for and the players to trade away as we head into Week 5.
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
The New Orleans Saints were hampered by injuries this past Sunday morning in London, but rookie standout Chris Olave proved he can be a reliable target regardless of who is throwing him the ball. It has to be mentioned that Michael Thomas (foot) and Alvin Kamara (ribs) were sidelined in Week 4, but Olave has led the Saints in targets in each of the past three weeks.
The targets are important, but his production has also been elite.
Chris Olave has racked up 335 receiving yards through 4 weeks.
• 1st among rookie WR’s
• 8th among all WR’sOlave has overtaken Drake London as favorite to win OROY after Sunday’s games 👀 pic.twitter.com/zHlQCYxyhW
— NFL Rookie Watch (@NFLRookieWatxh) October 4, 2022
Surely, fantasy managers won't be looking to trade away Olave for cheap, so perhaps this can be considered a recommendation to buy high. He is currently the WR17 in PPR scoring, slightly ahead of Garrett Wilson, but Olave has not yet had a multi-touchdown explosion like Wilson did in Week 2. There is reason to believe this is coming.
Olave leads the entire league in air yards with 673 and it's not even particularly close. Tyreek Hill is in second with 453.
Quarterback Jameis Winston's (back, ankle) availability for Week 5 is currently unknown, but through the first three games of the season, he ranked third in the NFL in deep ball attempts. We all know Winston loves to let it fly, and Olave has been his favorite weapon in that regard. In the same timeframe, Olave ranked first in deep targets and first in unrealized air yards. If some of those unrealized air yards come to fruition, Olave will be a league-winner.
He should be great with or without Michael Thomas in the lineup, but Olave's opportunity is even more exciting if Thomas isn't out there commanding over seven targets per game. Thomas still looked the part to begin the season, but the 29-year-old was unable to stay on the field in 2020 and missed the entirety of 2021 due to injury, so seeing him miss time already in 2022 is concerning.
It will cost you a valuable asset, but go get Olave before he emerges as a fantasy WR1.
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
It can be difficult to trust running backs in obvious timeshares. Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson have split touches almost 50/50 through the first four weeks of the season. Stevenson, however, is trending upwards.
Ty Montgomery (knee) was placed on injured reserve after Week 1 and there has been very little information disclosed about his progress. He is eligible to return in Week 6, but it's certainly possible that he misses more time. Either way, Stevenson has absorbed his role entirely for the time being.
Patriots backfield the last three weeks:
Rhamondre Stevenson
60% snaps
44 touches
12 targets
5.3 YPC
4 red zone opportunitiesDamien Harris
41% snaps
49 touches
6 targets
4.5 YPC
10 red zone opportunities— Frank Stampfl (@Roto_Frank) October 3, 2022
Harris has been productive on the ground and has scored in three consecutive games. Fantasy managers definitely wish Stevenson was more involved in the red zone, but his utilization in the receiving game makes up for it in PPR leagues. Both backs are viable starters in fantasy lineups right now, but you might be able to acquire Stevenson for less.
Maybe the greatest argument for pursuing Stevenson in a trade is the Patriots' upcoming schedule. This week, they will face off against a Detroit Lions defense that is surrendering the second-most PPR points to running backs this season and allowed a 31-point fantasy outing to Rashaad Penny last week. New England should have no trouble running all over the Lions with their talented backfield duo, who they will likely rely on considering the current health of their quarterbacks.
Success should continue in the following weeks in plus matchups against the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, New York Jets, and Indianapolis Colts. Even if Montgomery returns at some point during this stretch, Harris and Stevenson will run clearly ahead of him. Trading for either player should prove beneficial, but unless you're playing in a standard format, Stevenson is more appealing due to his elevated snap count and target rate.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Since the Detroit Lions drafted him with the eighth overall selection in 2019, fantasy players have been waiting on T.J. Hockenson to break out. On a per-game basis, he was solid in 2020 and 2021 but has never been a true difference-maker in the same vein as Travis Kelce or Mark Andrews. Well, at least not until last week.
TJ Hockenson’s 39.9 PPR points is the 7th-highest tight end single-game fantasy score in NFL history
— Davis Mattek (@DavisMattek) October 2, 2022
Hockenson is talented and an excellent athlete at the tight end position. This type of production, however, is unsustainable for any player, and Hockenson's 12 targets were earned out of necessity rather than ability. D'Andre Swift (ankle, shoulder), Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle), and D.J. Chark (ankle) were all inactive in Week 4, opening up almost 60% of the team's total target share.
All three of the aforementioned players could be questionable for Week 5, but now is still the time to sell Hockenson. Last week, the Lions got into a shootout with the Seattle Seahawks, who were bottom-10 against opposing fantasy tight ends before Hockenson's outburst. Through the first three weeks of the season, Hockenson averaged just over eight fantasy points per game. Expect him to regress rapidly as Detroit's offense returns to full strength.
In all likelihood, Hockenson will still finish as a top-12 tight end, so you may not want to trade him and stream the position for the next 13 weeks. There is probably someone in your league that will buy into Hockenson's emergence, though, especially given his profile and name value. If you can, it would be wise to trade him for a package including a tight end like Pat Freiermuth, Gerald Everett, or David Njoku.
Chase Edmonds, Miami Dolphins
Chase Edmonds is easily the least valuable trade candidate mentioned in this article. He has scored three times in the past two weeks, but this can barely be considered a sell-high. I'll be the first to admit I was very bullish on Edmonds coming into the season, and even claimed he would be a top-12 fantasy running back in my bold predictions column, so it brings me no joy to suggest getting anything you can for him.
After signing with the Dolphins instantly in free agency, it seemed like Edmonds would be primed for a key role in Mike McDaniel's offense. In the season opener, this became even more apparent as Edmonds handled 16 opportunities and totaled 65 yards while playing on 63% of snaps. Unfortunately, it's been a downward spiral ever since.
Running back usage for Miami Dolphins over the last two weeks
Chase Edmonds
11 carries
4 targets
47 yards
3 TDsRaheem Mostert
23 carries
5 targets
92 yards
0 TDsExpect positive touchdown regression for Mostert. He’s the team’s RB1.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) September 30, 2022
It was never anticipated that Raheem Mostert would be uninvolved or that Edmonds would be a workhorse seeing 20-plus touches per game. It's just surprising that Mostert has so quickly taken over RB1 duties when Edmonds was given the bigger contract and was one of the most efficient producers in the league over the past three seasons.
Mostert has struggled to stay healthy throughout his career, so it's possible that Edmonds takes on a larger workload at some point if he goes down. Another running back would still likely get involved in this scenario, though, and Miami is currently dead last in the NFL in rushing attempts per game. There just isn't much fantasy scoring to be had in a split backfield that is carrying the ball so infrequently.
The saving grace for Edmonds has been his utilization in the red zone. Mostert has only seen one fewer touch than Edmonds in that area over the past two weeks, though. Even worse, Edmonds dropped an easy five-yard touchdown pass on the Dolphins' first drive in Week 4, so it wouldn't really be shocking if Mostert usurps this role as well.
You won't get much for Edmonds, but anything is better than dropping him. Try to package him with a wide receiver and trade with a team that lost a running back to injury.
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