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And just like that, Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season is in the books. Wild fantasy overreactions began pouring in as early as the first quarter of the season opener last Thursday night and did not let up throughout the weekend. While being online this time of year is always entertaining, it is also dangerous. When we react emotionally to what happens with our fantasy teams, we are susceptible to believing all sorts of propaganda from often very biased sources.
With this column, I always aim to provide unbiased advice on trades that could help you win your leagues. Of course, I have implicit biases, we all do, but over the past two seasons, I've done my best to look at players and data through an objective lens. Now in my third season writing these pieces, I plan to apply everything I've learned since I first published a buy/sell article almost exactly two years ago to deliver my best suggestions yet. As always, I'll provide a quick weekly recap to be as transparent as possible when I make a bad call (or a good one).
Now, it's time to take advantage of the overreactions. Let's look at two underwhelming players to trade for and capitalize on the hype for two players who may have overperformed this past week.
Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:- Quarterback fantasy football rankings
- Running back fantasy football rankings
- Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
- Tight end fantasy football rankings
- Kicker fantasy football rankings
- FLEX fantasy football rankings
- Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
- Superflex fantasy football rankings
- IDP fantasy football rankings
- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Marvin Harrison Jr., Arizona Cardinals
As someone who fully bought in and drafted Marvin Harrison Jr. as a top-10 receiver in a few leagues, I feel fantasy managers' pain. The fourth overall pick in this year's NFL Draft earned just three targets on Sunday and only managed to catch one for a four-yard gain. That was good for 0.9 points in half-PPR scoring. Yuck.
Sure, it isn't ideal that Harrison saw fewer receiving opportunities than Trey McBride, Greg Dortch, and James Conner. But let's try to look at what happened without the astronomically high expectations clouding our judgment.
Harrison faced the Bills on the road in his first professional contest. Buffalo held wideouts to the seventh-fewest fantasy points in 2023 and was especially stout against outside receivers. In other words, the Bills are a much more favorable matchup for slot guys like Dortch and McBride than for prototypical X receivers like MHJ.
Unfortunately, Harrison dropped one of his three targets, so we can't say he was completely blameless in his poor showing. To reiterate, though, this was his rookie debut, and there are usually growing pains associated with rookies, whether they are children of Super-Bowl-winning, Hall of Fame-inducted legends or not.
It even took Justin Jefferson two games to acclimate before breaking out in Week 3 of the 2020 season.
We have to address the most heartbreaking play of the game that occurred with just over one minute remaining in the fourth quarter. Blown coverage by Buffalo left Harrison wide open for a game-tying touchdown.
Given how fans reacted on X, you would have thought Kyler Murray was sitting in the pocket unpressured, purposefully ignoring the 6-foot-3 Harrison waving his hands in the air. This simply was not the case.
I hate freeze frames pic.twitter.com/yqU1DCduow
— Dan Orlovsky (@danorlovsky7) September 9, 2024
In short, better days are ahead. I think we can expect Harrison to step up next week in a much more favorable matchup at home against the Los Angeles Rams and again in Arizona Week 3 against the Detroit Lions.
Both of these teams finished top-10 in fantasy points allowed to wideouts in 2023 and surrendered monster receiving performances to each other on Sunday night. Go trade for him now while fantasy gamers are panicking.
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
It's been about two weeks since the devastating news broke that Kyren Williams would return punts for the Rams in 2024. I'll be honest, I dropped Williams a few spots in my rankings after hearing this.
Sean McVay never ceases to surprise when it comes to his running back usage, and this news combined with the team's selection of Blake Corum in the third round just had to mean that a full-blown committee was in the cards.
Well, the first half of that sentence was true. McVay surprised us by giving Ronnie Rivers two touches in the second quarter and the aforementioned Corum zero in Sunday night's showdown against the Detroit Lions. Williams was the guy, just like he was for pretty much the entirety of last season.
Literally. Rivers ended the day with two carries while:
Kyren Williams:
🔹 91% Snaps
🔹 84% Routes
🔹 78% of total carries
🔹 0% Blake Corum (no offensive snaps)Corum will be involved on offense sooner rather than later, but the Kyren FUD seems to have been overblown in W1. https://t.co/CXP8cSSae4
— Kevin Tompkins (@ktompkinsii) September 9, 2024
Williams had a decent outing for fantasy purposes with 54 all-purpose yards, three receptions, and a rushing touchdown. He finished the week as a low-end RB2. Not bad by any means, but also not what fantasy managers were hoping for when they spent a second-round pick on him.
There are other reasons Williams may be available for trade in your league, too. The Rams suffered a multitude of injuries in their season opener, including three to their offensive line. That could prove detrimental to Williams over the next few weeks, but it's a risk worth taking. McVay even stated after the game that the injuries played a part in his decision to lean heavily on Williams, a player that he trusts.
