RADIO
We are already 20% through the fantasy football regular season. While it's hard to believe that three weeks of the NFL came and went, it does feel like we've experienced a year's worth of ups and downs. This past week's slate of games had no shortage of shocking performances, both good and bad.
Malik Willis probably takes the crown for the most surprising individual showing of the week, but it was a different Malik that made me look silly. I suggested selling high on Malik Nabers after his Week 2 explosion. Somehow, Daniel Jones found a way to get the job done on the road against the Browns, and Nabers is looking like a matchup-proof WR1 moving forward after commanding 12 more targets and scoring two more touchdowns. I was not taken aback, however, by Ja'Marr Chase's huge bounce back or Tyreek Hill's letdown, as I advised to trade for the former and trade away the latter. And while I can't consider my recommendation of acquiring George Kittle an immediate success, I'd like to think that it would've been him going off instead of Jauan Jennings had he been able to suit up. I'm still all in on Kittle for as long as Deebo Samuel Sr. is out, so let's hope he's cleared for action in Week 4.
Admittedly, I am a little disappointed with how things panned out, but trades can't be completely evaluated in one week. My goal is to propose trade ideas that can help secure you a fantasy championship, not win you a singular matchup. With that in mind, let's move on to Week 4, starting with two players to have your sights on.
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Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
I don't think many would have predicted the Steelers would be 3-0 and atop the AFC North at this point in the season. New offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is proving to be a solid hire and great for the development of Justin Fields. Given Smith's history with the Falcons and Titans, it should not at all come as a surprise that Pittsburgh is leaning on the run.
The Steelers are currently third in the NFL in rushing play percentage and former first-round pick Najee Harris has been given the sixth-most carries through three weeks. Even with this volume, however, Harris is just the RB24 and has yet to find the end zone.
Unfortunately, I can't tell you that Harris will score 10 total touchdowns as he did in 2021 and 2022. With Fields at quarterback, he may lose some touches at the goal line. What I can tell you is that Harris will continue to get a lot of work, and possibly even more in the coming weeks.
Mike Tomlin gave some updates:
-Najee Harris: won’t have any limitations. Sounds like the sling was just precautionary, as hoped
-Jaylen Warren: week 4 is iffy, but good news that the MRI seems to have been negative for anything substantial. Probably a mild knee sprain. https://t.co/ggWFkwQ1JO
— Jeff Mueller, PT, DPT (@jmthrivept) September 24, 2024
Jaylen Warren was pulled early in Week 3, and although there is a chance he will suit up in Week 4, Harris should be trusted to handle the bulk of backfield touches. Cordarrelle Patterson is likely to get involved in the passing game, but don't count Harris out as a receiver, either.
Just last week, Harris recorded five catches on five targets. With Warren utilized so heavily through the air in 2023, it's easy to forget that Harris accumulated nearly 150 targets over his first two seasons as a pro. The 26-year-old is a very capable pass-catcher and Fields has demonstrated a willingness to check down to him.
The biggest reason to believe Harris can generate a spike in fantasy output is his schedule leading up to Pittsburgh's Week 9 bye. The Indianapolis Colts, his next opponent, were dreadful against fantasy running backs in 2023 and are surrendering the second-most rushing yards this year.
In Week 5, the Steelers take on the only team to give up more rushing yards than the Colts, the Dallas Cowboys. The Raiders, Jets, and Giants come next, all of whom rank top 12 in rushing yards allowed.
Even if Warren is 100% healthy at some point during this span, Harris is guaranteed to get at least 15 opportunities per contest with the single best schedule for any running back over the next five weeks.
His current fantasy managers are disappointed and probably wrestling with the idea of benching him this week. Make the decision easier for them and take Harris off their hands (and into your starting lineup).
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers
Earlier, I mentioned the shock of seeing not only a solid fantasy outing but an impressive real-life NFL quarterback performance from Malik Willis. Willis scored through the air and on the ground while leading the Packers to a win against his former team, the Tennessee Titans. None of Green Bay's wide receivers scored more than nine half-PPR fantasy points.
In case you forgot, Jayden Reed finished as the overall WR1 in Week 1. The second-year pro immediately established himself as the team's most dangerous playmaker with seven total opportunities, 171 yards from scrimmage, and two touchdowns. Of course, this was with Jordan Love under center.
The Packers may be 2-0 with Willis at the helm, but make no mistake about it, Love is a massive upgrade in the passing game. Love returned to practice last week and pushed to play, but Green Bay ultimately chose to exercise caution with its $55 million quarterback. He should have a realistic shot at returning on Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings.
Reed's modest numbers of late should open the window to acquire him without giving up an elite fantasy asset in return. So, let's talk about how he can help your team pile up some wins. Last season, Reed posted 912 total yards and scored 10 touchdowns as a rookie, which was good for a WR23 finish.
He did this on just 94 targets and 11 carries, causing many fantasy players, including myself, to doubt his ability to repeat this efficiency. His average draft position in the seventh round this offseason made this concern apparent.
Not only is Reed well on his way to scoring double-digit touchdowns again, but he is also poised to break out as a legitimate No. 1 option. The Packers see him as such when they prioritize getting him the ball, whether it comes down the field or on the ground.
