RADIO
If you're reading this, congratulations! I assume you have made it to your league's fantasy playoffs. Whether or not you placed high enough to secure a first-round bye, there are some player values you can capitalize on this week to strengthen your chances of advancing to the championship.
I'll be highlighting two players to acquire and two to trade away in deals if your league still permits trading at this point of the season. If you're unable to make trades, I'm still aiming to provide some information that can help set expectations for the next few weeks, so I encourage you to read on.
As always, before we dive into Week 15's trade targets, let's discuss some immediate takeaways from last week's recommendations.
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- Dynasty fantasy football rankings
Last Week's Recap
Two of last week's four players were on bye in Week 14, so we can skip past Alvin Kamara and Drake London. As a reminder, I suggested trading for Kamara as his schedule over the next few weeks is extremely enticing and trading away London after a big game against the Steelers. This was before the news of Desmond Ridder being named the starter in Atlanta, but if it's taken him this long to beat out Marcus Mariota, I don't have high hopes.
I was interested in Amari Cooper after he received a 43 percent target share in Deshaun Watson's season debut, but he failed to impress again last week. I mentioned that the matchup against the Bengals would not be easy, and Cooper still managed seven targets. His schedule gets much softer in the fantasy playoffs, so I'd still be comfortable with Cooper as my WR2.
After James Cook was given a season-high of 15 touches in Week 13, I expected him to eat into Devin Singletary's workload going forward. Cook didn't see a lot of volume last week, but neither did Singletary. The two backs split time in a somewhat competitive game against the Jets, so we could be seeing more of the same for the rest of the season. Hopefully, you were able to get good value for Singletary after he scored two weeks ago as this is simply not a backfield to have confidence in.
#Bills Week 14 RB Usage
- Devin Singletary: 50% snaps, 8 carries, 2 targets (43 yards)
- James Cook: 41% snaps, 4 carries, 1 target (15 yards)
- Nyheim Hines: 17% snaps, 1 carry, 1 target (7 yds)Josh Allen led them in carries, rushing yards and had the rush TD
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) December 11, 2022
Players to Target in Trades for Fantasy Football
Dalvin Cook, Minnesota Vikings
This will mark the first time I recommend buying low on a player that I previously suggested to sell high. Following Week 5, Dalvin Cook had finished four consecutive games playing on less than 70 percent of snaps as Alexander Mattison was more involved than anticipated. Of course, right after I pointed this out, Cook went on to play on almost 90 percent of snaps in Week 6 and has dominated Minnesota's backfield touches ever since. Even more importantly, he has been given almost all of the team's most valuable snaps.
Red zone snap rate over the past month:
97% - Dalvin Cook
93% - Jonathan Taylor, Jeff Wilson
87% - Rhamondre Stevenson, Samaje Perine
85% - Josh Jacobs
84% - David Montgomery
83% - Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson
82% - Austin Ekeler, Christian McCaffrey
78% - Cordarrelle Patterson— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 12, 2022
Although he's been on the field a lot, Cook has posted some mediocre fantasy output over the last four weeks. He did find the end zone against Detroit on Sunday, but totaled only 36 yards in the contest and lost a fumble. Assuming he continues to get the vast majority of work, his production should skyrocket in the fantasy playoffs.
Cook has one of the easiest remaining schedules imaginable for a running back. Over the next three weeks, the Vikings will face the Colts, Giants, and Packers, who all rank in the top-15 of most PPR fantasy points allowed to RBs. Better yet, the Vikings will likely be favored to win all three of these games, so Cook should have plenty of opportunities to run with Minnesota protecting a lead.
George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
All things considered, 2022 has been a disappointing year for George Kittle. His talent has never been in question, but his frequent usage as a blocking tight end has been odd, to say the least.
What you may find hard to believe is that he is still a top-eight fantasy tight end in any scoring format, despite not recording a top-10 weekly finish since Week 11. If that doesn't put into perspective how dreadful tight ends have been for fantasy this year, this will.
Travis Kelce is averaging more fantasy points per game than George Kittle (TE8) and Gerald Everett (TE10)… combined.
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) December 13, 2022
There is reason to believe that Kittle could surprise down the stretch. In two of the three weeks in the fantasy playoffs, Kittle gets to take on opponents that bleed points to the tight end position in the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders. Sure, he won't be able to take advantage of these dream matchups without opportunities, but more targets could also be coming his way.
Deebo Samuel, unfortunately, suffered MCL and ankle sprains last week and is expected to miss at least the next three games. In his absence, we can expect Brandon Aiyuk to step up, but the 49ers' next-best option at wide receiver is probably Jauan Jennings, who has finished with more than two receptions in a game just three times all season.
Christian McCaffrey will obviously still be heavily involved, but if there were a time to let Kittle run additional routes and earn more targets from rookie quarterback Brock Purdy, it would be now. Unless you have Travis Kelce, Kittle is likely an upgrade for your starting lineup, so see if you can sneak him onto your roster while his value is low.
Players to Trade Away for Fantasy Football
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
Courtland Sutton is banged up, the Broncos just turned in one of their best offensive showcases of the season, and Jerry Jeudy was on the receiving end of touchdowns from both Russell Wilson and Brett Rypien last week. I still have little trust in him for the fantasy playoffs.
For starters, Jeudy went off in a great matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, who have surrendered the fourth-most PPR fantasy points to wideouts this season. Wilson had arguably his best showing in a Broncos uniform, but the sample size is large enough at this point to label this an outlier.
Russell Wilson Weeks 8-13: 3 Passing TDs
Russell Wilson Week 14: 3 Passing TDs
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) December 13, 2022
Whether or not Wilson, who is currently in concussion protocol, is cleared to play in Week 15 probably has little impact on what Jeudy can do for fantasy. It will be more important to monitor Sutton's health as he would introduce a much bigger threat to Jeudy's target share than Kendall Hinton if healthy.
Regardless of his teammates' health, it is ultimately my lack of faith in the Denver offense to continue scoring at a high rate that has me wanting to capitalize on Jeudy's WR1 finish. Even with a 28-point Week 14 included, the Broncos are averaging a league-worst 14.9 points per game and have tallied the sixth-fewest total offensive yards.
Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Mixon is another player I mentioned earlier in the season as I recommended trading for him ahead of Week 4. He's currently a top-12 running back on the year despite missing time with a concussion, but I would be slightly concerned about starting him as such in the fantasy playoffs.
In Mixon's absence, Samaje Perine was extremely prolific, especially as a receiving option for Joe Burrow. It's possible that Cincinnati just wanted to ease Mixon into a workload in his first game back, but Perine played on a greater percentage of snaps last week than he had all season with a healthy Mixon. Perine also out-targeted Mixon on Sunday, which is a bit worrisome given Mixon's utilization as a pass-catcher early on.
Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine route rates
Weeks 1-9 pre-injury: Mixon 56%, Perine 25%
Week 14 return: Mixon 42%, Perine 50%Mixon played non-injured season-low 59% snaps in return. Maybe just eased back in, but did handle 16 touches. Pass-game role was looking great pre-injury.
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) December 13, 2022
Again, there's a chance we see Mixon back in a workhorse role come next week, but his three-game stretch to end the fantasy season is brutal. The Bengals will take on the Buccaneers and Patriots on the road before meeting the Bills at home in Week 17. All three of these teams boast defenses ranking in the top-10 of most difficult fantasy running back matchups in 2022.
Cincinnati has a great offense that could overcome these opponents, so by no means should you bench Mixon in any circumstance. It could be wise to shop him this week, though, and I think an undervalued asset like Dalvin Cook would be an excellent target.
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