The Lions spent all of 2023 proving to us that they have an elite run defense, giving up the second-fewest total rushing yards in the league and the fewest fantasy points to running backs. It's a miracle Williams found any success in this matchup.
Next week, Williams will have the pleasure of facing the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, whose run defense was the single worst in the league last season. In his two meetings with Arizona, Williams averaged 150.5 rushing yards, 1.5 touchdowns, and 28.6 half-PPR fantasy points.
In addition to some offensive linemen, the Rams lost wide receiver Puka Nacua to a knee injury on Sunday that sent him to IR. It should be safe to assume that defenses are going to key in on Cooper Kupp now, especially after he reminded the world how dominant he can be when healthy in Week 1.
Although Matthew Stafford will still force a plethora of targets Kupp's way, don't be surprised if Los Angeles goes with a more run-heavy approach in Nacua's absence, specifically against the Cardinals.
If you can acquire Williams at any kind of discount (make sure to remind your league mate of the risk you are taking by investing in a punt returner), make the move and lock him in as a top-5 option this week.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any time I suggest trading away a starting running back, I always like to mention that you should only do so if you're comfortable with your depth at the position or if you're getting one in return. Even in full-PPR leagues, it is much harder to replace a running back with a guaranteed workload than a receiver.
That said, Rachaad White is a player with more value in full-PPR formats, but I think you can try to sell high on him in any type of league. Although he didn't score a ton of fantasy points in Week 1, he hauled in six passes and managed to eclipse 100 total yards. Because he was drafted as a borderline RB1, he should still be regarded highly in most leagues.
I'm skeptical of White's fantasy output moving forward for several reasons. For starters, the Bucs played the Commanders last week. Washington's defensive unit is considered one of the worst in the NFL and was particularly susceptible to pass-catching running backs in 2023, so it's no surprise that White had a good game. Let me rephrase that, White had a good fantasy game. He was effective through the air, as always, but remarkably inefficient on the ground.
Last year, White's shortcomings as a runner did not matter because Tampa Bay had no other options. White was given 16 carries per contest while Chase Edmonds earned the second-most attempts with about four per game. We only have one week of information to work with, but things are looking different this season.
Rachaad White:
13 carries, 22 yardsBucky Irving:
9 carries, 62 yards— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) September 8, 2024
Edmonds and Ke'Shawn Vaughn were given nine or more carries exactly one time each in 2023. Bucky Irving saw this volume in his first professional appearance and looked the part. The rookie didn't exactly light up the NFL Combine and wasn't drafted very highly, but the same can be said about White. If the latter continues to struggle as a ball carrier, we can expect Irving's role to grow.
Remember when I mentioned that elite Lions run defense? That's what White has to overcome this upcoming Sunday. He'll still be on the field plenty and provide a safe floor in PPR leagues but don't get your hopes up for a better rushing performance.
In Week 3, he'll face a beatable Denver defense, but his schedule becomes brutal after that. From Week 4 through Week 10, every defense White will face ranked in the bottom-12 for fantasy points allowed to running backs last season.
Again, White will probably be just fine in PPR scoring for now, but his role as a workhorse could change quickly. If you can flip him for a running back who was drafted a bit later but seems more secure, such as Joe Mixon or James Conner, I'd strongly recommend doing so.
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
University of Texas product Xavier Worthy introduced himself to the NFL world by setting a new 40-yard dash record during February's NFL Combine. His collegiate production alone could have made him an early draft pick, but this other-worldly display of speed all but guaranteed he would become a first-round selection.
Comparisons to Tyreek Hill were hard to ignore when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to add Worthy in the first round. They became even more inevitable after Worthy's regular-season debut last Thursday.
XAVIER WORTHY HAS ARRIVED.
📺: #Kickoff2024 on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/0612BrVxlJ— NFL (@NFL) September 6, 2024
The video above shows Worthy's first NFL touch, a 21-yard rushing touchdown. His third touch, a deep pass from Patrick Mahomes on a broken play, resulted in a 35-yard trip to the end zone. This was an exciting premiere for an exciting player, but we need to keep our expectations in check.
Worthy recorded just three touches on four total opportunities, while teammate Rashee Rice led the Chiefs with seven receptions on nine targets. Although Travis Kelce had a disappointing start to the campaign, we can't possibly expect one of the most prolific tight ends of all time to stay quiet for long.
Furthermore, Marquise Brown was out in Week 1 due to a shoulder injury, but is reportedly nearing a return. Brown, in addition to being nearly as fast as Worthy, commanded a respectable amount of targets both in Baltimore and in Arizona when healthy. In this offense, however, he and Worthy should be expected to operate similarly as field stretchers while Rice and Kelce soak up looks from Mahomes underneath.
One could make the argument that Worthy has the highest ceiling of any weapon in the potent Kansas City system. But it's unlikely that he will become the preferred target of Mahomes in 2024 when there are three other proven target earners on the team.
Try to trade Worthy off the promise he showed against the Ravens for a player whose weekly opportunities are more certain.
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