He is currently on pace for nearly 30 rushing attempts in 2024, operating in a role similar to that of Deebo Samuel Sr. The 24-year-old is also seeing a massive uptick in utilization as a wideout.
Jayden Reed's route participation:
61% - 2023
75% - 2024Here's where he ranks in terms of Fantasy points per route run since entering the NFL⬇️ pic.twitter.com/597pRFSZX2
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 23, 2024
Through three weeks, we have every reason to believe that the Packers will continue to thrive on offense as they did last season. After seeing what happened in Week 1, we also have every reason to believe Reed is going to put up great numbers with Love at quarterback, and his involvement over the past two weeks suggests the same.
If you're still not sold, take a look at Green Bay's upcoming schedule. Over the next six weeks, Reed will face the Vikings, Rams, Cardinals, Texans, Jaguars, and Lions. Five of these six teams rank in the top half of most fantasy points allowed to receivers this season, and a different grouping of five finished the 2023 campaign in the top half.
In other words, Reed won't have a legitimately difficult matchup until Week 11. If you can trade a WR2 straight up for him or tier-down from a bigger name for additional pieces, he should prove to be well worth the investment.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks
Not all trades have to be blockbusters. Unless you're in a league filled with first-year fantasy gamers, you're not getting a superstar in return for Zach Charbonnet, and that's okay.
Charbonnet, Seattle's second-round selection in 2023, has filled in admirably from a fantasy perspective for Kenneth Walker III. With Walker sidelined due to an oblique injury, Charbonnet has scored three touchdowns and finished as an RB1 in back-to-back weeks.
Walker's availability for Week 4 is still in limbo, which means Charbonnet's viability as a fantasy option is, too. Regardless of who gets the start for Seattle on Monday night, Charbonnet is worth a roster spot as a handcuff, meaning the ability to trade him is still there.
If Walker is ruled out for a third consecutive game, Charbonnet will hold some value as an RB2 or flex option, at least for one more week. In truth, he shouldn't be seen as either against the Detroit Lions.
The Lions have the best run defense in the NFL and have for the last year. The Lions haven’t allowed an RB to rush for 70+ yards in the regular season since Week 16 of the 2022 season against the Panthers.
— Honolulu Blues (@HonoluluBlues_) September 24, 2024
Charbonnet was efficient last week in a blowout against the Miami Dolphins led by Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle but otherwise has left much to be desired when given opportunities in the NFL. It will be impossible to trust him against a Lions defense that has already shut down James Conner, Rachaad White, and Kyren Williams.
You may be hesitant to trade Charbonnet if you've been rolling with him as a starter, but this may be your only chance to get anything for him. He saw the field for only 34% of the Seahawks' offensive snaps in Week 1, so we can't expect him to have a meaningful role when Walker is at full strength.
Still, Charbonnet is fresh off two impactful fantasy games and will remain heavily rostered in redraft formats throughout the season, so there should at least be some interest from other teams. The ideal way to trade him is probably as an added piece to upgrade at any position.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Those who drafted Garrett Wilson in the first or second round of fantasy drafts finally got what they were waiting for last Thursday night. The Ohio State product caught his first regular-season touchdown from Aaron Rodgers.
A welcome sight, no doubt, as was his 26% team target share. Wilson has led the Jets in targets in two of three games so far this season. Strangely, he has led New York in receiving yards only once and was outgained by three teammates this past week.
Despite finding the end zone, Wilson scored as the WR26 with five receptions for a measly 33 yards in Week 3. That marked the second time in 2024 that Wilson was outproduced by fellow wideout Allen Lazard. Of course, I'm not arguing that Lazard is the Jets WR1, but perhaps his pre-existing chemistry with Rodgers is more relevant than we thought.
The connection between Rodgers and Wilson should grow stronger over time. Following the win over the Patriots, Rodgers expressed that it's been difficult to get Wilson the ball despite his best efforts. Defenses have been taking Wilson away and forcing other options to beat them.
It seems highly improbable that will change in Week 4. Wilson will face his toughest challenge yet in the Denver Broncos, with the highest-paid defensive back in NFL history set to shadow him.
Patrick Surtain II vs #1 WRs this season:
DK Metcalf - 3 Receptions, 29 Yards
George Pickens - 2 Receptions, 29 Yards
Mike Evans - 2 Receptions, 17 Yards pic.twitter.com/dbdbBr6HUW— Bryce 🎸 (@MileHighMims) September 24, 2024
Patrick Surtain II has been locking down opposing No. 1 receivers since entering the league. Fantasy managers should not be surprised if Wilson ends the week as a WR3 once again. And although he'll get a relatively favorable matchup against the Vikings in Week 5, the stingy Bills and Steelers defenses await in Weeks 6 and 7.
Wilson has the upside to be a top-10 fantasy player at his position, but we haven't seen it yet this season. He flashed some of this potential last week, which could be enough to convince someone in your league that he is a locked-and-loaded WR1 going forward.
If you can get that kind of value, it might be wise to pull the trigger before this Sunday's matchup.
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